Algosys College Basketball

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NC State

ACC · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 50 · Raw net 9.8 · Tempo 69.5 · 34 Division I games · Through 2026-03-17

All seasons
Record
20–14
20 wins
AdjNet
15.8β
rank 33 of 365
AdjO
120.1β
rank 22 of 365
AdjD
104.3β
rank 82 of 365
AdjT
69.7β
SOS
8.3β
rank 34 of 363
NCSOS
1.5β
WAB
-0.3β
rank 54 of 363
RR
-1.8β
Exp. W
21.8β

Scouting Report

CategoryOffenseDefenseD-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.118.428108.6185108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%55.03452.725651.4
TO / 100 poss.13.1718.29016.7
Offensive rebound %28.225730.518030.6
FTA / FGA %35.117536.923535.0
Shooting
3P%38.8635.528133.9
2P%52.614852.221251.7
FT%76.83569.95072.5
Style
3PA / FGA %43.444.939.5
Assists / FGM %54.649.352.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %10.79.59.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %36.936.431.4
2-pointers %43.443.948.8
Free throws %19.719.719.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size
8.5
Top Three Share of Minutes
43%
Bench Share of Minutes
31%
Players with Logged Minutes
13

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

DateOpponentResultPoss.SiteRecord
11-03N.C. CentralW 114–6672.8Home1–0
11-07UABW 94–7074.6Home2–0
11-12UNC GreensboroW 110–6474.2Home3–0
11-17VCUW 85–7973.6Home4–0
11-24Seton HallL 74–8573.9Neutral4–1
11-25Boise St.W 81–7070.1Neutral5–1
11-26TexasL 97–10272.0Neutral5–2
12-03AuburnL 73–8370.3Away5–3
12-06UNC AshevilleW 75–6367.6Home6–3
12-10LibertyW 85–4567.4Home7–3
12-13KansasL 76–77 1OT74.9Home7–4
12-17Texas SouthernW 108–7271.2Home8–4
12-21Ole MissW 76–6269.9Neutral9–4
12-31Wake ForestW 70–5771.6Home10–4
01-03VirginiaL 61–7664.5Home10–5
01-06Boston CollegeW 79–7160.6Away11–5
01-10Florida St.W 113–6977.3Away12–5
01-17Georgia TechL 74–7874.1Home12–6
01-20ClemsonW 80–76 1OT71.6Away13–6
01-24PittsburghW 81–7267.8Away14–6
01-27SyracuseW 88–6870.1Home15–6
01-31Wake ForestW 96–7869.5Away16–6
02-03SMUW 84–8370.1Away17–6
02-07Virginia TechW 82–7372.3Home18–6
02-09LouisvilleL 77–11880.4Away18–7
02-14Miami (FL)L 76–7764.8Home18–8
02-17North CarolinaW 82–5864.3Home19–8
02-24VirginiaL 61–9070.3Away19–9
02-28Notre DameL 90–96 1OT71.4Away19–10
03-02DukeL 64–9364.5Home19–11
03-07StanfordL 84–8568.7Home19–12
03-11PittsburghW 98–8865.8Neutral20–12
03-12VirginiaL 74–8168.5Neutral20–13
03-17TexasL 66–6867.7—20–14

Roster · 13 players

Player logs in 34 of 34 team games

MinutesPer 40 MinutesShootingLast Five Team Games
PlayerGMPGTeam Min%PtsRebAstStlBlkTOPF2P2P%3P3P%FTFT%eFG%TS%FTA/FGAGMPGMin%Pts/G
Darrion Williams3330:0572.2%18.66.13.71.40.42.03.388–20842.3%78–19340.4%51–6677.3%51.1%53.6%16.5%532:41 +2:3681.7%12.2 −1.8
Quadir Copeland3428:5471.5%19.35.09.02.50.23.94.2132–25651.6%23–5839.7%141–18277.5%53.0%60.1%58.0%532:24 +3:3081.0%15.2 +1.3
Paul McNeil, Jr.3428:3970.8%19.35.01.10.90.50.62.333–7345.2%105–24642.7%89–10882.4%59.7%64.1%33.9%531:08 +2:2977.8%14.8 +1.0
Ven-Allen Lubin3428:1069.6%19.410.11.20.71.31.23.4174–25468.5%3–1127.3%†107–14474.3%67.4%70.7%54.3%527:44 −0:2669.3%12.2 −1.4
Tre Holloman3225:2659.2%14.52.93.31.50.41.93.040–8944.9%51–12740.2%62–7681.6%53.9%59.1%35.2%522:21 −3:0555.9%8.0 −1.2
Matt Able3421:3053.2%16.46.41.82.30.61.83.755–11249.1%49–13835.5%43–5479.6%51.4%54.8%21.6%524:49 +3:1962.0%10.0 +1.2
Terrance Arceneaux3015:4334.3%9.76.71.32.20.90.92.126–5448.1%15–4632.6%†17–2277.3%†48.5%52.0%22.0%512:52 −2:5232.2%2.2 −1.6
Musa Sagnia3412:1130.1%7.69.30.81.91.61.55.833–5362.3%†1–425.0%†10–2245.5%†60.5%†59.2%†38.6%†56:48 −5:2217.0%0.8 −1.5
Alyn Breed2114:4522.5%12.35.23.51.80.11.25.320–4544.4%†10–2934.5%†25–2889.3%47.3%†55.0%†37.8%†29:02 −5:449.0%4.0 −0.5
Jerry Deng812:267.2%19.76.81.22.00.41.23.25–1241.7%†11–3432.4%†6–785.7%†46.7%†49.9%†15.2%†————
Scottie Ebube174:135.2%10.69.50.02.24.53.417.38–988.9%†0–0—3–1323.1%†88.9%†64.5%†144.4%†45:58 +1:4511.9%0.3 −0.9
Jordan Snell82:131.3%13.54.54.50.00.00.04.50–10.0%†2–728.6%†0–0—37.5%†37.5%†0.0%†12:37 +0:241.3%0.0 −0.8
Colt Langdon62:471.2%4.82.40.00.00.02.42.40–20.0%†0–40.0%†2–2100.0%†0.0%†14.5%†33.3%†————
Team, games with logs · per 40 team minutes34 games82.334.115.33.49.1614–116852.6%348–89738.8%556–72476.8%55.0%59.3%35.1%
Sum of players82.331.015.38.03.48.818.0Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players0.0+3.10.0+0.0+0.2

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool
$3.55M
80% Range $2.60M to $5.00M
Tier
Power 4
medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4
$3.55M in all four
Scenario medians
Players with Figures
13
3 floor only
Players in possession-share order
PlayerPoss. ShareSpeculative Best Guess80% RangeRange GraphicMedian % of Team PoolScenarios Z1 to Z4Floor PartEvidence and Flags
Darrion Williams72.6%$480K$265K to $750K13.8%$480K in all four$27KSufficient evidence
Quadir Copeland71.6%$720K$450K to $1.35M19.2%$720K in all four$27KSufficient evidence
Paul McNeil, Jr.71.3%$585K$370K to $945K16.0%$585K in all four$27KSufficient evidence
Ven-Allen Lubin69.9%$480K$285K to $730K13.7%$480K in all four$27KSufficient evidence
Tre Holloman59.1%$270K$63K to $460K8.0%$270K in all four$27KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matt Able52.6%$280K$105K to $445K8.3%$280K in all four$27KSufficient evidence
Terrance Arceneaux33.9%$185K$67K to $300K5.5%$185K in all four$27KSufficient evidence
Musa Sagnia30.5%$225K$135K to $350K6.4%$225K in all four$27KSufficient evidence
Alyn Breed23.3%$110K$40K to $185K3.3%$110K in all four$27KSufficient evidence
Jerry Deng7.5%$59K$34K to $88K1.7%$59K in all four$27KLimited evidence
Scottie Ebube5.2%$27K$15K to $44K0.8%$27K in all four$27KFloor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Jordan Snell1.3%$27K$15K to $44K0.8%$27K in all four$27KFloor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Colt Langdon1.2%$27K$15K to $44K0.8%$27K in all four$27KFloor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool—$3.55M$2.60M to $5.00M100%$3.55M in all four—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, North Carolina State University at Raleigh (NCAA Division I-FBS)
MeasureSchool-Reported AmountNote
Men's basketball revenue$18,993,591
Men's basketball expenses$11,858,910
Athletics department expenses$129,009,673
Athletics department revenue$135,830,733

Team Totalsβ

Season per 40 minutes, 34 games, 2,388 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Per 40 uses 1375 game minutes, 5 per overtime period. Definitions

StatisticTeamOpponents
Points82.375.4
Field goals made28.025.7
Field goals attempted60.157.5
3-pointers made10.19.2
3-pointers attempted26.125.8
Free throws made16.214.8
Free throws attempted21.121.2
Offensive rebounds9.710.7
Defensive rebounds24.424.6
Total rebounds34.135.4
Assists15.312.7
Blocks3.43.2
Turnovers9.112.6
StealsNo team figure. Players sum to 274.
Personal foulsNo team figure. Players sum to 620.
Minutes (derived)200.0

34 of 34 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

StatisticStatusTeam Total, Logged GamesSum of PlayersResidualToleranceTeam Total, Games Without Logs
PointsReconciled2,8282,8280±14.10
Field goals madeReconciled9629620±4.80
Field goals attemptedReconciled2,0652,0650±10.30
3-pointers madeReconciled3483480±2.00
3-pointers attemptedReconciled8978970±4.50
Free throws madeReconciled5565560±2.80
Free throws attemptedReconciled7247240±3.60
Offensive reboundsNo player split
Defensive reboundsNo player split
Total reboundsResidual shown1,1721,064+108±93.80
AssistsReconciled5255250±2.60
BlocksReconciled117116+1±2.00
TurnoversReconciled312304+8±9.40
StealsNo team figure274
Personal foulsNo team figure620
Minutes (derived)Reconciled6,8756,853+22.2±137.50

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
PlayerPoss. ShareNet and RangeβRange Graphic
Darrion Williams72.6%+2.8range +1.2 to +4.1Sufficient evidence
Quadir Copeland71.6%+4.5range +3.1 to +5.9Sufficient evidence
Paul McNeil, Jr.71.3%+3.8range +1.9 to +5.3Sufficient evidence
Ven-Allen Lubin69.9%+2.7range +1.6 to +3.8Sufficient evidence
Tre Holloman59.1%+1.1range -0.4 to +2.5Sufficient evidence
Matt Able52.6%+1.9range +0.5 to +3.0Sufficient evidence
Terrance Arceneaux33.9%+1.5range +0.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence
Musa Sagnia30.5%+3.0range +1.4 to +4.0Sufficient evidence
Alyn Breed23.3%+0.9range -0.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence
Jerry Deng7.5%+1.4range +0.7 to +2.0Limited evidence
Scottie Ebube5.2%Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Jordan Snell1.3%Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Colt Langdon1.2%Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions
+12.0range +10.9 to +12.8Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

10 valued players hold 98.5% of on-court time. 3 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 1.5%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 1.5%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value