NC State

ACC · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 50 · Raw net 9.8 · Tempo 69.5 · 34 Division I games · Through 2026-03-17

Record: 20–14; 20 wins
AdjNet: 15.8β; rank 33 of 365
AdjO: 120.1β; rank 22 of 365
AdjD: 104.3β; rank 82 of 365
AdjT: 69.7β
SOS: 8.3β; rank 34 of 363
NCSOS: 1.5β
WAB: -0.3β; rank 54 of 363
RR: -1.8β
Exp. W: 21.8β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	118.428	108.6185	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	55.034	52.7256	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	13.17	18.290	16.7
Offensive rebound %	28.2257	30.5180	30.6
FTA / FGA %	35.1175	36.9235	35.0
Shooting
3P%	38.86	35.5281	33.9
2P%	52.6148	52.2212	51.7
FT%	76.835	69.950	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	43.4	44.9	39.5
Assists / FGM %	54.6	49.3	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	10.7	9.5	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	36.9	36.4	31.4
2-pointers %	43.4	43.9	48.8
Free throws %	19.7	19.7	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 8.5
Top Three Share of Minutes: 43%
Bench Share of Minutes: 31%
Players with Logged Minutes: 13

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-03	N.C. Central	W 114–66	72.8	Home	1–0
11-07	UAB	W 94–70	74.6	Home	2–0
11-12	UNC Greensboro	W 110–64	74.2	Home	3–0
11-17	VCU	W 85–79	73.6	Home	4–0
11-24	Seton Hall	L 74–85	73.9	Neutral	4–1
11-25	Boise St.	W 81–70	70.1	Neutral	5–1
11-26	Texas	L 97–102	72.0	Neutral	5–2
12-03	Auburn	L 73–83	70.3	Away	5–3
12-06	UNC Asheville	W 75–63	67.6	Home	6–3
12-10	Liberty	W 85–45	67.4	Home	7–3
12-13	Kansas	L 76–77 1OT	74.9	Home	7–4
12-17	Texas Southern	W 108–72	71.2	Home	8–4
12-21	Ole Miss	W 76–62	69.9	Neutral	9–4
12-31	Wake Forest	W 70–57	71.6	Home	10–4
01-03	Virginia	L 61–76	64.5	Home	10–5
01-06	Boston College	W 79–71	60.6	Away	11–5
01-10	Florida St.	W 113–69	77.3	Away	12–5
01-17	Georgia Tech	L 74–78	74.1	Home	12–6
01-20	Clemson	W 80–76 1OT	71.6	Away	13–6
01-24	Pittsburgh	W 81–72	67.8	Away	14–6
01-27	Syracuse	W 88–68	70.1	Home	15–6
01-31	Wake Forest	W 96–78	69.5	Away	16–6
02-03	SMU	W 84–83	70.1	Away	17–6
02-07	Virginia Tech	W 82–73	72.3	Home	18–6
02-09	Louisville	L 77–118	80.4	Away	18–7
02-14	Miami (FL)	L 76–77	64.8	Home	18–8
02-17	North Carolina	W 82–58	64.3	Home	19–8
02-24	Virginia	L 61–90	70.3	Away	19–9
02-28	Notre Dame	L 90–96 1OT	71.4	Away	19–10
03-02	Duke	L 64–93	64.5	Home	19–11
03-07	Stanford	L 84–85	68.7	Home	19–12
03-11	Pittsburgh	W 98–88	65.8	Neutral	20–12
03-12	Virginia	L 74–81	68.5	Neutral	20–13
03-17	Texas	L 66–68	67.7	—	20–14

Roster · 13 players

Player logs in 34 of 34 team games

Team roster, per game
Column groups	Minutes			Per Game							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Darrion Williams	33	30:05	72.2%	14.0	4.6	2.8	1.1	0.3	1.5	2.5	88–208	42.3%	78–193	40.4%	51–66	77.3%	51.1%	53.6%	16.5%	5	32:41 +2:36	81.7%	12.2 −1.8
Quadir Copeland	34	28:54	71.5%	13.9	3.6	6.5	1.8	0.1	2.8	3.0	132–256	51.6%	23–58	39.7%	141–182	77.5%	53.0%	60.1%	58.0%	5	32:24 +3:30	81.0%	15.2 +1.3
Paul McNeil, Jr.	34	28:39	70.8%	13.8	3.6	0.8	0.6	0.4	0.4	1.6	33–73	45.2%	105–246	42.7%	89–108	82.4%	59.7%	64.1%	33.9%	5	31:08 +2:29	77.8%	14.8 +1.0
Ven-Allen Lubin	34	28:10	69.6%	13.6	7.1	0.9	0.5	0.9	0.8	2.4	174–254	68.5%	3–11	27.3%†	107–144	74.3%	67.4%	70.7%	54.3%	5	27:44 −0:26	69.3%	12.2 −1.4
Tre Holloman	32	25:26	59.2%	9.2	1.8	2.1	0.9	0.3	1.2	1.9	40–89	44.9%	51–127	40.2%	62–76	81.6%	53.9%	59.1%	35.2%	5	22:21 −3:05	55.9%	8.0 −1.2
Matt Able	34	21:30	53.2%	8.8	3.4	0.9	1.2	0.3	0.9	2.0	55–112	49.1%	49–138	35.5%	43–54	79.6%	51.4%	54.8%	21.6%	5	24:49 +3:19	62.0%	10.0 +1.2
Terrance Arceneaux	30	15:43	34.3%	3.8	2.6	0.5	0.9	0.4	0.4	0.8	26–54	48.1%	15–46	32.6%†	17–22	77.3%†	48.5%	52.0%	22.0%	5	12:52 −2:52	32.2%	2.2 −1.6
Musa Sagnia	34	12:11	30.1%	2.3	2.8	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.5	1.8	33–53	62.3%†	1–4	25.0%†	10–22	45.5%†	60.5%†	59.2%†	38.6%†	5	6:48 −5:22	17.0%	0.8 −1.5
Alyn Breed	21	14:45	22.5%	4.5	1.9	1.3	0.7	0.0	0.4	2.0	20–45	44.4%†	10–29	34.5%†	25–28	89.3%	47.3%†	55.0%†	37.8%†	2	9:02 −5:44	9.0%	4.0 −0.5
Jerry DengFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	8	12:26	7.2%	6.1	2.1	0.4	0.6	0.1	0.4	1.0	5–12	41.7%†	11–34	32.4%†	6–7	85.7%†	46.7%†	49.9%†	15.2%†	—	—	—	—
Scottie EbubeUnder 100 minutes	17	4:13	5.2%	1.1	1.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.4	1.8	8–9	88.9%†	0–0	—	3–13	23.1%†	88.9%†	64.5%†	144.4%†	4	5:58 +1:45	11.9%	0.3 −0.9
Jordan SnellFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	8	2:13	1.3%	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0–1	0.0%†	2–7	28.6%†	0–0	—	37.5%†	37.5%†	0.0%†	1	2:37 +0:24	1.3%	0.0 −0.8
Colt LangdonFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	6	2:47	1.2%	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0–2	0.0%†	0–4	0.0%†	2–2	100.0%†	0.0%†	14.5%†	33.3%†	—	—	—	—
Team, games with logs · per game	34 games			83.2	34.5	15.4	not published	3.4	9.2	not published	614–1168	52.6%	348–897	38.8%	556–724	76.8%	55.0%	59.3%	35.1%
Sum of players				83.2	31.3	15.4	8.1	3.4	8.9	18.2	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0.0	+3.2	0.0	not published	+0.0	+0.2	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $3.55M; 80% Range $2.60M to $5.00M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.55M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Darrion Williams	72.6%	$480K	$265K to $750K	13.8%	$480K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Quadir Copeland	71.6%	$720K	$450K to $1.35M	19.2%	$720K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Paul McNeil, Jr.	71.3%	$585K	$370K to $945K	16.0%	$585K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Ven-Allen Lubin	69.9%	$480K	$285K to $730K	13.7%	$480K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Tre Holloman	59.1%	$270K	$63K to $460K	8.0%	$270K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matt Able	52.6%	$280K	$105K to $445K	8.3%	$280K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Terrance Arceneaux	33.9%	$185K	$67K to $300K	5.5%	$185K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Musa Sagnia	30.5%	$225K	$135K to $350K	6.4%	$225K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Alyn Breed	23.3%	$110K	$40K to $185K	3.3%	$110K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Jerry Deng	7.5%	$59K	$34K to $88K	1.7%	$59K in all four	$27K	Limited evidence
Scottie Ebube	5.2%	$27K	$15K to $44K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Jordan Snell	1.3%	$27K	$15K to $44K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Colt Langdon	1.2%	$27K	$15K to $44K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.55M	$2.60M to $5.00M	100%	$3.55M in all four	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, North Carolina State University at Raleigh (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$18,993,591
Men's basketball expenses	$11,858,910
Athletics department expenses	$129,009,673
Athletics department revenue	$135,830,733

Team Totalsβ

Season per game, 34 games, 2,388 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	83.2	76.3
Field goals made	28.3	26.0
Field goals attempted	60.7	58.1
3-pointers made	10.2	9.3
3-pointers attempted	26.4	26.1
Free throws made	16.4	15.0
Free throws attempted	21.3	21.5
Offensive rebounds	9.8	10.9
Defensive rebounds	24.7	24.9
Total rebounds	34.5	35.8
Assists	15.4	12.8
Blocks	3.4	3.3
Turnovers	9.2	12.8
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 274.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 620.
Minutes (derived)	202.2	not published

34 of 34 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,828	2,828	0	±14.1	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	962	962	0	±4.8	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	2,065	2,065	0	±10.3	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	348	348	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	897	897	0	±4.5	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	556	556	0	±2.8	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	724	724	0	±3.6	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	1,172	1,064	+108	±93.8	0
Assists	Reconciled	525	525	0	±2.6	0
Blocks	Reconciled	117	116	+1	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Reconciled	312	304	+8	±9.4	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	274	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	620	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	6,875	6,853	+22.2	±137.5	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Darrion Williams	72.6%	+2.8range +1.2 to +4.1Sufficient evidence
Quadir Copeland	71.6%	+4.5range +3.1 to +5.9Sufficient evidence
Paul McNeil, Jr.	71.3%	+3.8range +1.9 to +5.3Sufficient evidence
Ven-Allen Lubin	69.9%	+2.7range +1.6 to +3.8Sufficient evidence
Tre Holloman	59.1%	+1.1range -0.4 to +2.5Sufficient evidence
Matt Able	52.6%	+1.9range +0.5 to +3.0Sufficient evidence
Terrance Arceneaux	33.9%	+1.5range +0.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence
Musa Sagnia	30.5%	+3.0range +1.4 to +4.0Sufficient evidence
Alyn Breed	23.3%	+0.9range -0.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence
Jerry Deng	7.5%	+1.4range +0.7 to +2.0Limited evidence
Scottie Ebube	5.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Jordan Snell	1.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Colt Langdon	1.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +12.0range +10.9 to +12.8Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

10 valued players hold 98.5% of on-court time. 3 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 1.5%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 1.5%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value