NC State

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for NC State, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Darrion Williams	72.6%	+2.8range +1.2 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	+6.6range +5.6 to +7.4Sufficient evidence	$480KspeculativeLoading	$265K to $750KLoading
Quadir Copeland	71.6%	+4.5range +3.1 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	+7.4range +6.6 to +8.3Sufficient evidence	$720KspeculativeLoading	$450K to $1.35MLoading
Paul McNeil, Jr.	71.3%	+3.8range +1.9 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	+7.0range +5.9 to +7.8Sufficient evidence	$585KspeculativeLoading	$370K to $945KLoading
Ven-Allen Lubin	69.9%	+2.7range +1.6 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	+6.3range +5.6 to +7.0Sufficient evidence	$480KspeculativeLoading	$285K to $730KLoading
Tre Holloman	59.1%	+1.1range -0.4 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+4.6range +3.9 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$270KspeculativeLoading	$63K to $460KLoading
Matt Able	52.6%	+1.9range +0.5 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+4.4range +3.7 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	$280KspeculativeLoading	$105K to $445KLoading
Terrance Arceneaux	33.9%	+1.5range +0.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.3 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$185KspeculativeLoading	$67K to $300KLoading
Musa Sagnia	30.5%	+3.0range +1.4 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.3 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$225KspeculativeLoading	$135K to $350KLoading
Alyn Breed	23.3%	+0.9range -0.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.5 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	$110KspeculativeLoading	$40K to $185KLoading
Jerry Deng	7.5%	+1.4range +0.7 to +2.0Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence	$59KspeculativeLoading	$34K to $88KLoading
Scottie Ebube	5.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $44KLoading
Jordan Snell	1.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $44KLoading
Colt Langdon	1.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $44KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.55M; 80% Range $2.60M to $5.00M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.55M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Darrion Williams	72.6%	$480K	$265K to $750K	13.8%	$480K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Quadir Copeland	71.6%	$720K	$450K to $1.35M	19.2%	$720K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Paul McNeil, Jr.	71.3%	$585K	$370K to $945K	16.0%	$585K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Ven-Allen Lubin	69.9%	$480K	$285K to $730K	13.7%	$480K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Tre Holloman	59.1%	$270K	$63K to $460K	8.0%	$270K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matt Able	52.6%	$280K	$105K to $445K	8.3%	$280K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Terrance Arceneaux	33.9%	$185K	$67K to $300K	5.5%	$185K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Musa Sagnia	30.5%	$225K	$135K to $350K	6.4%	$225K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Alyn Breed	23.3%	$110K	$40K to $185K	3.3%	$110K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Jerry Deng	7.5%	$59K	$34K to $88K	1.7%	$59K in all four	$27K	Limited evidence
Scottie Ebube	5.2%	$27K	$15K to $44K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Jordan Snell	1.3%	$27K	$15K to $44K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Colt Langdon	1.2%	$27K	$15K to $44K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.55M	$2.60M to $5.00M	100%	$3.55M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, North Carolina State University at Raleigh (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$18,993,591
Men's basketball expenses	$11,858,910
Athletics department expenses	$129,009,673
Athletics department revenue	$135,830,733

Coverage and exclusions

33 of 34 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 34 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$18,993,591	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$11,858,910	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched through an NCES IPEDS institution alias, with state and home-venue city agreeing.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	3
2 days	2
3 or more days	28

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	2
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology