Paul McNeil, Jr.
NC State · 2025–26 · 34 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
973:58 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 34
- Minutes per game
- 28:39
- Points per game
- 13.8
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 3.6 / 0.8
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 13.8 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Per 40 minutes | 19.3 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2.3 |
| Season totals | 470 | 121 | 28 | 21 | 13 | 14 | 56 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 138–319 | 43.3% | 9.4 | 13.1 |
| 2P | 33–73 | 45.2%† | 2.1 | 3.0 |
| 3P | 105–246 | 42.7% | 7.2 | 10.1 |
| FT | 89–108 | 82.4% | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59.7% | 64.1% | 77.1% | 33.9% | 2.00 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
NC State · Power 4 · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $585K
- 80% range $370K to $945K
- Median share of team pool
- 16.0%
- team pool $3.55M, 80% range $2.60M to $5.00M
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $585K in all four
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $27K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 71.3%
- Sufficient evidence
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. House-settlement $20.5M cap (College Sports Commission, 2026-10-01) times a modelled utilisation of about 97 percent times a men's basketball share of about 18 percent (school statements and an industry study); Power 4 schools are at or near the cap nationally.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
NC State: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | NC State | $585Kspeculative | $370K to $945K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | +3.8 | +1.9 to +5.3 | Sufficient evidence | +3.6 | +0.2 | +7.0range +5.9 to +7.8 | 3,312 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | NC State | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | +1.4 | +0.6 to +2.1 | Sufficient evidence | +1.9 | -0.6 | +0.9range +0.8 to +1.0 | 635 | Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 31:08 | 28:39 | 17:13–38:24 | |
| Points | 14.8 | 13.8 | 0.0–47.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 69.2% | 57.4% | 0.0%–100.0% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Texas | L 66–68 | 32:15 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4-11 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-12 | Virginia | L 74–81 | 33:39 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7-15 | 6-11 | 6-7 | 66.7% |
| 2026-03-11 | Pittsburgh | W 98–88 | 31:53 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 4-5 | 91.7% |
| 2026-03-07 | Stanford | L 84–85 | 23:50 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 5-7 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | Duke | L 64–93 | 34:02 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 3-3 | 37.5% |
| 2026-02-28 | Notre Dame | L 90–96 | 36:15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4-13 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 42.3% |
| 2026-02-24 | Virginia | L 61–90 | 28:41 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6-16 | 3-12 | 7-7 | 46.9% |
| 2026-02-17 | North Carolina | W 82–58 | 31:11 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 83.3% |
| 2026-02-14 | Miami (FL) | L 76–77 | 30:53 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5-8 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 87.5% |
| 2026-02-09 | Louisville | L 77–118 | 26:01 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-07 | Virginia Tech | W 82–73 | 26:46 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5-8 | 4-7 | 7-8 | 87.5% |
| 2026-02-03 | SMU | W 84–83 | 17:13 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 56.3% |
| 2026-01-31 | Wake Forest | W 96–78 | 35:43 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8-12 | 6-8 | 6-6 | 91.7% |
| 2026-01-27 | Syracuse | W 88–68 | 32:28 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 31.3% |
| 2026-01-24 | Pittsburgh | W 81–72 | 31:46 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5-11 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 68.2% |
| 2026-01-20 | Clemson | W 80–76 | 37:18 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 56.3% |
| 2026-01-17 | Georgia Tech | L 74–78 | 27:58 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3-11 | 3-10 | 3-4 | 40.9% |
| 2026-01-10 | Florida St. | W 113–69 | 29:54 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7-13 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 73.1% |
| 2026-01-06 | Boston College | W 79–71 | 32:56 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 30.0% |
| 2026-01-03 | Virginia | L 61–76 | 30:07 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 5-8 | 57.1% |
| 2025-12-31 | Wake Forest | W 70–57 | 26:00 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 5-5 | 66.7% |
| 2025-12-21 | Ole Miss | W 76–62 | 30:43 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6-12 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 75.0% |
| 2025-12-17 | Texas Southern | W 108–72 | 26:44 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12-18 | 11-17 | 12-12 | 97.2% |
| 2025-12-13 | Kansas | L 76–77 | 17:53 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 21.4% |
| 2025-12-10 | Liberty | W 85–45 | 17:18 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 75.0% |
| 2025-12-06 | UNC Asheville | W 75–63 | 17:59 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 25.0% |
| 2025-12-03 | Auburn | L 73–83 | 26:11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 38.9% |
| 2025-11-26 | Texas | L 97–102 | 38:24 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6-11 | 3-6 | 5-6 | 68.2% |
| 2025-11-25 | Boise St. | W 81–70 | 20:00 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2025-11-24 | Seton Hall | L 74–85 | 28:40 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 27.8% |
| 2025-11-17 | VCU | W 85–79 | 27:58 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-12 | UNC Greensboro | W 110–64 | 32:11 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8-16 | 6-13 | 5-5 | 68.8% |
| 2025-11-07 | UAB | W 94–70 | 26:25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6-11 | 3-8 | 3-4 | 68.2% |
| 2025-11-03 | N.C. Central | W 114–66 | 26:43 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5-10 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 70.0% |