Youngstown St.

Horz · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 173 · Raw net 0.3 · Tempo 68.6 · 29 Division I games · Through 2026-03-04

Record: 12–17; 12 wins
AdjNet: -2.1β; rank 207 of 365
AdjO: 106.1β; rank 225 of 365
AdjD: 108.1β; rank 177 of 365
AdjT: 68.2β
SOS: -2.7β; rank 257 of 363
NCSOS: -0.9β
WAB: -11.7β; rank 253 of 363
RR: -3.1β
Exp. W: 15.1β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	109.0159	108.7186	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	53.777	52.3228	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	18.8314	17.8106	16.7
Offensive rebound %	30.4182	30.7191	30.6
FTA / FGA %	31.4271	36.0209	35.0
Shooting
3P%	33.8185	35.5280	33.9
2P%	56.634	51.7178	51.7
FT%	73.3161	74.9308	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	49.4	34.3	39.5
Assists / FGM %	53.8	47.8	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	9.4	9.7	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	38.4	27.8	31.4
2-pointers %	43.9	51.7	48.8
Free throws %	17.7	20.5	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 9.3
Top Three Share of Minutes: 43%
Bench Share of Minutes: 36%
Players with Logged Minutes: 13

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-03	Pittsburgh	L 59–74	65.6	Away	0–1
11-07	Grand Canyon	W 90–81	72.3	Away	1–1
11-15	St. Bonaventure	L 80–84	70.0	Away	1–2
11-19	Toledo	L 75–92	73.5	Away	1–3
11-23	UNC Greensboro	L 62–68	72.3	Neutral	1–4
11-24	Ga. Southern	W 67–61	67.8	Neutral	2–4
11-28	Chicago St.	W 87–64	70.4	Home	3–4
12-03	Wright St.	W 69–68	68.9	Home	4–4
12-06	IU Indy	W 78–55	66.8	Away	5–4
12-17	Robert Morris	L 77–80 1OT	67.2	Away	5–5
12-20	USC Upstate	W 74–65	70.8	Home	6–5
12-29	Detroit Mercy	L 68–73	69.7	Home	6–6
01-01	Oakland	L 83–85	65.8	Home	6–7
01-04	Northern Ky.	L 79–94	78.6	Away	6–8
01-07	Purdue Fort Wayne	L 69–71	66.6	Home	6–9
01-15	Wright St.	L 83–93	65.5	Away	6–10
01-17	Cleveland St.	L 78–80	69.1	Away	6–11
01-22	Green Bay	W 88–81	66.2	Home	7–11
01-24	Milwaukee	L 64–65	67.5	Home	7–12
01-30	IU Indy	W 85–76	73.3	Home	8–12
02-04	Purdue Fort Wayne	W 90–61	63.5	Away	9–12
02-07	Robert Morris	L 66–72	64.6	Home	9–13
02-12	Oakland	W 86–82	69.8	Away	10–13
02-15	Detroit Mercy	L 70–76	71.5	Away	10–14
02-18	Cleveland St.	W 106–82	70.2	Home	11–14
02-22	Northern Ky.	W 64–58	73.9	Home	12–14
02-25	Milwaukee	L 65–78	68.5	Away	12–15
02-28	Green Bay	L 63–85	65.4	Away	12–16
03-04	Robert Morris	L 53–68	62.4	Away	12–17

Roster · 13 players

Player logs in 29 of 29 team games

Team roster, season totals
Column groups	Minutes			Season Totals							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Cris Carroll	29	31:17	77.9%	510	155	56	34	13	87	69	86–147	58.5%	82–211	38.9%	92–120	76.7%	58.4%	62.1%	33.5%	5	33:49 +2:32	84.6%	18.6 +1.0
Bryson Dawkins	29	27:46	69.1%	363	126	41	21	4	42	40	115–190	60.5%	29–95	30.5%	46–77	59.7%	55.6%	56.9%	27.0%	5	29:23 +1:37	73.5%	10.8 −1.7
Rich Rolf	28	27:14	65.4%	248	122	59	23	9	27	59	46–79	58.2%	41–115	35.7%	33–38	86.8%	55.4%	58.8%	19.6%	4	20:53 −6:20	41.8%	6.3 −2.6
Jason Nelson	29	25:34	63.7%	194	85	88	37	1	50	68	43–96	44.8%	19–69	27.5%	51–70	72.9%	43.3%	49.5%	42.4%	5	26:59 +1:25	67.5%	3.4 −3.3
Andrew King	29	16:48	41.8%	78	81	72	10	1	35	38	18–33	54.5%†	5–15	33.3%†	27–38	71.1%	53.1%†	60.3%†	79.2%†	5	13:23 −3:25	33.4%	2.0 −0.7
Cam Polak	27	16:57	39.3%	147	41	16	12	0	31	23	11–24	45.8%	34–95	35.8%	23–29	79.3%	52.1%	55.8%	24.4%	5	19:31 +2:34	48.8%	4.6 −0.8
Vladimer Salaridze	25	17:22	37.3%	211	97	34	26	8	26	55	51–97	52.6%	20–61	32.8%	49–61	80.3%	51.3%	57.1%	38.6%	5	18:51 +1:29	47.1%	12.2 +3.8
Imanuel Zorgvol	29	14:28	36.0%	151	78	10	10	56	26	81	58–88	65.9%†	3–10	30.0%†	26–40	65.0%	63.8%†	65.3%†	40.8%†	5	12:01 −2:27	30.0%	3.0 −2.2
Rontavious Blackshear	27	13:52	32.1%	170	37	18	11	3	19	48	22–40	55.0%	34–101	33.7%	24–32	75.0%	51.8%	54.8%	22.7%	5	17:58 +4:06	44.9%	7.8 +1.5
Jaiden Haynes	19	15:19	25.0%	75	29	8	10	1	6	22	18–34	52.9%†	10–40	25.0%†	9–10	90.0%†	44.6%†	47.8%†	13.5%†	3	16:38 +1:19	25.0%	4.0 +0.1
Tyler Robinett	10	11:28	9.8%	23	19	4	1	5	5	20	7–14	50.0%†	2–10	20.0%†	3–6	50.0%†	41.7%†	43.2%†	25.0%†	—	—	—	—
Shaheed SoleboFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	4	2:30	0.9%	4	0	0	0	0	2	2	1–1	100.0%†	0–2	0.0%†	2–4	50.0%†	33.3%†	42.0%†	133.3%†	1	2:11 −0:19	1.1%	0.0 −1.0
Derrick AndersonFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	3	2:43	0.7%	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2–2	100.0%†	0–2	0.0%†	0–0	—	50.0%†	50.0%†	0.0%†	1	2:20 −0:23	1.2%	2.0 +0.7
Team, games with logs · season totals	29 games			2178	959	407	not published	102	376	not published	478–845	56.6%	279–826	33.8%	385–525	73.3%	53.7%	57.3%	31.4%
Sum of players				2178	871	407	195	101	356	525	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0	+88	0	not published	+1	+20	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $235K; 80% Range $84K to $620K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $230K to $235K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Cris Carroll	78.1%	$29K	$7K to $87K	14.4%	$29K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bryson Dawkins	70.7%	$39K	$12K to $115K	15.8%	$38K to $39K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Rich Rolf	65.3%	$37K	$11K to $110K	15.0%	$37K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jason Nelson	64.7%	$35K	$11K to $105K	14.5%	$34K to $35K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Andrew King	41.3%	$6K	$1K to $27K	3.8%	$6K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cam Polak	38.9%	$10K	$2K to $36K	5.7%	$10K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Vladimer Salaridze	36.8%	$16K	$4K to $57K	7.5%	$16K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Imanuel Zorgvol	35.1%	$17K	$4K to $57K	7.7%	$17K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Rontavious Blackshear	32.1%	$9K	$1K to $30K	4.8%	$9K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaiden Haynes	24.7%	$4K	$1K to $17K	2.2%	$4K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyler Robinett	10.6%	$3K	$1K to $11K	1.7%	$3K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Shaheed Solebo	0.9%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Derrick Anderson	0.7%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$235K	$84K to $620K	100%	$230K to $235K	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Youngstown State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,285,833	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,285,833
Athletics department expenses	$23,268,696
Athletics department revenue	$23,268,696

Team Totalsβ

Season totals, 29 games, 1,998 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	2,178	2,172
Field goals made	757	763
Field goals attempted	1,671	1,652
3-pointers made	279	201
3-pointers attempted	826	566
Free throws made	385	445
Free throws attempted	525	594
Offensive rebounds	298	293
Defensive rebounds	661	681
Total rebounds	959	974
Assists	407	365
Blocks	102	82
Turnovers	376	356
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 195.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 525.
Minutes (derived)	5,825	not published

29 of 29 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,178	2,178	0	±10.9	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	757	757	0	±3.8	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,671	1,671	0	±8.4	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	279	279	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	826	826	0	±4.1	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	385	385	0	±2.0	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	525	525	0	±2.6	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	959	871	+88	±76.7	0
Assists	Reconciled	407	407	0	±2.0	0
Blocks	Reconciled	102	101	+1	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	376	356	+20	±11.3	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	195	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	525	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	5,825	5,813	+11.8	±116.5	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Cris Carroll	78.1%	+0.6range -0.4 to +1.6Sufficient evidence
Bryson Dawkins	70.7%	+1.2range +0.4 to +2.4Sufficient evidence
Rich Rolf	65.3%	+1.3range +0.4 to +2.6Sufficient evidence
Jason Nelson	64.7%	+1.2range +0.1 to +2.5Sufficient evidence
Andrew King	41.3%	-1.4range -2.5 to -0.1Sufficient evidence
Cam Polak	38.9%	-0.4range -1.5 to +0.7Sufficient evidence
Vladimer Salaridze	36.8%	+0.7range -0.8 to +2.2Sufficient evidence
Imanuel Zorgvol	35.1%	+0.9range -1.0 to +2.9Sufficient evidence
Rontavious Blackshear	32.1%	-0.4range -1.7 to +0.9Sufficient evidence
Jaiden Haynes	24.7%	-1.6range -2.5 to -0.6Sufficient evidence
Tyler Robinett	10.6%	-0.9range -1.7 to -0.2Limited evidence
Shaheed Solebo	0.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Derrick Anderson	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +9.9range +9.1 to +10.8Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

11 valued players hold 99.7% of on-court time. 2 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 0.3%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 2.1%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value