Youngstown St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Youngstown St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Cris Carroll	78.1%	+0.6range -0.4 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+5.2range +4.5 to +5.8Sufficient evidence	$29KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $87KLoading
Bryson Dawkins	70.7%	+1.2range +0.4 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+5.0range +4.5 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	$39KspeculativeLoading	$12K to $115KLoading
Rich Rolf	65.3%	+1.3range +0.4 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+4.7range +4.2 to +5.2Sufficient evidence	$37KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $110KLoading
Jason Nelson	64.7%	+1.2range +0.1 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+4.6range +4.1 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$35KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $105KLoading
Andrew King	41.3%	-1.4range -2.5 to -0.1Sufficient evidence	+2.3range +1.9 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $27KLoading
Cam Polak	38.9%	-0.4range -1.5 to +0.7Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $36KLoading
Vladimer Salaridze	36.8%	+0.7range -0.8 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.2 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $57KLoading
Imanuel Zorgvol	35.1%	+0.9range -1.0 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.0 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $57KLoading
Rontavious Blackshear	32.1%	-0.4range -1.7 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+2.0range +1.6 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $30KLoading
Jaiden Haynes	24.7%	-1.6range -2.5 to -0.6Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.1 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $17KLoading
Tyler Robinett	10.6%	-0.9range -1.7 to -0.2Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.5 to +0.7Limited evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $11KLoading
Shaheed Solebo	0.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Derrick Anderson	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $235K; 80% Range $84K to $620K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $230K to $235K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Cris Carroll	78.1%	$29K	$7K to $87K	14.4%	$29K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bryson Dawkins	70.7%	$39K	$12K to $115K	15.8%	$38K to $39K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Rich Rolf	65.3%	$37K	$11K to $110K	15.0%	$37K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jason Nelson	64.7%	$35K	$11K to $105K	14.5%	$34K to $35K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Andrew King	41.3%	$6K	$1K to $27K	3.8%	$6K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cam Polak	38.9%	$10K	$2K to $36K	5.7%	$10K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Vladimer Salaridze	36.8%	$16K	$4K to $57K	7.5%	$16K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Imanuel Zorgvol	35.1%	$17K	$4K to $57K	7.7%	$17K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Rontavious Blackshear	32.1%	$9K	$1K to $30K	4.8%	$9K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaiden Haynes	24.7%	$4K	$1K to $17K	2.2%	$4K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tyler Robinett	10.6%	$3K	$1K to $11K	1.7%	$3K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Shaheed Solebo	0.9%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Derrick Anderson	0.7%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$235K	$84K to $620K	100%	$230K to $235K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Youngstown State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,285,833	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,285,833
Athletics department expenses	$23,268,696
Athletics department revenue	$23,268,696

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 29 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 29 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,285,833	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,285,833	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	2
3 or more days	25

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.2
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology