Algosys College Basketball

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Northern Ky.

Horz · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 124 · Raw net 3.1 · Tempo 70.9 · 31 Division I games · Through 2026-03-09

All seasons
Record
17–14
17 wins
AdjNet
0.3β
rank 172 of 365
AdjO
109.2β
rank 153 of 365
AdjD
108.9β
rank 194 of 365
AdjT
70.5β
SOS
-2.8β
rank 259 of 363
NCSOS
-1.0β
WAB
-8.5β
rank 195 of 363
RR
-1.2β
Exp. W
18.2β

Scouting Report

CategoryOffenseDefenseD-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.113.281110.1221108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%53.29454.230551.4
TO / 100 poss.16.315518.66816.7
Offensive rebound %32.211831.623630.6
FTA / FGA %35.915937.224535.0
Shooting
3P%33.619336.633233.9
2P%55.54953.826951.7
FT%72.120871.613172.5
Style
3PA / FGA %44.938.139.5
Assists / FGM %55.552.652.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %9.87.79.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %34.231.031.4
2-pointers %46.349.348.8
Free throws %19.519.719.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size
7.9
Top Three Share of Minutes
45%
Bench Share of Minutes
27%
Players with Logged Minutes
11

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

DateOpponentResultPoss.SiteRecord
11-08TennesseeL 56–9569.6Away0–1
11-12ETSUL 63–7572.2Away0–2
11-20Central Mich.W 90–6668.4Away1–2
11-24Eastern Ky.W 82–7171.0Home2–2
11-26WoffordW 93–8374.3Home3–2
11-29Boston U.W 74–6562.2Home4–2
12-03Cleveland St.W 95–8071.7Home5–2
12-06Purdue Fort WayneL 77–7975.5Away5–3
12-13BellarmineW 80–7670.1Away6–3
12-17OaklandL 77–8272.7Home6–4
12-21Col. of CharlestonL 74–8573.7Home6–5
12-29Robert MorrisW 79–7770.7Away7–5
01-01IU IndyW 81–7270.4Home8–5
01-04Youngstown St.W 94–7978.6Home9–5
01-09MilwaukeeW 85–6763.8Away10–5
01-11Green BayL 78–8060.3Away10–6
01-15Detroit MercyW 96–7175.0Home11–6
01-17Robert MorrisL 89–92 1OT84.2Home11–7
01-24Wright St.L 80–8870.3Away11–8
01-30Detroit MercyL 77–9070.6Away11–9
02-01OaklandL 65–7676.3Away11–10
02-04Green BayL 84–87 1OT75.5Home11–11
02-07MilwaukeeW 67–6262.6Home12–11
02-12IU IndyW 84–8170.7Away13–11
02-18Purdue Fort WayneW 87–7171.2Home14–11
02-22Youngstown St.L 58–6473.9Away14–12
02-25Cleveland St.W 81–7072.2Away15–12
02-28Wright St.L 91–9270.0Home15–13
03-04OaklandW 85–8473.0Away16–13
03-08Green BayW 96–7666.0Neutral17–13
03-09Wright St.L 90–10378.5Neutral17–14

Roster · 12 players

Player logs in 31 of 31 team games

MinutesPer GameShootingLast Five Team Games
PlayerGMPGTeam Min%PtsRebAstStlBlkTOPF2P2P%3P3P%FTFT%eFG%TS%FTA/FGAGMPGMin%Pts/G
Dan Gherezgher3130:0474.6%15.83.22.80.80.12.32.472–15646.2%94–24837.9%65–8873.9%52.7%55.5%21.8%522:28 −7:3656.2%16.0 +0.2
LJ Wells3031:0174.4%15.17.12.21.10.91.82.8144–23561.3%13–4727.7%†127–18668.3%58.0%62.4%66.0%531:44 +0:4379.3%20.8 +5.7
Donovan Oday3129:3873.5%18.93.61.91.90.52.22.9136–22061.8%55–16932.5%149–18182.3%56.2%62.5%46.5%530:50 +1:1177.1%19.0 +0.1
Tae Dozier3129:3273.3%8.35.42.31.61.31.02.858–8965.2%35–10633.0%37–5567.3%56.7%58.9%28.2%529:08 −0:2572.8%6.2 −2.1
Ethan Elliott2928:4766.8%4.82.84.41.00.11.41.836–9438.3%17–7123.9%17–3548.6%37.3%38.8%21.2%533:31 +4:4383.8%4.4 −0.4
Kael Robinson2826:4559.9%13.94.51.30.70.51.62.568–13849.3%63–16737.7%64–7981.0%53.3%57.2%25.9%528:27 +1:4271.1%17.6 +3.7
Donovan Rakotonanahary2912:1328.4%3.02.10.40.60.10.31.737–4877.1%†1–333.3%†11–2152.4%†75.5%†73.0%†41.2%†513:42 +1:2834.2%3.8 +0.8
Shawn Nelson2411:0821.4%2.31.60.50.30.00.80.914–3638.9%†5–2520.0%†13–2552.0%35.2%†38.9%†41.0%†31:10 −9:581.7%0.0 −2.3
Bryce Darbyshire225:259.5%0.70.70.10.40.00.30.65–862.5%†2–1118.2%†0–10.0%†42.1%†41.2%†5.3%†28:21 +2:568.3%1.0 +0.3
Ryan Tolliver195:579.0%0.91.40.20.30.10.21.17–1353.8%†0–20.0%†3–3100.0%†46.7%†52.1%†20.0%†36:25 +0:289.6%0.7 −0.2
Addison Archer185:388.1%0.71.10.20.10.20.21.13–837.5%†1–250.0%†4–666.7%†45.0%†51.4%†60.0%†23:48 −1:513.8%0.0 −0.7
Mitchel Minor10:000.0%0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00–0—0–0—0–0————————
Team, games with logs · per game31 games80.934.315.53.511.6580–104555.5%286–85133.6%490–68072.1%53.2%57.1%35.9%
Sum of players80.931.015.58.43.511.318.7Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players0.0+3.30.00.0+0.4

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool
$225K
80% Range $82K to $600K
Tier
Low and other
low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4
$205K to $260K
Scenario medians
Players with Figures
11

The widest scenario range, $97K to $705K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
PlayerPoss. ShareSpeculative Best Guess80% RangeRange GraphicMedian % of Team PoolScenarios Z1 to Z4Floor PartEvidence and Flags
LJ Wells74.5%$40K$13K to $120K17.8%$37K to $47K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dan Gherezgher74.1%$11K$1K to $44K6.8%$10K to $12K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tae Dozier73.9%$22K$5K to $65K11.9%$20K to $25K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Donovan Oday73.3%$48K$17K to $150K21.0%$45K to $56K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ethan Elliott68.1%$31K$9K to $90K14.1%$28K to $36K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kael Robinson60.9%$34K$11K to $105K14.4%$31K to $39K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Donovan Rakotonanahary27.9%$5K$1K to $19K3.0%$5K to $6K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Shawn Nelson20.7%$3K$1K to $11K1.3%$3K to $4K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ryan Tolliver9.5%$4K$1K to $11K1.8%$3K to $4K$2KLimited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bryce Darbyshire9.4%$4K$1K to $11K1.8%$3K to $4K$2KLimited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Addison Archer7.8%$3K$1K to $9K1.5%$3K to $4K$2KLimited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool—$225K$82K to $600K100%$205K to $260K—

1 rostered player has no figure: no recorded possessions or no matched player record.

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Northern Kentucky University (NCAA Division I without football)
MeasureSchool-Reported AmountNote
Men's basketball revenue$2,900,297Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses$2,900,297
Athletics department expenses$18,765,310
Athletics department revenue$18,765,310

Team Totalsβ

Season per game, 31 games, 2,215 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

StatisticTeamOpponents
Points80.978.7
Field goals made27.927.5
Field goals attempted61.258.2
3-pointers made9.28.1
3-pointers attempted27.522.2
Free throws made15.815.5
Free throws attempted21.921.7
Offensive rebounds11.710.5
Defensive rebounds22.624.5
Total rebounds34.335.0
Assists15.514.5
Blocks3.52.6
Turnovers11.613.3
StealsNo team figure. Players sum to 259.
Personal foulsNo team figure. Players sum to 580.
Minutes (derived)201.6

31 of 31 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

StatisticStatusTeam Total, Logged GamesSum of PlayersResidualToleranceTeam Total, Games Without Logs
PointsReconciled2,5082,5080±12.50
Field goals madeReconciled8668660±4.30
Field goals attemptedReconciled1,8961,8960±9.50
3-pointers madeReconciled2862860±2.00
3-pointers attemptedReconciled8518510±4.30
Free throws madeReconciled4904900±2.50
Free throws attemptedReconciled6806800±3.40
Offensive reboundsNo player split
Defensive reboundsNo player split
Total reboundsResidual shown1,062960+102±85.00
AssistsReconciled4814810±2.40
BlocksReconciled1101100±2.00
TurnoversResidual shown361349+12±10.80
StealsNo team figure259
Personal foulsNo team figure580
Minutes (derived)Reconciled6,2506,236+14.3±125.00

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
PlayerPoss. ShareNet and RangeβRange Graphic
LJ Wells74.5%+2.0range +0.8 to +3.4Sufficient evidence
Dan Gherezgher74.1%-1.0range -2.3 to +0.4Sufficient evidence
Tae Dozier73.9%+0.5range -0.6 to +1.6Sufficient evidence
Donovan Oday73.3%+2.8range +1.7 to +3.9Sufficient evidence
Ethan Elliott68.1%+1.5range +0.3 to +3.0Sufficient evidence
Kael Robinson60.9%+2.2range +1.1 to +3.3Sufficient evidence
Donovan Rakotonanahary27.9%-1.2range -2.2 to +0.2Sufficient evidence
Shawn Nelson20.7%-2.8range -3.7 to -1.9Sufficient evidence
Ryan Tolliver9.5%-0.3range -1.2 to +0.5Limited evidence
Bryce Darbyshire9.4%-0.5range -1.3 to +0.4Limited evidence
Addison Archer7.8%-0.8range -1.4 to -0.2Limited evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions
+10.4range +9.6 to +11.3Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

11 valued players hold 100.0% of on-court time. 0 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 0.0%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 5.3%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value