Illinois St.

MVC · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 73 · Raw net 7.5 · Tempo 67.5 · 35 Division I games · Through 2026-04-02

Record: 22–13; 22 wins
AdjNet: 8.0β; rank 79 of 365
AdjO: 110.0β; rank 136 of 365
AdjD: 102.0β; rank 47 of 365
AdjT: 67.6β
SOS: 1.9β; rank 110 of 363
NCSOS: -2.5β
WAB: -3.8β; rank 89 of 363
RR: -0.2β
Exp. W: 22.2β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	109.5144	102.143	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	53.678	49.890	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	16.9193	16.0223	16.7
Offensive rebound %	28.0267	25.413	30.6
FTA / FGA %	31.6266	32.3113	35.0
Shooting
3P%	34.9126	33.0122	33.9
2P%	54.669	49.995	51.7
FT%	71.2234	68.410	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	43.3	34.9	39.5
Assists / FGM %	51.3	51.9	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	6.2	9.1	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	34.9	28.4	31.4
2-pointers %	47.8	53.4	48.8
Free throws %	17.3	18.2	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 9.1
Top Three Share of Minutes: 41%
Bench Share of Minutes: 36%
Players with Logged Minutes: 12

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-06	Ohio	L 68–72	70.0	Away	0–1
11-09	Cornell	W 76–65	72.5	Home	1–1
11-14	Southern California	L 67–87	68.9	Neutral	1–2
11-16	Long Beach St.	W 82–80	68.0	Away	2–2
11-23	Coastal Carolina	W 94–42	74.9	Home	3–2
11-27	Charlotte	W 79–69	65.8	Neutral	4–2
11-28	Furman	W 72–65	66.9	Neutral	5–2
12-03	Eastern Ky.	W 89–78	71.2	Home	6–2
12-06	Chicago St.	W 95–53	67.1	Home	7–2
12-13	Utah St.	L 78–83	66.9	Neutral	7–3
12-18	Southern Ill.	W 75–68	70.0	Away	8–3
12-21	Indiana St.	W 85–65	68.0	Home	9–3
12-29	Drake	W 73–56	66.1	Away	10–3
01-01	Evansville	W 73–47	71.6	Home	11–3
01-07	Valparaiso	L 71–77	64.8	Away	11–4
01-10	UIC	L 59–63 1OT	69.3	Home	11–5
01-14	Indiana St.	L 89–94	68.8	Away	11–6
01-17	Bradley	W 88–62	66.5	Home	12–6
01-21	UNI	W 59–54	64.6	Home	13–6
01-24	Belmont	L 69–80	69.7	Away	13–7
01-28	Murray St.	W 70–65	68.9	Away	14–7
02-03	Southern Ill.	L 50–54	67.9	Home	14–8
02-06	Drake	W 86–76	72.2	Home	15–8
02-09	Evansville	L 80–88	66.3	Away	15–9
02-12	Valparaiso	W 86–64	68.4	Home	16–9
02-15	UIC	L 56–83	72.8	Away	16–10
02-18	Murray St.	W 78–61	64.9	Home	17–10
02-21	Bradley	L 60–74	64.2	Away	17–11
02-25	UNI	W 71–69	62.1	Away	18–11
03-01	Belmont	W 81–74	61.8	Home	19–11
03-06	UNI	L 52–74	62.3	Neutral	19–12
03-18	Kent St.	W 79–58	69.1	—	20–12
03-22	Wake Forest	W 78–75	69.5	—	21–12
03-25	Dayton	W 61–55	62.8	—	22–12
04-02	Auburn	L 66–88	64.3	—	22–13

Roster · 12 players

Player logs in 35 of 35 team games

Team roster, per 40 minutes
Column groups	Minutes			Per 40 Minutes							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Johnny Kinziger	35	32:28	80.9%	14.3	3.1	4.1	1.5	0.1	2.7	2.0	80–168	47.6%	60–184	32.6%	65–84	77.4%	48.3%	52.1%	23.9%	5	34:14 +1:46	85.6%	11.8 +0.2
Boden Skunberg	34	27:17	66.0%	14.2	6.5	2.1	0.7	0.1	1.8	3.2	58–117	49.6%	59–152	38.8%	37–52	71.2%	54.5%	56.5%	19.3%	5	26:52 −0:25	67.2%	5.6 −4.1
Ty Pence	35	23:35	58.7%	16.2	7.5	2.7	0.8	0.5	1.6	2.9	101–165	61.2%	27–75	36.0%	51–73	69.9%	59.0%	61.4%	30.4%	5	24:58 +1:23	62.4%	11.4 +1.9
Landon Wolf	35	23:20	58.1%	13.0	8.3	1.3	1.2	0.2	1.4	3.2	53–82	64.6%	41–107	38.3%	36–44	81.8%	60.6%	63.6%	23.3%	5	31:02 +7:42	77.6%	10.2 +2.6
Ty'Reek Coleman	34	22:40	54.9%	17.7	4.8	3.1	1.6	0.3	2.9	2.8	80–146	54.8%	36–87	41.4%	73–104	70.2%	57.5%	61.2%	44.6%	5	18:41 −4:00	46.7%	7.0 −3.0
Chase Walker	32	22:38	51.6%	24.2	9.7	3.8	1.7	1.0	4.0	6.0	148–257	57.6%	9–31	29.0%†	115–164	70.1%	56.1%	60.8%	56.9%	5	22:15 −0:24	55.6%	14.2 +0.5
Mason Klabo	33	15:59	37.5%	13.7	5.8	2.9	0.6	0.3	1.3	3.6	31–56	55.4%	31–82	37.8%	25–32	78.1%	56.2%	59.2%	23.2%	5	19:38 +3:39	49.1%	4.6 −0.9
Landon Moore	35	13:46	34.3%	10.1	3.8	2.7	0.9	0.0	1.4	3.4	24–46	52.2%	19–58	32.8%	17–31	54.8%	50.5%	51.9%	29.8%	5	10:47 −2:59	27.0%	0.4 −3.1
Brandon Lieb	35	12:23	30.9%	9.4	12.5	2.1	0.6	2.8	2.5	5.0	41–80	51.2%†	0–0	—	20–34	58.8%	51.2%†	53.7%†	42.5%†	5	9:35 −2:48	24.0%	1.4 −1.5
Jack Daugherty	28	10:07	20.2%	9.9	4.9	0.6	0.7	0.1	0.7	3.0	0–8	0.0%†	20–87	23.0%	10–13	76.9%†	31.6%†	34.7%†	13.7%†	2	3:26 −6:41	3.4%	1.5 −1.0
Cameron BarnesUnder 100 minutes	12	5:23	4.6%	2.5	9.3	1.9	0.0	1.2	2.5	2.5	2–5	40.0%†	0–1	0.0%†	0–0	—	33.3%†	33.3%†	0.0%†	—	—	—	—
Ty BlakeFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	7	1:57	1.0%	11.7	5.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2–5	40.0%†	0–1	0.0%†	0–0	—	33.3%†	33.3%†	0.0%†	1	0:17 −1:40	0.1%	0.0 −0.6
Team, games with logs · per 40 team minutes	35 games			73.9	35.0	13.5	not published	2.3	11.4	not published	620–1135	54.6%	302–865	34.9%	449–631	71.2%	53.6%	57.0%	31.6%
Sum of players				73.9	32.5	13.5	5.5	2.3	10.8	16.7	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0.0	+2.6	0.0	not published	0.0	+0.6	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $665K; 80% Range $300K to $1.45M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $600K to $690K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Johnny Kinziger	80.8%	$77K	$24K to $195K	13.5%	$70K to $80K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Boden Skunberg	66.2%	$40K	$6K to $120K	7.4%	$37K to $42K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Landon Wolf	58.6%	$55K	$14K to $145K	9.7%	$49K to $57K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ty Pence	58.1%	$81K	$33K to $195K	12.5%	$73K to $84K	$5K	Sufficient evidence
Ty'Reek Coleman	55.4%	$92K	$37K to $230K	13.7%	$84K to $97K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chase Walker	51.8%	$160K	$60K to $435K	22.1%	$145K to $165K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mason Klabo	38.0%	$45K	$16K to $110K	7.5%	$41K to $48K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Landon Moore	33.9%	$20K	$4K to $61K	3.7%	$18K to $21K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brandon Lieb	31.5%	$16K	$4K to $53K	2.9%	$15K to $17K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jack Daugherty	20.3%	$17K	$5K to $46K	3.0%	$15K to $17K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cameron Barnes	4.4%	$5K	$2K to $13K	0.8%	$5K in all four	$5K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Ty Blake	1.0%	$5K	$2K to $13K	0.8%	$5K in all four	$5K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$665K	$300K to $1.45M	100%	$600K to $690K	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Illinois State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,167,173	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,167,173
Athletics department expenses	$30,244,468
Athletics department revenue	$30,244,468

Team Totalsβ

Season per 40 minutes, 35 games, 2,369 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Per 40 uses 1405 game minutes, 5 per overtime period. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	73.9	68.8
Field goals made	26.2	24.9
Field goals attempted	56.9	56.6
3-pointers made	8.6	6.5
3-pointers attempted	24.6	19.8
Free throws made	12.8	12.5
Free throws attempted	18.0	18.3
Offensive rebounds	9.3	8.8
Defensive rebounds	25.8	23.8
Total rebounds	35.0	32.6
Assists	13.5	12.9
Blocks	2.3	2.9
Turnovers	11.4	10.8
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 193.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 588.
Minutes (derived)	200.0	not published

35 of 35 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,595	2,595	0	±13.0	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	922	922	0	±4.6	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	2,000	2,000	0	±10.0	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	302	302	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	865	865	0	±4.3	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	449	449	0	±2.2	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	631	631	0	±3.2	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Reconciled	1,230	1,140	+90	±98.4	0
Assists	Reconciled	473	473	0	±2.4	0
Blocks	Reconciled	80	80	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	400	379	+21	±12.0	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	193	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	588	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	7,025	7,005	+19.9	±140.5	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Johnny Kinziger	80.8%	+1.5range +0.5 to +2.7Sufficient evidence
Boden Skunberg	66.2%	+0.2range -1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence
Landon Wolf	58.6%	+1.4range +0.1 to +2.6Sufficient evidence
Ty Pence	58.1%	+2.7range +1.6 to +3.8Sufficient evidence
Ty'Reek Coleman	55.4%	+3.4range +1.9 to +4.9Sufficient evidence
Chase Walker	51.8%	+6.2range +4.9 to +7.4Sufficient evidence
Mason Klabo	38.0%	+1.9range +0.7 to +3.1Sufficient evidence
Landon Moore	33.9%	-0.2range -1.6 to +1.1Sufficient evidence
Brandon Lieb	31.5%	-0.8range -1.8 to +0.4Sufficient evidence
Jack Daugherty	20.3%	+0.2range -1.2 to +1.6Sufficient evidence
Cameron Barnes	4.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Ty Blake	1.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +11.2range +10.3 to +12.0Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

10 valued players hold 98.9% of on-court time. 2 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 1.1%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 0.0%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value