Illinois St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Illinois St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Johnny Kinziger	80.8%	+1.5range +0.5 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	+7.1range +6.3 to +7.9Sufficient evidence	$77KspeculativeLoading	$24K to $195KLoading
Boden Skunberg	66.2%	+0.2range -1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.3 to +5.8Sufficient evidence	$40KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $120KLoading
Landon Wolf	58.6%	+1.4range +0.1 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.4 to +5.8Sufficient evidence	$55KspeculativeLoading	$14K to $145KLoading
Ty Pence	58.1%	+2.7range +1.6 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	+5.7range +5.0 to +6.3Sufficient evidence	$81KspeculativeLoading	$33K to $195KLoading
Ty'Reek Coleman	55.4%	+3.4range +1.9 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	+5.7range +5.0 to +6.5Sufficient evidence	$92KspeculativeLoading	$37K to $230KLoading
Chase Walker	51.8%	+6.2range +4.9 to +7.4Sufficient evidence	+6.5range +5.9 to +7.1Sufficient evidence	$160KspeculativeLoading	$60K to $435KLoading
Mason Klabo	38.0%	+1.9range +0.7 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +3.0 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$45KspeculativeLoading	$16K to $110KLoading
Landon Moore	33.9%	-0.2range -1.6 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$20KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $61KLoading
Brandon Lieb	31.5%	-0.8range -1.8 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.8 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $53KLoading
Jack Daugherty	20.3%	+0.2range -1.2 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.3 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $46KLoading
Cameron Barnes	4.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$5Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $13KLoading
Ty Blake	1.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$5Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$2K to $13KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $665K; 80% Range $300K to $1.45M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $600K to $690K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Johnny Kinziger	80.8%	$77K	$24K to $195K	13.5%	$70K to $80K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Boden Skunberg	66.2%	$40K	$6K to $120K	7.4%	$37K to $42K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Landon Wolf	58.6%	$55K	$14K to $145K	9.7%	$49K to $57K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ty Pence	58.1%	$81K	$33K to $195K	12.5%	$73K to $84K	$5K	Sufficient evidence
Ty'Reek Coleman	55.4%	$92K	$37K to $230K	13.7%	$84K to $97K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chase Walker	51.8%	$160K	$60K to $435K	22.1%	$145K to $165K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mason Klabo	38.0%	$45K	$16K to $110K	7.5%	$41K to $48K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Landon Moore	33.9%	$20K	$4K to $61K	3.7%	$18K to $21K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brandon Lieb	31.5%	$16K	$4K to $53K	2.9%	$15K to $17K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jack Daugherty	20.3%	$17K	$5K to $46K	3.0%	$15K to $17K	$5K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cameron Barnes	4.4%	$5K	$2K to $13K	0.8%	$5K in all four	$5K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Ty Blake	1.0%	$5K	$2K to $13K	0.8%	$5K in all four	$5K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$665K	$300K to $1.45M	100%	$600K to $690K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Illinois State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,167,173	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,167,173
Athletics department expenses	$30,244,468
Athletics department revenue	$30,244,468

Coverage and exclusions

34 of 35 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 35 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$3,167,173	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,167,173	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	1
3 or more days	32

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology