Chase Walker
Illinois St. · 2025–26 · 32 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
724:27 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 32
- Minutes per game
- 22:38
- Points per game
- 13.7
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 5.5 / 2.1
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 13.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 3.4 |
| Per 40 minutes | 24.2 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 |
| Season totals | 438 | 175 | 68 | 30 | 18 | 73 | 108 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 157–288 | 54.5% | 9.0 | 15.9 |
| 2P | 148–257 | 57.6% | 8.0 | 14.2 |
| 3P | 9–31 | 29.0%† | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| FT | 115–164 | 70.1% | 5.1 | 9.1 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.1% | 60.8% | 10.8% | 56.9% | 0.93 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Illinois St · Mid and high major · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $160K
- 80% range $60K to $435K
- Median share of team pool
- 22.1%
- team pool $665K, 80% range $300K to $1.45M
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $145K to $165K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $5K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 51.8%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Illinois St: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Illinois St | $160Kspeculative | $60K to $435K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | +6.2 | +4.9 to +7.4 | Sufficient evidence | +2.0 | +4.2 | +6.5range +5.9 to +7.1 | 2,387 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | Illinois St | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | +4.0 | +2.9 to +5.2 | Sufficient evidence | +2.1 | +1.9 | +5.0range +4.4 to +5.7 | 2,324 | Season detail | |
| 2024 | Illinois St | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -1.8 | -2.2 to -1.1 | Limited evidence | -1.8 | +0.0 | +0.3range +0.2 to +0.4 | 325 | Limited evidence: 300 to 599 on-court possessions. Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 22:15 | 22:38 | 6:08–32:26 | |
| Points | 14.2 | 13.7 | 6.0–22.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 62.2% | 57.5% | 0.0%–112.5% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Auburn | L 66–88 | 21:55 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 75.0% |
| 2026-03-25 | Dayton | W 61–55 | 26:11 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 5-11 | 80.0% |
| 2026-03-22 | Wake Forest | W 78–75 | 16:17 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 5-5 | 45.5% |
| 2026-03-18 | Kent St. | W 79–58 | 23:10 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8-11 | 2-3 | 1-3 | 81.8% |
| 2026-03-06 | UNI | L 52–74 | 23:40 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 7-13 | 28.6% |
| 2026-03-01 | Belmont | W 81–74 | 10:48 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 68.8% |
| 2026-02-25 | UNI | W 71–69 | 20:56 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 71.4% |
| 2026-02-12 | Valparaiso | W 86–64 | 6:08 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 112.5% |
| 2026-02-09 | Evansville | L 80–88 | 16:24 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-06 | Drake | W 86–76 | 23:20 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8-10 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 85.0% |
| 2026-02-03 | Southern Ill. | L 50–54 | 22:05 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5-13 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 42.3% |
| 2026-01-28 | Murray St. | W 70–65 | 29:19 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8-12 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 70.8% |
| 2026-01-24 | Belmont | L 69–80 | 29:08 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 62.5% |
| 2026-01-21 | UNI | W 59–54 | 25:16 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-01-17 | Bradley | W 88–62 | 22:46 | 20 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8-12 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 66.7% |
| 2026-01-14 | Indiana St. | L 89–94 | 26:44 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 9-11 | 60.0% |
| 2026-01-10 | UIC | L 59–63 | 32:26 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-07 | Valparaiso | L 71–77 | 30:15 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8-19 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 42.1% |
| 2026-01-01 | Evansville | W 73–47 | 27:27 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9-16 | 0-1 | 4-7 | 56.3% |
| 2025-12-29 | Drake | W 73–56 | 22:24 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 85.7% |
| 2025-12-21 | Indiana St. | W 85–65 | 20:51 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 61.5% |
| 2025-12-18 | Southern Ill. | W 75–68 | 31:00 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7-13 | 0-2 | 1-5 | 53.8% |
| 2025-12-13 | Utah St. | L 78–83 | 29:06 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 66.7% |
| 2025-12-06 | Chicago St. | W 95–53 | 18:48 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 100.0% |
| 2025-12-03 | Eastern Ky. | W 89–78 | 27:50 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 50.0% |
| 2025-11-28 | Furman | W 72–65 | 20:32 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 5-7 | 75.0% |
| 2025-11-27 | Charlotte | W 79–69 | 19:09 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 10-12 | 50.0% |
| 2025-11-23 | Coastal Carolina | W 94–42 | 18:35 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 42.9% |
| 2025-11-16 | Long Beach St. | W 82–80 | 27:00 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 13-14 | 33.3% |
| 2025-11-14 | Southern California | L 67–87 | 20:03 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2-10 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 20.0% |
| 2025-11-09 | Cornell | W 76–65 | 15:35 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 45.5% |
| 2025-11-06 | Ohio | L 68–72 | 19:19 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 35.7% |