Evansville
MVC · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 351 · Raw net -18.4 · Tempo 67.4 · 30 Division I games · Through 2026-03-05
Scouting Report
| Category | Offense | Defense | D-I Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | |||
| Efficiency / 100 poss. | 96.9345 | 115.3327 | 108.5 |
| Four Factors | |||
| Effective FG% | 49.3280 | 55.1333 | 51.4 |
| TO / 100 poss. | 19.1323 | 15.4259 | 16.7 |
| Offensive rebound % | 22.0355 | 30.2170 | 30.6 |
| FTA / FGA % | 29.8314 | 31.494 | 35.0 |
| Shooting | |||
| 3P% | 32.2268 | 37.6351 | 33.9 |
| 2P% | 49.9256 | 54.0277 | 51.7 |
| FT% | 73.6151 | 74.5298 | 72.5 |
| Style | |||
| 3PA / FGA % | 43.1 | 43.2 | 39.5 |
| Assists / FGM % | 54.3 | 58.0 | 52.6 |
| Blocks / opp. 2PA % | 10.0 | 7.2 | 9.5 |
| Point Distribution | |||
| 3-pointers % | 34.6 | 36.5 | 31.4 |
| 2-pointers % | 47.2 | 46.0 | 48.8 |
| Free throws % | 18.2 | 17.5 | 19.8 |
Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.
Rotation Depth
- Effective Rotation Size
- 8.2
- Top Three Share of Minutes
- 45%
- Bench Share of Minutes
- 28%
- Players with Logged Minutes
- 13
Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions
Schedule and Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | Poss. | Site | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-04 | Purdue | L 51–82 | 61.8 | Away | 0–1 |
| 11-12 | Middle Tenn. | L 72–77 | 71.2 | Home | 0–2 |
| 11-18 | UT Arlington | L 76–84 | 68.6 | Home | 0–3 |
| 11-21 | Oregon St. | W 73–69 | 67.8 | Neutral | 1–3 |
| 11-23 | Akron | L 59–97 | 69.9 | Neutral | 1–4 |
| 11-24 | Col. of Charleston | L 59–78 | 70.3 | Neutral | 1–5 |
| 12-03 | Ball St. | W 64–52 | 67.1 | Home | 2–5 |
| 12-06 | Western Ky. | L 79–80 | 72.9 | Away | 2–6 |
| 12-13 | Notre Dame | L 58–82 | 66.6 | Away | 2–7 |
| 12-16 | Belmont | L 78–83 | 76.1 | Home | 2–8 |
| 12-21 | Drake | L 65–66 | 65.3 | Home | 2–9 |
| 12-29 | Bradley | L 68–76 | 68.8 | Away | 2–10 |
| 01-01 | Illinois St. | L 47–73 | 71.6 | Away | 2–11 |
| 01-04 | UNI | L 48–62 | 63.7 | Home | 2–12 |
| 01-07 | Murray St. | L 69–79 | 71.4 | Home | 2–13 |
| 01-10 | Indiana St. | W 72–69 | 72.0 | Away | 3–13 |
| 01-13 | Bradley | L 90–94 1OT | 76.0 | Home | 3–14 |
| 01-20 | UIC | L 49–76 | 67.1 | Away | 3–15 |
| 01-28 | Drake | L 78–82 | 66.9 | Away | 3–16 |
| 01-31 | UNI | L 55–71 | 58.1 | Away | 3–17 |
| 02-03 | Indiana St. | L 63–84 | 62.7 | Home | 3–18 |
| 02-06 | Valparaiso | L 63–70 1OT | 69.2 | Away | 3–19 |
| 02-09 | Illinois St. | W 88–80 | 66.3 | Home | 4–19 |
| 02-12 | Southern Ill. | L 60–86 | 68.1 | Away | 4–20 |
| 02-18 | UIC | L 46–84 | 64.6 | Home | 4–21 |
| 02-21 | Murray St. | L 75–88 | 72.1 | Away | 4–22 |
| 02-25 | Belmont | L 64–98 | 67.5 | Away | 4–23 |
| 02-28 | Valparaiso | W 80–79 | 67.9 | Home | 5–23 |
| 03-01 | Southern Ill. | L 67–81 | 63.9 | Home | 5–24 |
| 03-05 | UNI | L 59–68 | 62.8 | Neutral | 5–25 |
Roster · 13 players
Player logs in 30 of 30 team games
| Column groups | Minutes | Per Game | Shooting | Last Five Team Games | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | MPG | Team Min% | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | 2P | 2P% | 3P | 3P% | FT | FT% | eFG% | TS% | FTA/FGA | G | MPG | Min% | Pts/G |
| Leif Moeller | 30 | 32:47 | 81.3% | 11.1 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 65–153 | 42.5% | 47–127 | 37.0% | 61–78 | 78.2% | 48.4% | 52.8% | 27.9% | 5 | 37:49 +5:02 | 94.5% | 12.6 +1.5 |
| AJ Casey | 30 | 30:12 | 74.9% | 13.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 135–241 | 56.0% | 20–60 | 33.3% | 87–118 | 73.7% | 54.8% | 59.1% | 39.2% | 5 | 36:15 +6:03 | 90.6% | 23.2 +9.3 |
| Joshua Hughes | 30 | 28:12 | 69.9% | 9.1 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 55–89 | 61.8% | 41–111 | 36.9% | 39–52 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.0% | 26.0% | 5 | 31:33 +3:21 | 78.9% | 10.2 +1.1 |
| Bryce Quinet | 30 | 27:24 | 67.9% | 8.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 71–156 | 45.5% | 19–71 | 26.8% | 58–80 | 72.5% | 43.8% | 49.0% | 35.2% | 5 | 30:17 +2:53 | 75.7% | 8.6 0.0 |
| Alex Hemenway | 30 | 26:31 | 65.7% | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 13–38 | 34.2% | 47–155 | 30.3% | 27–33 | 81.8% | 43.3% | 46.7% | 17.1% | 5 | 28:46 +2:15 | 71.9% | 6.4 −0.1 |
| Trent Hundley | 30 | 17:28 | 43.3% | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 10–23 | 43.5% | 36–100 | 36.0% | 22–25 | 88.0% | 52.0% | 56.0% | 20.3% | 5 | 22:15 +4:47 | 55.6% | 7.6 +2.6 |
| Keishon Porter | 14 | 22:57 | 26.6% | 7.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 31–70 | 44.3% | 5–30 | 16.7%† | 25–37 | 67.6% | 38.5% | 43.9% | 37.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Kaia Berridge | 26 | 11:21 | 24.4% | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 4–11 | 36.4%† | 9–34 | 26.5%† | 7–12 | 58.3%† | 38.9%† | 41.8%† | 26.7%† | 5 | 8:42 −2:39 | 21.7% | 0.4 −1.2 |
| Connor Turnbull | 14 | 20:38 | 23.9% | 11.9 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 62–123 | 50.4% | 4–17 | 23.5%† | 30–45 | 66.7% | 48.6% | 51.9% | 32.1% | — | — | — | — |
| James Dyson-Merwe | 19 | 12:37 | 19.8% | 2.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 20–29 | 69.0%† | 0–2 | 0.0%† | 3–8 | 37.5%† | 64.5%† | 62.3%† | 25.8%† | 1 | 17:52 +5:15 | 8.9% | 0.0 −2.3 |
| Weston AignerFew gamesUnder 100 minutes | 3 | 1:20 | 0.3% | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0–0 | — | 0–0 | — | 0–0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leo Amari IVFew gamesUnder 100 minutes | 3 | 1:18 | 0.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0–0 | — | 0–0 | — | 0–0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1:11 −0:07 | 0.6% | 0.0 0.0 |
| Marlon Barnes, Jr.Few gamesUnder 100 minutes | 1 | 2:03 | 0.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0–0 | — | 0–0 | — | 0–0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team, games with logs · per game | 30 games | 65.8 | 30.4 | 12.6 | not published | 3.3 | 13.0 | not published | 466–933 | 49.9% | 228–707 | 32.2% | 359–488 | 73.6% | 49.3% | 53.2% | 29.8% | ||||||
| Sum of players | 65.8 | 26.9 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 12.4 | 16.0 | Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals. | |||||||||||||||
| Residual: team minus players | 0.0 | +3.4 | 0.0 | not published | 0.0 | +0.6 | not published | ||||||||||||||||
G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.
Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β
Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.
- Team Pool
- $495K
- 80% Range $210K to $1.10M
- Tier
- Mid and high major
- low to medium evidence
- Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $440K to $610K
- Scenario medians
- Players with Figures
- 13
- 3 floor only
The widest scenario range, $265K to $1.35M, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology
| Player | Poss. Share | Speculative Best Guess | 80% Range | Range Graphic | Median % of Team Pool | Scenarios Z1 to Z4 | Floor Part | Evidence and Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leif Moeller | 80.8% | $16K | $2K to $100K | 4.7% | $15K to $20K | $4K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| AJ Casey | 74.7% | $35K | $2K to $135K | 11.3% | $32K to $44K | $4K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Joshua Hughes | 70.5% | $32K | $2K to $135K | 9.7% | $29K to $40K | $4K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Bryce Quinet | 68.1% | $55K | $3K to $180K | 13.5% | $49K to $68K | $4K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Alex Hemenway | 66.4% | $64K | $4K to $210K | 14.3% | $57K to $78K | $4K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Trent Hundley | 42.9% | $23K | $2K to $87K | 6.7% | $21K to $28K | $4K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Keishon Porter | 28.2% | $10K | $2K to $42K | 2.5% | $9K to $12K | $4K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Connor Turnbull | 24.1% | $77K | $22K to $405K | 12.4% | $69K to $96K | $4K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Kaia Berridge | 23.8% | $9K | $2K to $35K | 2.2% | $8K to $11K | $4K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| James Dyson-Merwe | 19.7% | $16K | $3K to $56K | 4.1% | $14K to $20K | $4K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Weston Aigner | 0.4% | $4K | $1K to $9K | 0.8% | $3K to $4K | $4K | Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Leo Amari IV | 0.3% | $4K | $1K to $9K | 0.8% | $3K to $4K | $4K | Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Marlon Barnes, Jr. | 0.2% | $4K | $1K to $9K | 0.8% | $3K to $4K | $4K | Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Team Pool | — | $495K | $210K to $1.10M | 100% | $440K to $610K | — |
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)
Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.
| Measure | School-Reported Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Men's basketball revenue | $3,212,821 | Equals expenses (budget identity) |
| Men's basketball expenses | $3,212,821 | |
| Athletics department expenses | $14,961,560 | |
| Athletics department revenue | $14,961,560 |
Team Totalsβ
Season per game, 30 games, 2,038 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions
| Statistic | Team | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 65.8 | 78.3 |
| Field goals made | 23.1 | 27.5 |
| Field goals attempted | 54.7 | 58.7 |
| 3-pointers made | 7.6 | 9.5 |
| 3-pointers attempted | 23.6 | 25.3 |
| Free throws made | 12.0 | 13.7 |
| Free throws attempted | 16.3 | 18.4 |
| Offensive rebounds | 7.4 | 9.9 |
| Defensive rebounds | 22.9 | 26.3 |
| Total rebounds | 30.4 | 36.2 |
| Assists | 12.6 | 16.0 |
| Blocks | 3.3 | 2.2 |
| Turnovers | 13.0 | 10.5 |
| Steals | No team figure. Players sum to 149. | |
| Personal fouls | No team figure. Players sum to 481. | |
| Minutes (derived) | 201.7 | not published |
30 of 30 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions
| Statistic | Status | Team Total, Logged Games | Sum of Players | Residual | Tolerance | Team Total, Games Without Logs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | Reconciled | 1,975 | 1,975 | 0 | ±9.9 | 0 |
| Field goals made | Reconciled | 694 | 694 | 0 | ±3.5 | 0 |
| Field goals attempted | Reconciled | 1,640 | 1,640 | 0 | ±8.2 | 0 |
| 3-pointers made | Reconciled | 228 | 228 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| 3-pointers attempted | Reconciled | 707 | 707 | 0 | ±3.5 | 0 |
| Free throws made | Reconciled | 359 | 359 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| Free throws attempted | Reconciled | 488 | 488 | 0 | ±2.4 | 0 |
| Offensive rebounds | No player split | not published | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| Defensive rebounds | No player split | not published | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| Total rebounds | Residual shown | 911 | 808 | +103 | ±72.9 | 0 |
| Assists | Reconciled | 377 | 377 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| Blocks | Reconciled | 100 | 100 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | Residual shown | 389 | 371 | +18 | ±11.7 | 0 |
| Steals | No team figure | not published | 149 | not published | not published | not published |
| Personal fouls | No team figure | not published | 481 | not published | not published | not published |
| Minutes (derived) | Reconciled | 6,050 | 6,032 | +18.2 | ±121.0 | 0 |
Model-Implied Player Valueβ
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.
| Player | Poss. Share | Net and Rangeβ | Range Graphic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leif Moeller | 80.8% | -2.7range -3.8 to -1.4Sufficient evidence | |
| AJ Casey | 74.7% | -1.6range -2.7 to -0.3Sufficient evidence | |
| Joshua Hughes | 70.5% | -1.7range -3.0 to -0.3Sufficient evidence | |
| Bryce Quinet | 68.1% | -0.9range -2.0 to +0.1Sufficient evidence | |
| Alex Hemenway | 66.4% | -0.7range -1.8 to +0.5Sufficient evidence | |
| Trent Hundley | 42.9% | -1.6range -3.0 to -0.2Sufficient evidence | |
| Keishon Porter | 28.2% | -2.5range -3.7 to -1.3Sufficient evidence | |
| Connor Turnbull | 24.1% | +1.2range +0.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | |
| Kaia Berridge | 23.8% | -2.5range -3.8 to -1.3Sufficient evidence | |
| James Dyson-Merwe | 19.7% | -1.1range -2.3 to +0.1Sufficient evidence | |
| Weston Aigner | 0.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | |
| Leo Amari IV | 0.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | |
| Marlon Barnes, Jr. | 0.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence |
Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β
Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology
- Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions
- +8.0range +7.2 to +8.9Sufficient evidence
200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.
10 valued players hold 99.8% of on-court time. 3 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 0.2%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 0.0%.