Ohio

MAC · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 247 · Raw net -4.7 · Tempo 70.4 · 30 Division I games · Through 2026-03-12

Record: 13–17; 13 wins
AdjNet: -4.0β; rank 229 of 365
AdjO: 107.8β; rank 187 of 365
AdjD: 111.9β; rank 266 of 365
AdjT: 69.7β
SOS: -0.3β; rank 174 of 363
NCSOS: 1.9β
WAB: -10.1β; rank 226 of 363
RR: 0.5β
Exp. W: 12.5β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	108.1181	112.7284	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	50.9196	53.0268	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	15.5102	16.1217	16.7
Offensive rebound %	28.4247	32.8291	30.6
FTA / FGA %	36.9132	38.2267	35.0
Shooting
3P%	30.1341	36.8339	33.9
2P%	54.573	51.9190	51.7
FT%	71.0238	73.2232	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	38.1	33.6	39.5
Assists / FGM %	46.7	47.6	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	8.6	7.5	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	26.9	27.6	31.4
2-pointers %	52.7	51.5	48.8
Free throws %	20.5	20.9	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 7.7
Top Three Share of Minutes: 50%
Bench Share of Minutes: 23%
Players with Logged Minutes: 12

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-03	Arkansas St.	L 85–89	75.4	Home	0–1
11-06	Illinois St.	W 72–68	70.0	Home	1–1
11-11	Saint Mary's (CA)	L 60–90	69.4	Away	1–2
11-15	Louisville	L 81–106	76.3	Away	1–3
11-19	Bethune-Cookman	L 73–76	67.5	Home	1–4
11-24	George Mason	L 69–92	67.5	Neutral	1–5
11-25	LMU (CA)	L 58–70	71.9	Neutral	1–6
12-03	Maine	W 79–57	65.5	Home	2–6
12-06	Marshall	W 88–81	72.6	Home	3–6
12-13	St. Bonaventure	W 88–83 1OT	80.5	Neutral	4–6
12-20	Bowling Green	L 58–68	67.6	Home	4–7
12-30	Central Mich.	W 80–64	77.0	Away	5–7
01-03	Eastern Mich.	W 68–67	66.5	Away	6–7
01-06	Massachusetts	W 86–83	74.0	Home	7–7
01-10	Buffalo	W 91–80	73.5	Home	8–7
01-13	Toledo	L 85–101	69.6	Away	8–8
01-16	Ball St.	L 71–76	66.9	Away	8–9
01-20	NIU	W 80–77	72.8	Home	9–9
01-23	Akron	L 65–86	73.6	Home	9–10
01-27	Kent St.	L 57–72	71.8	Away	9–11
01-31	Buffalo	W 95–83	71.6	Away	10–11
02-03	Western Mich.	W 91–71	69.2	Home	11–11
02-07	Old Dominion	L 72–78	64.8	Away	11–12
02-13	Miami (OH)	L 74–90	71.9	Away	11–13
02-17	Ball St.	W 69–57	59.8	Home	12–13
02-21	NIU	W 74–66	64.6	Away	13–13
02-28	Toledo	L 67–79	66.2	Home	13–14
03-03	Massachusetts	L 82–94	76.7	Away	13–15
03-06	Miami (OH)	L 108–110 1OT	83.2	Home	13–16
03-12	Kent St.	L 75–86	71.0	Neutral	13–17

Roster · 12 players

Player logs in 30 of 30 team games

Team roster, per game
Column groups	Minutes			Per Game							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Jackson Paveletzke	30	36:55	91.5%	17.8	3.0	5.1	0.9	0.0	2.3	1.5	140–267	52.4%	31–98	31.6%	161–200	80.5%	51.1%	58.9%	54.8%	5	39:07 +2:11	95.4%	19.6 +1.8
Aidan Hadaway	30	32:41	81.1%	14.5	7.6	1.9	0.7	0.7	2.0	2.9	132–221	59.7%	42–141	29.8%	46–64	71.9%	53.9%	55.9%	17.7%	5	36:10 +3:29	88.2%	16.0 +1.5
Ajay Sheldon	30	31:13	77.4%	7.5	2.5	1.7	1.5	0.1	1.1	2.4	10–36	27.8%	61–169	36.1%	21–30	70.0%	49.5%	51.3%	14.6%	5	34:06 +2:53	83.2%	7.2 −0.3
Javan Simmons	29	27:54	66.9%	15.4	5.8	1.6	0.6	0.8	1.8	3.0	151–264	57.2%	6–30	20.0%†	127–186	68.3%	54.4%	59.5%	63.3%	5	30:47 +2:53	75.1%	22.2 +6.8
JJ Kelly	29	27:05	64.9%	8.3	3.9	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.8	2.6	71–113	62.8%	22–69	31.9%	34–44	77.3%	57.1%	60.1%	24.2%	4	28:51 +1:46	56.3%	4.5 −3.8
Jalen Breath	26	13:09	28.3%	3.9	3.1	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.8	2.1	37–68	54.4%†	0–1	0.0%†	28–64	43.8%	53.6%†	52.5%†	92.8%†	4	11:31 −1:38	22.5%	3.3 −0.7
Dior Conners	29	11:09	26.7%	3.8	1.2	0.7	0.5	0.0	0.6	1.4	12–29	41.4%	21–83	25.3%	22–28	78.6%	38.8%	43.8%	25.0%	5	11:37 +0:28	28.3%	3.8 0.0
Elijah Elliott	11	21:31	19.6%	4.2	2.8	1.4	0.6	0.2	1.1	1.6	10–32	31.3%†	4–19	21.1%†	14–22	63.6%†	31.4%†	37.9%†	43.1%†	—	—	—	—
Kiir Kuany	29	8:09	19.5%	2.7	1.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	1.2	25–41	61.0%†	6–23	26.1%†	9–13	69.2%†	53.1%†	55.2%†	20.3%†	5	12:26 +4:17	30.3%	4.4 +1.7
Jesse Burris	22	9:03	16.4%	3.0	1.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.5	0.9	12–26	46.2%†	12–45	26.7%†	5–6	83.3%†	42.3%†	44.1%†	8.5%†	5	6:51 −2:12	16.7%	1.4 −1.6
Ayden EvansFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	9	7:39	5.7%	2.1	0.9	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.3	1.2	6–13	46.2%†	1–5	20.0%†	4–6	66.7%†	41.7%†	46.0%†	33.3%†	1	7:51 +0:12	3.8%	2.0 −0.1
Jordan FisherFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	3	1:45	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0–1	0.0%†	0–2	0.0%†	0–0	—	0.0%†	0.0%†	0.0%†	—	—	—	—
Team, games with logs · per game	30 games			76.7	33.2	12.6	not published	3.4	11.0	not published	606–1111	54.5%	206–685	30.1%	471–663	71.0%	50.9%	55.1%	36.9%
Sum of players				76.7	29.5	12.6	5.7	3.4	10.3	18.1	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0.0	+3.7	+0.0	not published	0.0	+0.7	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $280K; 80% Range $100K to $760K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $275K to $295K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Jackson Paveletzke	91.5%	$34K	$4K to $115K	15.9%	$33K to $36K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aidan Hadaway	80.5%	$66K	$21K to $210K	22.0%	$65K to $70K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ajay Sheldon	77.8%	$30K	$4K to $100K	13.5%	$29K to $32K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Javan Simmons	69.9%	$46K	$13K to $155K	15.6%	$45K to $48K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
JJ Kelly	65.0%	$33K	$7K to $110K	13.0%	$32K to $34K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dior Conners	27.1%	$5K	$1K to $22K	2.4%	$5K to $6K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jalen Breath	26.9%	$10K	$2K to $33K	4.5%	$9K to $10K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kiir Kuany	21.5%	$5K	$1K to $20K	2.4%	$5K to $6K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Elijah Elliott	18.6%	$5K	$1K to $19K	2.6%	$5K to $6K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jesse Burris	16.3%	$5K	$1K to $17K	2.1%	$5K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ayden Evans	4.4%	$2K	$1K to $7K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jordan Fisher	0.5%	$2K	$1K to $7K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$280K	$100K to $760K	100%	$275K to $295K	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Ohio University-Main Campus (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,751,341	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,751,341
Athletics department expenses	$33,031,821
Athletics department revenue	$33,031,821

Team Totalsβ

Season per game, 30 games, 2,129 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	76.7	80.0
Field goals made	27.1	28.0
Field goals attempted	59.9	59.7
3-pointers made	6.9	7.4
3-pointers attempted	22.8	20.0
Free throws made	15.7	16.7
Free throws attempted	22.1	22.8
Offensive rebounds	10.1	11.3
Defensive rebounds	23.1	25.4
Total rebounds	33.2	36.7
Assists	12.6	13.3
Blocks	3.4	2.8
Turnovers	11.0	11.4
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 172.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 543.
Minutes (derived)	201.7	not published

30 of 30 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,301	2,301	0	±11.5	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	812	812	0	±4.1	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,796	1,796	0	±9.0	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	206	206	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	685	685	0	±3.4	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	471	471	0	±2.4	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	663	663	0	±3.3	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	996	885	+111	±79.7	0
Assists	Reconciled	379	378	+1	±2.0	0
Blocks	Reconciled	102	102	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	329	308	+21	±9.9	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	172	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	543	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	6,050	6,030	+19.6	±121.0	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Jackson Paveletzke	91.5%	-0.3range -1.4 to +1.2Sufficient evidence
Aidan Hadaway	80.5%	+1.5range +0.5 to +2.7Sufficient evidence
Ajay Sheldon	77.8%	+0.0range -1.0 to +1.1Sufficient evidence
Javan Simmons	69.9%	+0.9range -0.0 to +2.0Sufficient evidence
JJ Kelly	65.0%	+0.5range -0.8 to +1.8Sufficient evidence
Dior Conners	27.1%	-2.0range -3.0 to -0.8Sufficient evidence
Jalen Breath	26.9%	-0.4range -1.5 to +0.5Sufficient evidence
Kiir Kuany	21.5%	-1.7range -2.8 to -0.5Sufficient evidence
Elijah Elliott	18.6%	-1.3range -2.1 to -0.3Sufficient evidence
Jesse Burris	16.3%	-1.5range -2.4 to -0.6Sufficient evidence
Ayden Evans	4.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Jordan Fisher	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +9.5range +8.6 to +10.5Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

10 valued players hold 99.0% of on-court time. 2 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 1.0%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 0.0%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value