Algosys College Basketball

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Mississippi St.

SEC · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 260 · Raw net -5.8 · Tempo 71.5 · 32 Division I games · Through 2026-03-11

All seasons
Record
13–19
13 wins
AdjNet
2.7β
rank 134 of 365
AdjO
110.0β
rank 138 of 365
AdjD
107.3β
rank 153 of 365
AdjT
70.3β
SOS
8.7β
rank 29 of 363
NCSOS
-0.8β
WAB
-5.8β
rank 124 of 363
RR
1.7β
Exp. W
11.3β

Scouting Report

CategoryOffenseDefenseD-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.107.4201113.2294108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%51.517250.915451.4
TO / 100 poss.16.114612.835816.7
Offensive rebound %29.820930.719030.6
FTA / FGA %30.728932.311235.0
Shooting
3P%32.426333.917933.9
2P%53.411051.013551.7
FT%66.035375.231872.5
Style
3PA / FGA %40.139.539.5
Assists / FGM %45.152.152.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %11.211.29.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %31.631.931.4
2-pointers %51.948.948.8
Free throws %16.419.319.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size
9.2
Top Three Share of Minutes
42%
Bench Share of Minutes
37%
Players with Logged Minutes
12

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

DateOpponentResultPoss.SiteRecord
11-05North Ala.W 86–6271.6Home1–0
11-10Iowa St.L 80–9675.8Neutral1–1
11-15Southeastern La.W 75–6873.7Home2–1
11-20Kansas St.L 77–9875.1Neutral2–2
11-21New MexicoL 78–8072.5Neutral2–3
11-24LSU New OrleansW 81–78 1OT77.4Home3–3
11-28SMUL 81–87 1OT79.9Home3–4
12-03Georgia TechW 85–7375.0Away4–4
12-07San FranciscoL 62–6561.8Neutral4–5
12-13UtahW 82–7469.8Neutral5–5
12-16LIUW 87–8371.7Home6–5
12-20MemphisW 71–6670.2Home7–5
12-29Alabama St.W 94–5669.4Home8–5
01-03TexasW 101–98 1OT82.4Away9–5
01-07OklahomaW 72–5365.6Home10–5
01-10KentuckyL 68–9268.7Away10–6
01-13AlabamaL 82–9776.8Home10–7
01-17Ole MissL 67–6869.8Home10–8
01-21Texas A&ML 68–8870.3Away10–9
01-24VanderbiltL 56–8874.2Home10–10
01-28LSUW 80–6667.7Away11–10
01-31MissouriL 79–8473.1Away11–11
02-07ArkansasL 68–8870.2Home11–12
02-11TennesseeL 64–7369.9Home11–13
02-14Ole MissW 90–7870.7Away12–13
02-18AuburnW 91–8567.4Home13–13
02-21South CarolinaL 89–9772.5Away13–14
02-25AlabamaL 75–10075.9Away13–15
02-28MissouriL 64–8868.8Home13–16
03-03FloridaL 74–10875.1Away13–17
03-07GeorgiaL 96–10279.3Home13–18
03-11AuburnL 61–7971.3Neutral13–19

Roster · 12 players

Player logs in 32 of 32 team games

MinutesPer GameShootingLast Five Team Games
PlayerGMPGTeam Min%PtsRebAstStlBlkTOPF2P2P%3P3P%FTFT%eFG%TS%FTA/FGAGMPGMin%Pts/G
Josh Hubbard3233:2382.5%22.12.53.61.20.12.41.2142–28849.3%95–27434.7%138–18475.0%50.6%55.0%32.7%534:47 +1:2487.0%22.4 +0.3
Jayden Epps3027:2563.5%13.72.52.30.50.21.92.087–16851.8%59–19330.6%59–7380.8%48.6%52.1%20.2%528:50 +1:2572.1%11.0 −2.7
Shawn Jones Jr.3126:0062.2%5.34.01.51.30.61.32.242–7953.2%20–7128.2%21–3265.6%48.0%50.3%21.3%426:03 +0:0352.1%4.8 −0.6
Ja'Borri McGhee3221:5854.3%8.42.11.90.60.01.61.962–13944.6%34–8440.5%42–6267.7%50.7%53.5%27.8%518:16 −3:4245.7%9.2 +0.8
Quincy Ballard3220:2250.3%6.56.00.60.21.10.91.687–14759.2%0–0—33–4868.8%59.2%61.6%32.7%520:14 −0:0850.6%6.2 −0.3
Jamarion Davis-Fleming3219:5549.2%3.74.80.70.41.30.52.250–7368.5%†0–10.0%†19–5633.9%67.6%†60.3%†75.7%†523:22 +3:2858.4%3.4 −0.3
Achor Achor3217:5044.1%6.26.30.40.50.61.12.052–10151.5%18–6328.6%39–5669.6%48.2%52.2%34.1%519:35 +1:4549.0%7.0 +0.8
Sergej Macura2818:2339.8%5.04.80.80.40.10.61.153–8562.4%6–2128.6%†16–3743.2%58.5%57.2%34.9%518:10 −0:1445.4%3.6 −1.4
King Grace2411:4721.8%5.11.30.40.40.30.51.227–4955.1%†15–4731.9%†23–2882.1%51.6%†56.3%†29.2%†319:09 +7:2228.7%10.0 +4.9
Brandon Walker198:5513.1%4.72.10.50.20.20.61.432–5756.1%†4–1428.6%†13–3043.3%53.5%†52.9%†42.3%†————
Dellquan Warren197:2410.9%1.20.40.90.40.00.80.76–966.7%†3–1520.0%†1–520.0%†43.8%†42.0%†20.8%†35:31 −1:528.3%1.3 +0.2
Amier Ali127:026.5%3.21.70.20.20.00.10.35–1241.7%†8–2630.8%†4–757.1%†44.7%†46.3%†18.4%†11:46 −5:160.9%3.0 −0.2
Team, games with logs · per game32 games77.638.212.84.411.6645–120753.4%262–80932.4%408–61866.0%51.5%54.3%30.7%
Sum of players77.635.212.85.84.411.216.1Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players0.0+3.00.0+0.0+0.4

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool
$3.55M
80% Range $2.55M to $4.95M
Tier
Power 4
medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4
$3.55M in all four
Scenario medians
Players with Figures
12
1 floor only
Players in possession-share order
PlayerPoss. ShareSpeculative Best Guess80% RangeRange GraphicMedian % of Team PoolScenarios Z1 to Z4Floor PartEvidence and Flags
Josh Hubbard83.0%$445K$59K to $750K13.8%$445K in all four$29KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jayden Epps65.3%$180K$22K to $430K5.4%$180K in all four$29KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Shawn Jones Jr.62.3%$400K$57K to $720K11.9%$400K in all four$29KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ja'Borri McGhee52.6%$280K$32K to $525K8.4%$280K in all four$29KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Quincy Ballard50.3%$790K$420K to $2.00M21.5%$790K in all four$29KSufficient evidence
Jamarion Davis-Fleming48.4%$220K$29K to $410K6.8%$220K in all four$29KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Achor Achor46.7%$305K$72K to $530K9.0%$305K in all four$29KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sergej Macura41.1%$405K$200K to $890K10.8%$405K in all four$29KSufficient evidence
King Grace22.8%$91K$23K to $185K2.8%$91K in all four$29KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Brandon Walker12.3%$83K$29K to $135K2.6%$83K in all four$29KLimited evidence
Dellquan Warren10.0%$57K$23K to $100K1.7%$57K in all four$29KLimited evidence
Amier Ali5.2%$29K$16K to $48K0.8%$29K in all four$29KFloor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool—$3.55M$2.55M to $4.95M100%$3.55M in all four—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Mississippi State University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
MeasureSchool-Reported AmountNote
Men's basketball revenue$12,220,601Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses$12,220,601
Athletics department expenses$157,301,826
Athletics department revenue$157,301,826

Team Totalsβ

Season per game, 32 games, 2,313 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

StatisticTeamOpponents
Points77.681.8
Field goals made28.328.7
Field goals attempted63.064.8
3-pointers made8.28.7
3-pointers attempted25.325.6
Free throws made12.815.8
Free throws attempted19.320.9
Offensive rebounds11.311.9
Defensive rebounds26.926.7
Total rebounds38.238.6
Assists12.814.9
Blocks4.44.2
Turnovers11.69.3
StealsNo team figure. Players sum to 185.
Personal foulsNo team figure. Players sum to 516.
Minutes (derived)202.3

32 of 32 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

StatisticStatusTeam Total, Logged GamesSum of PlayersResidualToleranceTeam Total, Games Without Logs
PointsReconciled2,4842,4840±12.40
Field goals madeReconciled9079070±4.50
Field goals attemptedReconciled2,0162,0160±10.10
3-pointers madeReconciled2622620±2.00
3-pointers attemptedReconciled8098090±4.00
Free throws madeReconciled4084080±2.00
Free throws attemptedReconciled6186180±3.10
Offensive reboundsNo player split
Defensive reboundsNo player split
Total reboundsReconciled1,2231,126+97±97.80
AssistsReconciled4094090±2.00
BlocksReconciled141140+1±2.00
TurnoversResidual shown372359+13±11.20
StealsNo team figure185
Personal foulsNo team figure516
Minutes (derived)Reconciled6,4756,451+23.9±129.50

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
PlayerPoss. ShareNet and RangeβRange Graphic
Josh Hubbard83.0%+0.3range -0.9 to +1.1Sufficient evidence
Jayden Epps65.3%-1.4range -3.0 to -0.1Sufficient evidence
Shawn Jones Jr.62.3%+0.6range -1.2 to +2.2Sufficient evidence
Ja'Borri McGhee52.6%-0.1range -2.0 to +1.8Sufficient evidence
Quincy Ballard50.3%+3.5range +2.4 to +4.6Sufficient evidence
Jamarion Davis-Fleming48.4%-0.5range -1.8 to +0.8Sufficient evidence
Achor Achor46.7%+0.6range -0.9 to +1.8Sufficient evidence
Sergej Macura41.1%+1.9range -0.0 to +3.7Sufficient evidence
King Grace22.8%-1.1range -2.1 to -0.1Sufficient evidence
Brandon Walker12.3%-0.1range -1.3 to +0.8Limited evidence
Dellquan Warren10.0%-1.0range -1.9 to -0.1Limited evidence
Amier Ali5.2%Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions
+9.8range +8.8 to +10.6Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

11 valued players hold 99.0% of on-court time. 1 without a value (under 300 possessions) holds 1.0%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 4.5%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value