Air Force
MWC · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 363 · Raw net -27.3 · Tempo 67.4 · 31 Division I games · Through 2026-03-11
Scouting Report
| Category | Offense | Defense | D-I Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | |||
| Efficiency / 100 poss. | 91.3363 | 118.6353 | 108.5 |
| Four Factors | |||
| Effective FG% | 49.1288 | 56.5352 | 51.4 |
| TO / 100 poss. | 22.0362 | 14.9298 | 16.7 |
| Offensive rebound % | 21.7359 | 30.6187 | 30.6 |
| FTA / FGA % | 33.8217 | 36.4227 | 35.0 |
| Shooting | |||
| 3P% | 30.9325 | 38.0358 | 33.9 |
| 2P% | 51.1207 | 56.3333 | 51.7 |
| FT% | 63.5365 | 72.8198 | 72.5 |
| Style | |||
| 3PA / FGA % | 42.3 | 39.2 | 39.5 |
| Assists / FGM % | 56.0 | 54.5 | 52.6 |
| Blocks / opp. 2PA % | 6.7 | 12.3 | 9.5 |
| Point Distribution | |||
| 3-pointers % | 32.7 | 32.0 | 31.4 |
| 2-pointers % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 48.8 |
| Free throws % | 17.9 | 19.0 | 19.8 |
Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.
Rotation Depth
- Effective Rotation Size
- 9.1
- Top Three Share of Minutes
- 43%
- Bench Share of Minutes
- 33%
- Players with Logged Minutes
- 17
Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions
Schedule and Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | Poss. | Site | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-03 | Belmont | L 63–79 | 66.6 | Away | 0–1 |
| 11-08 | Austin Peay | L 54–74 | 71.6 | Home | 0–2 |
| 11-11 | LIU | L 72–76 | 69.3 | Home | 0–3 |
| 11-15 | Miami (OH) | L 61–76 | 66.9 | Home | 0–4 |
| 11-19 | Alabama St. | W 66–64 | 66.5 | Home | 1–4 |
| 11-21 | SIUE | W 77–63 | 68.5 | Home | 2–4 |
| 11-23 | IU Indy | W 98–85 | 78.8 | Home | 3–4 |
| 11-26 | Northern Colo. | L 53–71 | 61.2 | Home | 3–5 |
| 12-03 | Pacific | L 65–80 | 60.9 | Home | 3–6 |
| 12-07 | Navy | L 56–61 | 63.4 | Away | 3–7 |
| 12-17 | San Diego St. | L 58–81 | 63.9 | Away | 3–8 |
| 12-30 | Wyoming | L 56–68 | 68.7 | Home | 3–9 |
| 01-03 | UNLV | L 39–67 | 65.3 | Away | 3–10 |
| 01-06 | Utah St. | L 62–99 | 66.1 | Home | 3–11 |
| 01-10 | New Mexico | L 49–91 | 68.8 | Home | 3–12 |
| 01-13 | San Jose St. | L 62–70 | 61.3 | Away | 3–13 |
| 01-17 | Nevada | L 66–81 | 68.4 | Home | 3–14 |
| 01-20 | Colorado St. | L 52–81 | 65.3 | Away | 3–15 |
| 01-24 | Boise St. | L 54–96 | 62.0 | Away | 3–16 |
| 01-31 | Fresno St. | L 62–79 | 71.4 | Home | 3–17 |
| 02-03 | Grand Canyon | L 57–81 | 68.8 | Away | 3–18 |
| 02-07 | San Diego St. | L 54–88 | 70.2 | Home | 3–19 |
| 02-10 | Colorado St. | L 74–91 | 65.3 | Home | 3–20 |
| 02-14 | Fresno St. | L 63–93 | 72.9 | Away | 3–21 |
| 02-17 | New Mexico | L 61–98 | 70.7 | Away | 3–22 |
| 02-21 | UNLV | L 66–91 | 69.0 | Home | 3–23 |
| 02-24 | San Jose St. | L 80–86 | 66.2 | Home | 3–24 |
| 02-28 | Wyoming | L 62–66 | 65.3 | Away | 3–25 |
| 03-03 | Grand Canyon | L 60–86 | 68.7 | Home | 3–26 |
| 03-07 | Nevada | L 59–74 | 64.8 | Away | 3–27 |
| 03-11 | Nevada | L 45–80 | 71.2 | Neutral | 3–28 |
Roster · 17 players
Player logs in 31 of 31 team games
| Column groups | Minutes | Per 40 Minutes | Shooting | Last Five Team Games | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | MPG | Team Min% | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | 2P | 2P% | 3P | 3P% | FT | FT% | eFG% | TS% | FTA/FGA | G | MPG | Min% | Pts/G |
| Kam Sanders | 31 | 29:49 | 74.5% | 16.7 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 83–202 | 41.1% | 41–113 | 36.3% | 96–137 | 70.1% | 45.9% | 51.3% | 43.5% | 5 | 31:43 +1:54 | 79.3% | 16.0 +3.6 |
| Lucas Hobin | 31 | 28:48 | 72.0% | 15.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 37–78 | 47.4% | 69–214 | 32.2% | 73–88 | 83.0% | 48.1% | 53.5% | 30.1% | 5 | 31:36 +2:49 | 79.0% | 8.0 −3.4 |
| Eli Robinson | 30 | 28:04 | 67.9% | 11.1 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 84–163 | 51.5% | 14–39 | 35.9%† | 24–37 | 64.9% | 52.0% | 53.6% | 18.3% | 5 | 28:50 +0:46 | 72.1% | 9.4 +1.6 |
| Ethan Greenberg | 31 | 27:06 | 67.8% | 9.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 19–45 | 42.2% | 52–150 | 34.7% | 15–22 | 68.2%† | 49.7% | 51.1% | 11.3% | 5 | 30:45 +3:38 | 76.9% | 5.4 −1.3 |
| Wesley Celichowski | 31 | 21:06 | 52.7% | 9.2 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 48–83 | 57.8% | 10–61 | 16.4% | 24–45 | 53.3% | 43.8% | 45.8% | 31.3% | 5 | 24:25 +3:19 | 61.0% | 4.4 −0.4 |
| Caleb Walker | 23 | 21:13 | 39.4% | 18.8 | 9.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 89–130 | 68.5% | 0–1 | 0.0%† | 51–109 | 46.8% | 67.9% | 64.0% | 83.2% | 5 | 17:35 −3:38 | 44.0% | 6.8 −3.2 |
| AJ Patterson | 28 | 14:12 | 32.1% | 6.2 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 22–48 | 45.8%† | 1–7 | 14.3%† | 15–22 | 68.2%† | 42.7%† | 47.9%† | 40.0%† | 5 | 12:02 −2:11 | 30.1% | 1.4 −0.8 |
| Kolby Gilles | 31 | 12:35 | 31.4% | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 34–61 | 55.7%† | 3–22 | 13.6%† | 24–41 | 58.5% | 46.4%† | 50.0%† | 49.4%† | 5 | 11:58 −0:37 | 29.9% | 5.6 +2.3 |
| Justin Hinds | 28 | 11:22 | 25.7% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 9–24 | 37.5%† | 5–30 | 16.7%† | 7–12 | 58.3%† | 30.6%† | 33.7%† | 22.2%† | 4 | 2:04 −9:18 | 4.1% | 0.5 −0.9 |
| Riley Dering | 14 | 13:20 | 15.0% | 16.3 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 6.4 | 29–48 | 60.4%† | 2–3 | 66.7%† | 12–18 | 66.7%† | 62.7%† | 64.5%† | 35.3%† | 4 | 10:11 −3:09 | 20.4% | 3.8 −1.7 |
| Kyle MarshallFew gamesUnder 100 minutes | 4 | 16:25 | 5.3% | 8.5 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 7–15 | 46.7%† | 0–2 | 0.0%† | 0–3 | 0.0%† | 41.2%† | 38.2%† | 17.6%† | — | — | — | — |
| Brendan MartinUnder 100 minutes | 12 | 5:09 | 5.0% | 14.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 5–6 | 83.3%† | 4–15 | 26.7%† | 0–2 | 0.0%† | 52.4%† | 50.3%† | 9.5%† | 2 | 0:32 −4:37 | 0.5% | 0.0 −1.8 |
| Josh GateteUnder 100 minutes | 15 | 4:01 | 4.9% | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 0–3 | 0.0%† | 1–4 | 25.0%† | 1–2 | 50.0%† | 21.4%† | 25.4%† | 28.6%† | 2 | 0:32 −3:29 | 0.5% | 0.0 −0.3 |
| Sam ImadeUnder 100 minutes | 10 | 3:02 | 2.4% | 10.6 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1–6 | 16.7%† | 2–4 | 50.0%† | 0–0 | — | 40.0%† | 40.0%† | 0.0%† | — | — | — | — |
| Elliott TaiteUnder 100 minutes | 12 | 1:25 | 1.4% | 42.1 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 3–6 | 50.0%† | 4–7 | 57.1%† | 0–1 | 0.0%† | 69.2%† | 67.0%† | 7.7%† | 2 | 0:32 −0:53 | 0.5% | 2.0 +0.5 |
| Chris CatchingsFew gamesUnder 100 minutes | 5 | 1:41 | 0.7% | 0.0 | 9.5 | 19.1 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 0–1 | 0.0%† | 0–2 | 0.0%† | 0–0 | — | 0.0%† | 0.0%† | 0.0%† | 2 | 0:32 −1:09 | 0.5% | 0.0 0.0 |
| Keaton FrischFew gamesUnder 100 minutes | 2 | 0:14 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0–0 | — | 0–0 | — | 0–0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team, games with logs · per 40 team minutes | 31 games | 61.5 | 29.3 | 12.3 | not published | 2.3 | 14.8 | not published | 470–919 | 51.1% | 208–674 | 30.9% | 342–539 | 63.5% | 49.1% | 52.1% | 33.8% | ||||||
| Sum of players | 61.5 | 26.5 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 13.5 | 17.7 | Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals. | |||||||||||||||
| Residual: team minus players | 0.0 | +2.8 | −0.0 | not published | 0.0 | +1.3 | not published | ||||||||||||||||
G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.
Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β
Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.
- Team Pool
- $0 (assumed opted out)
- 80% Range $0 to $0 (assumed)
- Tier
- Mid and high major
- low to medium evidence
Assumed from one unverified press article that names schools that did not opt in. Methodology
No player figures. The Team Pool is $0.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
No modelled Team Pool (opted out). Enter a pool of your own.
School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)
Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.
No EADA match for this school.
Team Totalsβ
Season per 40 minutes, 31 games, 2,088 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Per 40 uses 1240 game minutes, 5 per overtime period. Definitions
| Statistic | Team | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 79.9 |
| Field goals made | 21.9 | 28.1 |
| Field goals attempted | 51.4 | 57.2 |
| 3-pointers made | 6.7 | 8.5 |
| 3-pointers attempted | 21.7 | 22.4 |
| Free throws made | 11.0 | 15.2 |
| Free throws attempted | 17.4 | 20.8 |
| Offensive rebounds | 7.1 | 9.8 |
| Defensive rebounds | 22.2 | 25.8 |
| Total rebounds | 29.3 | 35.6 |
| Assists | 12.3 | 15.3 |
| Blocks | 2.3 | 3.6 |
| Turnovers | 14.8 | 10.0 |
| Steals | No team figure. Players sum to 171. | |
| Personal fouls | No team figure. Players sum to 549. | |
| Minutes (derived) | 200.0 | not published |
31 of 31 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions
| Statistic | Status | Team Total, Logged Games | Sum of Players | Residual | Tolerance | Team Total, Games Without Logs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | Reconciled | 1,906 | 1,906 | 0 | ±9.5 | 0 |
| Field goals made | Reconciled | 678 | 678 | 0 | ±3.4 | 0 |
| Field goals attempted | Reconciled | 1,593 | 1,593 | 0 | ±8.0 | 0 |
| 3-pointers made | Reconciled | 208 | 208 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| 3-pointers attempted | Reconciled | 674 | 674 | 0 | ±3.4 | 0 |
| Free throws made | Reconciled | 342 | 342 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| Free throws attempted | Reconciled | 539 | 539 | 0 | ±2.7 | 0 |
| Offensive rebounds | No player split | not published | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| Defensive rebounds | No player split | not published | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| Total rebounds | Residual shown | 909 | 822 | +87 | ±72.7 | 0 |
| Assists | Reconciled | 380 | 381 | −1 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| Blocks | Reconciled | 72 | 72 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | Residual shown | 460 | 419 | +41 | ±13.8 | 0 |
| Steals | No team figure | not published | 171 | not published | not published | not published |
| Personal fouls | No team figure | not published | 549 | not published | not published | not published |
| Minutes (derived) | Reconciled | 6,200 | 6,177 | +22.7 | ±124.0 | 0 |
Model-Implied Player Valueβ
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.
| Player | Poss. Share | Net and Rangeβ | Range Graphic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kam Sanders | 75.2% | -2.3range -3.2 to -1.0Sufficient evidence | |
| Lucas Hobin | 71.5% | -4.5range -5.8 to -3.0Sufficient evidence | |
| Eli Robinson | 68.7% | -3.0range -4.2 to -1.4Sufficient evidence | |
| Ethan Greenberg | 67.2% | -2.5range -3.5 to -1.1Sufficient evidence | |
| Wesley Celichowski | 53.0% | -2.6range -4.5 to -1.0Sufficient evidence | |
| Caleb Walker | 39.1% | -1.8range -3.3 to -0.4Sufficient evidence | |
| AJ Patterson | 31.6% | -3.0range -4.4 to -1.4Sufficient evidence | |
| Kolby Gilles | 31.6% | -4.1range -5.2 to -2.9Sufficient evidence | |
| Justin Hinds | 25.7% | -2.6range -3.6 to -1.5Sufficient evidence | |
| Riley Dering | 15.4% | -0.9range -1.8 to +0.1Sufficient evidence | |
| Kyle Marshall | 5.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | |
| Brendan Martin | 5.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | |
| Josh Gatete | 5.1% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | |
| Sam Imade | 2.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | |
| Elliott Taite | 1.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | |
| Chris Catchings | 0.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | |
| Keaton Frisch | 0.0% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence |
Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β
Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology
- Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions
- +6.3range +5.4 to +7.3Sufficient evidence
200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.
10 valued players hold 95.8% of on-court time. 7 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 4.2%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 0.0%.