Air Force

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Air Force, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Kam Sanders	75.2%	-2.3range -3.2 to -1.0Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Lucas Hobin	71.5%	-4.5range -5.8 to -3.0Sufficient evidence	+0.8range +0.5 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Eli Robinson	68.7%	-3.0range -4.2 to -1.4Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Ethan Greenberg	67.2%	-2.5range -3.5 to -1.1Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Wesley Celichowski	53.0%	-2.6range -4.5 to -1.0Sufficient evidence	+0.8range +0.6 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Caleb Walker	39.1%	-1.8range -3.3 to -0.4Sufficient evidence	+0.7range +0.5 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
AJ Patterson	31.6%	-3.0range -4.4 to -1.4Sufficient evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Kolby Gilles	31.6%	-4.1range -5.2 to -2.9Sufficient evidence	+0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Justin Hinds	25.7%	-2.6range -3.6 to -1.5Sufficient evidence	+0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Riley Dering	15.4%	-0.9range -1.8 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+0.3range +0.3 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Kyle Marshall	5.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Brendan Martin	5.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Josh Gatete	5.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Sam Imade	2.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Elliott Taite	1.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Chris Catchings	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading
Keaton Frisch	0.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$0 (assumed opted out)Loading	80% range $0 to $0 (assumption, not data)Loading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $0 (assumed opted out); 80% Range $0 to $0 (assumed)
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence

Assumed from one unverified press article that names schools that did not opt in. Methodology

No player figures. The Team Pool is $0.

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

No EADA match for this school.

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

No program revenue was published for this team.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	2
3 or more days	28

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology