Northwestern

B10 · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 147 · Raw net 1.8 · Tempo 65.3 · 34 Division I games · Through 2026-03-12

Record: 15–19; 15 wins
AdjNet: 8.9β; rank 73 of 365
AdjO: 113.8β; rank 73 of 365
AdjD: 104.9β; rank 89 of 365
AdjT: 66.3β
SOS: 8.8β; rank 27 of 363
NCSOS: -2.6β
WAB: -4.7β; rank 99 of 363
RR: -1.5β
Exp. W: 16.5β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	111.6107	109.8215	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	51.7159	51.0157	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	13.06	17.5119	16.7
Offensive rebound %	28.1259	34.7332	30.6
FTA / FGA %	33.9212	34.8169	35.0
Shooting
3P%	33.0233	33.4144	33.9
2P%	52.9133	51.6172	51.7
FT%	75.180	74.1268	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	34.0	40.2	39.5
Assists / FGM %	65.8	63.8	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	10.6	6.5	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	26.1	31.5	31.4
2-pointers %	54.2	48.3	48.8
Free throws %	19.7	20.2	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 9.2
Top Three Share of Minutes: 43%
Bench Share of Minutes: 36%
Players with Logged Minutes: 13

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-03	Mercyhurst	W 70–47	67.6	Home	1–0
11-07	Boston U.	W 76–52	60.3	Home	2–0
11-10	Cleveland St.	W 110–63	73.8	Home	3–0
11-14	DePaul	W 81–79	67.6	Away	4–0
11-21	Virginia	L 78–83	70.8	Neutral	4–1
11-23	South Carolina	W 79–77	63.9	Neutral	5–1
11-27	Oklahoma St.	L 81–86	72.5	Neutral	5–2
12-03	Wisconsin	L 73–85	69.4	Away	5–3
12-06	Ohio St.	L 82–86	71.5	Home	5–4
12-13	Jackson St.	W 93–53	72.7	Home	6–4
12-16	Valparaiso	W 86–70	68.5	Home	7–4
12-20	Butler	L 58–61	67.0	Neutral	7–5
12-30	Howard	W 80–60	63.7	Home	8–5
01-03	Minnesota	L 78–84	65.9	Home	8–6
01-08	Michigan St.	L 66–76	67.1	Away	8–7
01-11	Rutgers	L 75–77 1OT	70.8	Away	8–8
01-14	Illinois	L 68–79	59.4	Home	8–9
01-17	Nebraska	L 58–77	59.9	Home	8–10
01-21	Southern California	W 74–68	67.5	Away	9–10
01-24	UCLA	L 64–71	64.2	Away	9–11
01-29	Penn St.	W 94–73	67.9	Home	10–11
01-31	Washington	L 62–76	65.2	Home	10–12
02-04	Illinois	L 44–84	63.3	Away	10–13
02-08	Iowa	L 70–76	62.1	Away	10–14
02-11	Michigan	L 75–87	74.7	Home	10–15
02-14	Nebraska	L 49–68	64.5	Away	10–16
02-18	Maryland	W 78–74	65.9	Home	11–16
02-24	Indiana	W 72–68	61.1	Away	12–16
02-28	Oregon	W 63–62	63.7	Home	13–16
03-04	Purdue	L 66–70	57.5	Home	13–17
03-07	Minnesota	L 66–67	55.1	Away	13–18
03-10	Penn St.	W 76–66	63.6	Neutral	14–18
03-11	Indiana	W 74–61	60.7	Neutral	15–18
03-12	Purdue	L 68–81	59.4	Neutral	15–19

Roster · 13 players

Player logs in 34 of 34 team games

Team roster, per game
Column groups	Minutes			Per Game							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Nick Martinelli	33	35:36	86.1%	23.0	6.2	2.0	0.8	0.4	1.4	2.3	223–418	53.3%	45–108	41.7%	178–220	80.9%	55.2%	60.9%	41.8%	5	38:05 +2:29	95.2%	25.6 +2.6
Jayden Reid	34	25:45	64.1%	10.1	1.4	5.0	1.0	0.1	1.9	2.0	82–191	42.9%	32–101	31.7%	82–100	82.0%	44.5%	50.9%	34.2%	5	30:19 +4:34	75.8%	11.2 +1.1
Tre Singleton	34	25:01	62.3%	7.6	4.8	1.5	0.6	0.6	1.0	3.0	84–141	59.6%	9–54	16.7%	62–84	73.8%	50.0%	55.4%	43.1%	5	24:14 −0:47	60.6%	6.4 −1.2
Angelo Ciaravino	33	21:55	53.0%	6.3	3.9	1.2	0.4	0.6	0.4	1.8	73–121	60.3%	11–43	25.6%†	28–48	58.3%	54.6%	55.9%	29.3%	5	22:33 +0:38	56.4%	4.0 −2.3
Jake West	33	21:54	52.9%	5.3	0.8	2.8	0.6	0.2	1.0	1.6	34–77	44.2%	28–77	36.4%	24–31	77.4%	49.4%	52.5%	20.1%	4	31:30 +9:36	63.0%	10.5 +5.2
Arrinten Page	29	22:44	48.3%	10.2	4.5	1.8	0.9	1.2	1.2	1.7	102–163	62.6%	11–44	25.0%†	59–90	65.6%	57.2%	60.0%	43.5%	1	25:22 +2:38	12.7%	7.0 −3.2
Jordan Clayton	31	18:10	41.2%	3.9	1.7	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.5	2.1	8–19	42.1%†	32–78	41.0%	8–15	53.3%†	57.7%†	57.9%†	15.5%†	5	23:43 +5:33	59.3%	7.0 +3.1
Tyler Kropp	31	11:58	27.2%	3.1	2.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	1.3	31–66	47.0%†	3–11	27.3%†	24–26	92.3%	46.1%†	53.7%†	33.8%†	5	15:05 +3:07	37.7%	3.8 +0.7
Max Green	23	14:34	24.5%	4.3	1.8	1.0	0.7	0.1	0.3	1.0	14–32	43.8%	23–68	33.8%	3–5	60.0%†	48.5%	48.9%	5.0%	—	—	—	—
Justin Mullins	24	13:22	23.5%	3.2	1.6	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.6	1.4	18–31	58.1%†	10–31	32.3%†	11–22	50.0%†	53.2%†	53.7%†	35.5%†	5	15:06 +1:44	37.8%	2.2 −1.0
K.J. Windham	14	12:15	12.6%	3.5	1.4	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.4	3–10	30.0%†	12–36	33.3%†	7–7	100.0%†	45.7%†	49.9%†	15.2%†	1	0:00 −12:15	0.0%	0.0 −3.5
Phoenix GillUnder 100 minutes	11	3:14	2.6%	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	1–4	25.0%†	0–4	0.0%†	3–4	75.0%†	12.5%†	25.6%†	50.0%†	1	0:46 −2:28	0.4%	0.0 −0.5
Gus HurlburtFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	2	1:37	0.2%	2.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1–1	100.0%†	0–0	—	2–2	100.0%†	100.0%†	106.4%†	200.0%†	—	—	—	—
Team, games with logs · per game	34 games			73.1	30.5	17.2	not published	3.6	8.5	not published	674–1274	52.9%	216–655	33.0%	491–654	75.1%	51.7%	56.1%	33.9%
Sum of players				73.1	27.2	17.2	5.8	3.6	8.1	17.1	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0.0	+3.3	0.0	not published	0.0	+0.4	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $3.60M; 80% Range $2.55M to $4.90M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.60M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Nick Martinelli	88.6%	$660K	$370K to $1.05M	18.4%	$660K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Jayden Reid	63.7%	$195K	$24K to $410K	5.9%	$195K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tre Singleton	61.8%	$290K	$45K to $500K	8.9%	$290K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jake West	54.4%	$490K	$300K to $860K	13.3%	$490K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Angelo Ciaravino	52.9%	$485K	$300K to $860K	13.2%	$485K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Arrinten Page	47.1%	$275K	$97K to $460K	8.3%	$275K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Jordan Clayton	42.0%	$405K	$245K to $745K	10.8%	$405K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Tyler Kropp	28.2%	$160K	$54K to $260K	4.8%	$160K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Max Green	24.1%	$150K	$60K to $250K	4.5%	$150K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Justin Mullins	22.8%	$135K	$46K to $220K	4.0%	$135K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
K.J. Windham	11.3%	$115K	$73K to $195K	3.2%	$115K in all four	$27K	Limited evidence
Phoenix Gill	2.8%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Gus Hurlburt	0.3%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.60M	$2.55M to $4.90M	100%	$3.60M in all four	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Northwestern University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$14,431,898
Men's basketball expenses	$14,728,871
Athletics department expenses	$131,779,238
Athletics department revenue	$131,779,238

Team Totalsβ

Season per game, 34 games, 2,229 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	73.1	72.0
Field goals made	26.2	24.9
Field goals attempted	56.7	56.4
3-pointers made	6.4	7.6
3-pointers attempted	19.3	22.6
Free throws made	14.4	14.5
Free throws attempted	19.2	19.6
Offensive rebounds	9.1	11.4
Defensive rebounds	21.4	23.2
Total rebounds	30.5	34.6
Assists	17.2	15.9
Blocks	3.6	2.4
Turnovers	8.5	11.5
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 197.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 582.
Minutes (derived)	200.7	not published

34 of 34 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,487	2,487	0	±12.4	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	890	890	0	±4.5	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,929	1,929	0	±9.6	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	216	216	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	655	655	0	±3.3	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	491	491	0	±2.5	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	654	654	0	±3.3	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	1,037	926	+111	±83.0	0
Assists	Reconciled	586	586	0	±2.9	0
Blocks	Reconciled	121	121	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	290	277	+13	±8.7	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	197	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	582	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	6,825	6,806	+19.0	±136.5	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Nick Martinelli	88.6%	+2.1range +0.9 to +3.6Sufficient evidence
Jayden Reid	63.7%	-0.8range -2.0 to +0.6Sufficient evidence
Tre Singleton	61.8%	+0.7range -1.0 to +1.9Sufficient evidence
Jake West	54.4%	+2.7range +1.4 to +4.1Sufficient evidence
Angelo Ciaravino	52.9%	+2.9range +1.6 to +3.9Sufficient evidence
Arrinten Page	47.1%	+1.3range -0.1 to +2.6Sufficient evidence
Jordan Clayton	42.0%	+3.2range +1.7 to +4.1Sufficient evidence
Tyler Kropp	28.2%	+0.8range -0.2 to +1.8Sufficient evidence
Max Green	24.1%	+1.0range -0.1 to +2.3Sufficient evidence
Justin Mullins	22.8%	+0.9range -0.3 to +2.2Sufficient evidence
K.J. Windham	11.3%	+2.7range +1.4 to +3.8Limited evidence
Phoenix Gill	2.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Gus Hurlburt	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +11.0range +10.0 to +12.0Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

11 valued players hold 99.4% of on-court time. 2 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 0.6%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 2.3%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value