Northwestern

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Northwestern, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Nick Martinelli	88.6%	+2.1range +0.9 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	+6.3range +5.6 to +7.1Sufficient evidence	$660KspeculativeLoading	$370K to $1.05MLoading
Jayden Reid	63.7%	-0.8range -2.0 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+3.5range +3.0 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$195KspeculativeLoading	$24K to $410KLoading
Tre Singleton	61.8%	+0.7range -1.0 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+4.0range +3.3 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	$290KspeculativeLoading	$45K to $500KLoading
Jake West	54.4%	+2.7range +1.4 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	+4.2range +3.7 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$490KspeculativeLoading	$300K to $860KLoading
Angelo Ciaravino	52.9%	+2.9range +1.6 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.6 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$485KspeculativeLoading	$300K to $860KLoading
Arrinten Page	47.1%	+1.3range -0.1 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.8 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	$275KspeculativeLoading	$97K to $460KLoading
Jordan Clayton	42.0%	+3.2range +1.7 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.9 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	$405KspeculativeLoading	$245K to $745KLoading
Tyler Kropp	28.2%	+0.8range -0.2 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.6 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$160KspeculativeLoading	$54K to $260KLoading
Max Green	24.1%	+1.0range -0.1 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.4 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$150KspeculativeLoading	$60K to $250KLoading
Justin Mullins	22.8%	+0.9range -0.3 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+1.5range +1.3 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	$135KspeculativeLoading	$46K to $220KLoading
K.J. Windham	11.3%	+2.7range +1.4 to +3.8Limited evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Limited evidence	$115KspeculativeLoading	$73K to $195KLoading
Phoenix Gill	2.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Gus Hurlburt	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$27Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.60M; 80% Range $2.55M to $4.90M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.60M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Nick Martinelli	88.6%	$660K	$370K to $1.05M	18.4%	$660K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Jayden Reid	63.7%	$195K	$24K to $410K	5.9%	$195K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tre Singleton	61.8%	$290K	$45K to $500K	8.9%	$290K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jake West	54.4%	$490K	$300K to $860K	13.3%	$490K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Angelo Ciaravino	52.9%	$485K	$300K to $860K	13.2%	$485K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Arrinten Page	47.1%	$275K	$97K to $460K	8.3%	$275K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Jordan Clayton	42.0%	$405K	$245K to $745K	10.8%	$405K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Tyler Kropp	28.2%	$160K	$54K to $260K	4.8%	$160K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Max Green	24.1%	$150K	$60K to $250K	4.5%	$150K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
Justin Mullins	22.8%	$135K	$46K to $220K	4.0%	$135K in all four	$27K	Sufficient evidence
K.J. Windham	11.3%	$115K	$73K to $195K	3.2%	$115K in all four	$27K	Limited evidence
Phoenix Gill	2.8%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Gus Hurlburt	0.3%	$27K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$27K in all four	$27K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.60M	$2.55M to $4.90M	100%	$3.60M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Northwestern University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$14,431,898
Men's basketball expenses	$14,728,871
Athletics department expenses	$131,779,238
Athletics department revenue	$131,779,238

Coverage and exclusions

32 of 34 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 34 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$14,431,898	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$14,728,871	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	2
3 or more days	29

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	2
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology