Fresno St.

MWC · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 206 · Raw net -1.7 · Tempo 69.4 · 31 Division I games · Through 2026-03-11

Record: 12–19; 12 wins
AdjNet: 0.8β; rank 160 of 365
AdjO: 105.7β; rank 234 of 365
AdjD: 104.9β; rank 88 of 365
AdjT: 69.1β
SOS: 2.6β; rank 98 of 363
NCSOS: -2.6β
WAB: -9.8β; rank 222 of 363
RR: -2.0β
Exp. W: 14.0β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	104.3265	106.0106	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	50.6206	51.5184	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	18.1279	18.288	16.7
Offensive rebound %	27.9271	30.6182	30.6
FTA / FGA %	33.8218	28.637	35.0
Shooting
3P%	32.1274	30.729	33.9
2P%	52.3156	55.7322	51.7
FT%	75.178	72.5183	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	40.9	44.0	39.5
Assists / FGM %	49.9	51.5	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	6.6	9.8	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	31.2	32.8	31.4
2-pointers %	48.8	50.5	48.8
Free throws %	20.1	16.8	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 8.8
Top Three Share of Minutes: 46%
Bench Share of Minutes: 32%
Players with Logged Minutes: 14

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-05	USC Upstate	L 66–67	70.8	Home	0–1
11-08	Long Beach St.	W 82–62	71.6	Home	1–1
11-12	UC San Diego	L 73–78	71.1	Home	1–2
11-15	Utah Valley	W 75–74	70.9	Home	2–2
11-18	SFA	W 80–78	67.9	Home	3–2
11-21	LSU New Orleans	W 85–76	77.5	Home	4–2
11-26	Pepperdine	W 76–53	68.8	Neutral	5–2
11-30	CSU Bakersfield	L 71–76	71.2	Home	5–3
12-06	Arkansas	L 58–82	73.1	Away	5–4
12-10	CSUN	L 87–89	71.6	Away	5–5
12-20	UNLV	L 72–84	68.8	Away	5–6
12-30	Utah St.	L 63–72	76.0	Home	5–7
01-03	Nevada	L 65–66	64.9	Home	5–8
01-06	San Jose St.	W 70–55	63.5	Away	6–8
01-10	San Diego St.	L 52–71	74.0	Away	6–9
01-13	Colorado St.	W 79–69	62.5	Home	7–9
01-17	Wyoming	W 63–60	60.8	Home	8–9
01-21	New Mexico	L 74–83	78.7	Away	8–10
01-24	Grand Canyon	L 57–68	66.1	Home	8–11
01-31	Air Force	W 79–62	71.4	Away	9–11
02-03	UNLV	W 98–96	79.5	Home	10–11
02-07	Nevada	L 59–69	63.2	Away	10–12
02-10	Utah St.	L 78–91	70.0	Away	10–13
02-14	Air Force	W 93–63	72.9	Home	11–13
02-17	Wyoming	L 82–92	65.3	Away	11–14
02-21	New Mexico	L 78–80	67.2	Home	11–15
02-24	Colorado St.	L 70–74	66.7	Away	11–16
02-28	Boise St.	L 53–69	60.0	Home	11–17
03-03	San Jose St.	W 82–68	68.2	Home	12–17
03-07	Grand Canyon	L 60–85	72.7	Away	12–18
03-11	Colorado St.	L 63–67	63.0	Neutral	12–19

Roster · 14 players

Player logs in 31 of 31 team games

Team roster, per 40 minutes
Column groups	Minutes			Per 40 Minutes							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Jake Heidbreder	29	36:42	85.8%	18.4	3.0	2.3	1.6	0.2	2.3	2.0	83–161	51.6%	66–210	31.4%	126–138	91.3%	49.1%	56.7%	37.2%	5	37:38 +0:56	94.1%	13.4 −3.5
DeShawn Gory	31	29:33	73.9%	18.6	8.6	2.8	1.0	0.5	2.1	2.3	141–248	56.9%	30–110	27.3%	53–81	65.4%	52.0%	54.0%	22.6%	5	36:54 +7:21	92.2%	16.4 +2.7
Wilson Jacques	31	27:35	68.9%	13.0	12.7	1.5	1.2	1.1	2.3	3.8	103–208	49.5%	4–13	30.8%†	59–79	74.7%	49.3%	54.2%	35.7%	5	31:02 +3:27	77.6%	11.2 +2.3
Zaon Collins	25	30:59	62.5%	15.1	4.2	5.9	2.6	0.0	3.6	2.8	91–180	50.6%	17–54	31.5%	59–83	71.1%	49.8%	54.0%	35.5%	1	17:38 −13:21	8.8%	6.0 −5.7
Cameron Faas	31	19:11	48.0%	10.7	4.6	0.7	1.1	0.2	1.0	4.0	13–29	44.8%	42–113	37.2%	7–8	87.5%†	53.5%	54.6%	5.6%	5	25:28 +6:17	63.7%	6.2 +1.1
Bastien Rieber	31	16:25	41.1%	9.6	3.0	3.7	0.5	0.1	2.9	5.3	18–43	41.9%†	16–45	35.6%†	38–51	74.5%	47.7%†	55.2%†	58.0%†	5	30:31 +14:05	76.3%	4.0 +0.1
Gasper Kocevar	25	13:16	26.8%	9.8	6.5	1.9	1.1	1.1	1.9	3.3	25–40	62.5%†	4–8	50.0%†	19–35	54.3%	64.6%†	63.9%†	72.9%†	4	16:57 +3:41	33.9%	5.0 +1.8
David Douglas Jr.	18	17:28	25.4%	16.5	3.3	0.4	0.8	0.3	1.3	3.1	10–19	52.6%†	29–73	39.7%	23–32	71.9%	58.2%†	61.3%†	34.8%†	—	—	—	—
Jac Mani	25	11:48	23.8%	19.6	8.8	1.4	0.7	0.7	2.8	5.8	35–65	53.8%	14–48	29.2%†	33–48	68.8%	49.6%	54.1%	42.5%	3	15:56 +4:08	23.9%	9.3 +3.5
DJ Stickman	20	14:16	23.0%	9.7	6.7	3.5	2.8	0.4	3.5	3.8	18–32	56.3%†	4–8	50.0%†	21–29	72.4%	60.0%†	65.4%†	72.5%†	—	—	—	—
Aram Soqui Urbano	14	8:47	9.9%	9.1	2.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	1.0	4.9	3–7	42.9%†	6–22	27.3%†	4–6	66.7%†	41.4%†	44.2%†	20.7%†	5	8:57 +0:09	22.4%	1.6 −0.4
Makhan DioufUnder 100 minutes	17	3:48	5.2%	11.7	13.0	1.9	1.2	3.1	5.6	6.8	5–11	45.5%†	1–11	9.1%†	6–7	85.7%†	29.5%†	37.9%†	31.8%†	2	1:44 −2:04	1.7%	4.0 +2.9
Matteo PortoUnder 100 minutes	13	3:21	3.5%	5.5	2.8	0.0	0.0	0.9	0.9	1.8	2–3	66.7%†	0–9	0.0%†	2–2	100.0%†	16.7%†	23.3%†	16.7%†	3	2:36 −0:45	3.9%	0.7 +0.2
Troy JenkinsFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	2	2:53	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.0	0–0	—	0–1	0.0%†	0–0	—	0.0%†	0.0%†	0.0%†	—	—	—	—
Team, games with logs · per 40 team minutes	31 games			72.4	34.1	12.5	not published	2.2	12.6	not published	547–1046	52.3%	233–725	32.1%	450–599	75.1%	50.6%	55.1%	33.8%
Sum of players				72.4	30.9	12.5	6.7	2.2	11.8	16.7	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0.0	+3.1	0.0	not published	0.0	+0.7	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $910K; 80% Range $395K to $2.05M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $720K to $985K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Jake Heidbreder	84.7%	$130K	$34K to $350K	15.8%	$105K to $140K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
DeShawn Gory	72.8%	$100K	$11K to $295K	12.7%	$79K to $105K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Wilson Jacques	69.4%	$140K	$49K to $375K	15.2%	$110K to $150K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zaon Collins	62.9%	$99K	$26K to $265K	12.1%	$80K to $110K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cameron Faas	46.9%	$100K	$34K to $275K	10.6%	$79K to $110K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bastien Rieber	41.7%	$41K	$5K to $135K	5.8%	$33K to $45K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Gasper Kocevar	27.4%	$31K	$6K to $92K	4.3%	$24K to $33K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
David Douglas Jr.	27.0%	$31K	$6K to $99K	4.3%	$25K to $34K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
DJ Stickman	24.0%	$45K	$12K to $130K	5.3%	$35K to $48K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jac Mani	23.9%	$70K	$27K to $200K	6.8%	$55K to $76K	$6K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aram Soqui Urbano	9.9%	$11K	$3K to $33K	1.4%	$9K to $12K	$6K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Makhan Diouf	5.4%	$6K	$2K to $15K	0.7%	$5K to $7K	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Matteo Porto	3.5%	$6K	$2K to $15K	0.7%	$5K to $7K	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Troy Jenkins	0.5%	$6K	$2K to $15K	0.7%	$5K to $7K	$6K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$910K	$395K to $2.05M	100%	$720K to $985K	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, California State University-Fresno (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$4,478,222	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$4,478,222
Athletics department expenses	$63,439,685
Athletics department revenue	$63,439,685

Team Totalsβ

Season per 40 minutes, 31 games, 2,150 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Per 40 uses 1240 game minutes, 5 per overtime period. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	72.4	73.5
Field goals made	25.2	26.6
Field goals attempted	57.1	59.4
3-pointers made	7.5	8.0
3-pointers attempted	23.4	26.1
Free throws made	14.5	12.3
Free throws attempted	19.3	17.0
Offensive rebounds	9.5	10.8
Defensive rebounds	24.5	24.6
Total rebounds	34.1	35.5
Assists	12.5	13.7
Blocks	2.2	3.3
Turnovers	12.6	12.6
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 207.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 519.
Minutes (derived)	200.0	not published

31 of 31 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,243	2,243	0	±11.2	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	780	780	0	±3.9	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,771	1,771	0	±8.9	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	233	233	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	725	725	0	±3.6	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	450	450	0	±2.3	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	599	599	0	±3.0	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	1,056	959	+97	±84.5	0
Assists	Reconciled	389	389	0	±2.0	0
Blocks	Reconciled	68	68	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	390	367	+23	±11.7	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	207	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	519	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	6,200	6,178	+22.3	±124.0	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Jake Heidbreder	84.7%	+0.5range -0.5 to +1.4Sufficient evidence
DeShawn Gory	72.8%	+0.0range -1.2 to +1.5Sufficient evidence
Wilson Jacques	69.4%	+1.1range -0.1 to +2.2Sufficient evidence
Zaon Collins	62.9%	+0.4range -0.6 to +1.6Sufficient evidence
Cameron Faas	46.9%	+1.0range -0.1 to +2.2Sufficient evidence
Bastien Rieber	41.7%	-0.5range -1.7 to +0.7Sufficient evidence
Gasper Kocevar	27.4%	-0.5range -1.3 to +0.4Sufficient evidence
David Douglas Jr.	27.0%	-0.4range -1.6 to +0.8Sufficient evidence
DJ Stickman	24.0%	+0.6range -0.9 to +1.9Sufficient evidence
Jac Mani	23.9%	+1.7range +0.9 to +2.6Sufficient evidence
Aram Soqui Urbano	9.9%	-1.4range -2.1 to -0.7Limited evidence
Makhan Diouf	5.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Matteo Porto	3.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Troy Jenkins	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +9.7range +8.8 to +10.5Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

11 valued players hold 98.1% of on-court time. 3 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 1.9%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 2.0%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value