Jake Heidbreder
Fresno St. · 2025–26 · 29 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
1064:23 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 29
- Minutes per game
- 36:42
- Points per game
- 16.9
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 2.7 / 2.1
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 16.9 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Per 40 minutes | 18.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Season totals | 490 | 79 | 62 | 42 | 4 | 61 | 52 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 149–371 | 40.2% | 12.8 | 13.9 |
| 2P | 83–161 | 51.6% | 5.6 | 6.1 |
| 3P | 66–210 | 31.4% | 7.2 | 7.9 |
| FT | 126–138 | 91.3% | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.1% | 56.7% | 56.6% | 37.2% | 1.02 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Fresno St · Mid and high major · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $130K
- 80% range $34K to $350K
- Median share of team pool
- 15.8%
- team pool $910K, 80% range $395K to $2.05M
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $105K to $140K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $6K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 84.7%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Fresno St: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Fresno St | $130Kspeculative | $34K to $350K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | +0.5 | -0.5 to +1.4 | Sufficient evidence | -0.1 | +0.6 | +5.0range +4.4 to +5.6 | 3,287 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | Clemson | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | +0.1 | -0.9 to +1.1 | Sufficient evidence | +1.5 | -1.3 | +1.4range +1.1 to +1.6 | 1,250 | Season detail | |
| 2023 | Air Force | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -0.2 | -0.9 to +0.7 | Sufficient evidence | +0.6 | -0.8 | +3.5range +2.9 to +4.2 | 2,811 | Season detail | |
| 2022 | Air Force | None: no budget that season | — | development: in model selection | +0.2 | -0.8 to +1.0 | Limited evidence | +0.9 | -0.7 | Not computed for this season | 452 | Limited evidence: 300 to 599 on-court possessions. |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 37:38 | 36:42 | 18:41–40:00 | |
| Points | 13.4 | 16.9 | 3.0–33.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 37.3% | 46.9% | 10.0%–92.9% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Colorado St. | L 63–67 | 40:00 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8-15 | 4-9 | 6-6 | 66.7% |
| 2026-03-07 | Grand Canyon | L 60–85 | 36:31 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 25.0% |
| 2026-03-03 | San Jose St. | W 82–68 | 39:43 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5-15 | 3-10 | 7-7 | 43.3% |
| 2026-02-28 | Boise St. | L 53–69 | 36:33 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 16.7% |
| 2026-02-24 | Colorado St. | L 70–74 | 35:23 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 4-5 | 35.0% |
| 2026-02-21 | New Mexico | L 78–80 | 35:48 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8-16 | 3-10 | 3-4 | 59.4% |
| 2026-02-10 | Utah St. | L 78–91 | 18:41 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5-10 | 3-8 | 6-6 | 65.0% |
| 2026-02-07 | Nevada | L 59–69 | 37:13 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3-11 | 2-8 | 5-6 | 36.4% |
| 2026-02-03 | UNLV | W 98–96 | 39:23 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9-14 | 4-7 | 7-9 | 78.6% |
| 2026-01-31 | Air Force | W 79–62 | 35:40 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5-12 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 54.2% |
| 2026-01-24 | Grand Canyon | L 57–68 | 37:31 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 10-10 | 20.0% |
| 2026-01-21 | New Mexico | L 74–83 | 39:35 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 4-15 | 4-10 | 5-5 | 40.0% |
| 2026-01-17 | Wyoming | W 63–60 | 35:04 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 4-5 | 33.3% |
| 2026-01-13 | Colorado St. | W 79–69 | 36:51 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 16-16 | 58.3% |
| 2026-01-10 | San Diego St. | L 52–71 | 33:38 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3-15 | 3-11 | 2-2 | 30.0% |
| 2026-01-06 | San Jose St. | W 70–55 | 39:56 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2-11 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 18.2% |
| 2026-01-03 | Nevada | L 65–66 | 38:39 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9-19 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 60.5% |
| 2025-12-30 | Utah St. | L 63–72 | 37:55 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7-19 | 3-9 | 4-4 | 44.7% |
| 2025-12-20 | UNLV | L 72–84 | 38:51 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7-16 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2025-12-10 | CSUN | L 87–89 | 40:00 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5-15 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 43.3% |
| 2025-12-06 | Arkansas | L 58–82 | 33:22 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1-10 | 0-5 | 6-6 | 10.0% |
| 2025-11-30 | CSU Bakersfield | L 71–76 | 36:27 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7-15 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 53.3% |
| 2025-11-26 | Pepperdine | W 76–53 | 34:01 | 27 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11-18 | 4-11 | 1-1 | 72.2% |
| 2025-11-21 | LSU New Orleans | W 85–76 | 38:37 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11-14 | 4-6 | 7-8 | 92.9% |
| 2025-11-18 | SFA | W 80–78 | 38:14 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 2-3 | 45.0% |
| 2025-11-15 | Utah Valley | W 75–74 | 38:32 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6-11 | 2-6 | 4-6 | 63.6% |
| 2025-11-12 | UC San Diego | L 73–78 | 39:30 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5-15 | 2-10 | 4-4 | 40.0% |
| 2025-11-08 | Long Beach St. | W 82–62 | 35:52 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8-13 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 69.2% |
| 2025-11-05 | USC Upstate | L 66–67 | 36:53 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3-13 | 3-10 | 3-4 | 34.6% |