CSU Bakersfield
BW · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 344 · Raw net -15.7 · Tempo 72.6 · 30 Division I games · Through 2026-03-07
Scouting Report
| Category | Offense | Defense | D-I Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | |||
| Efficiency / 100 poss. | 99.1336 | 114.8321 | 108.5 |
| Four Factors | |||
| Effective FG% | 45.7355 | 54.0301 | 51.4 |
| TO / 100 poss. | 18.9317 | 17.9100 | 16.7 |
| Offensive rebound % | 30.4181 | 35.6349 | 30.6 |
| FTA / FGA % | 42.227 | 42.6334 | 35.0 |
| Shooting | |||
| 3P% | 29.0354 | 36.0304 | 33.9 |
| 2P% | 46.6337 | 53.9272 | 51.7 |
| FT% | 73.8143 | 72.9210 | 72.5 |
| Style | |||
| 3PA / FGA % | 28.9 | 39.0 | 39.5 |
| Assists / FGM % | 44.6 | 54.2 | 52.6 |
| Blocks / opp. 2PA % | 13.6 | 9.1 | 9.5 |
| Point Distribution | |||
| 3-pointers % | 20.6 | 30.3 | 31.4 |
| 2-pointers % | 54.0 | 47.3 | 48.8 |
| Free throws % | 25.4 | 22.3 | 19.8 |
Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.
Rotation Depth
- Effective Rotation Size
- 9.5
- Top Three Share of Minutes
- 40%
- Bench Share of Minutes
- 38%
- Players with Logged Minutes
- 13
Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions
Schedule and Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | Poss. | Site | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-03 | California | L 60–87 | 73.1 | Away | 0–1 |
| 11-11 | Western Ill. | W 74–58 | 67.0 | Home | 1–1 |
| 11-14 | Ole Miss | L 60–82 | 62.4 | Away | 1–2 |
| 11-17 | Portland St. | L 80–93 | 74.1 | Away | 1–3 |
| 11-22 | Mississippi Val. | W 86–70 | 74.9 | Home | 2–3 |
| 11-25 | Florida St. | L 59–89 | 81.1 | Away | 2–4 |
| 11-30 | Fresno St. | W 76–71 | 71.2 | Away | 3–4 |
| 12-04 | CSUN | L 66–87 | 74.1 | Away | 3–5 |
| 12-06 | UC Santa Barbara | L 84–109 | 72.9 | Away | 3–6 |
| 12-11 | North Dakota St. | L 69–80 | 73.3 | Home | 3–7 |
| 12-13 | Pepperdine | L 62–70 | 67.5 | Home | 3–8 |
| 12-23 | Idaho | W 64–63 | 65.5 | Home | 4–8 |
| 01-01 | UC Irvine | L 77–81 | 69.7 | Home | 4–9 |
| 01-03 | UC Davis | W 81–79 | 71.7 | Away | 5–9 |
| 01-08 | UC Riverside | W 67–66 | 70.0 | Home | 6–9 |
| 01-10 | Long Beach St. | L 75–81 | 75.6 | Away | 6–10 |
| 01-15 | UC Santa Barbara | L 69–75 | 61.9 | Home | 6–11 |
| 01-17 | UC San Diego | L 62–83 | 71.2 | Home | 6–12 |
| 01-23 | Hawaii | L 71–98 | 77.3 | — | 6–13 |
| 01-29 | Cal Poly | L 79–104 | 77.6 | Home | 6–14 |
| 01-31 | UC Davis | L 72–80 | 69.6 | Home | 6–15 |
| 02-05 | UC Irvine | L 62–78 | 73.2 | Away | 6–16 |
| 02-07 | Cal St. Fullerton | L 66–82 | 74.2 | Away | 6–17 |
| 02-12 | Hawaii | L 74–89 | 72.3 | Home | 6–18 |
| 02-19 | UC Riverside | L 65–93 | 77.1 | Away | 6–19 |
| 02-21 | Cal St. Fullerton | L 80–88 | 73.4 | Home | 6–20 |
| 02-26 | UC San Diego | L 72–84 | 71.4 | Away | 6–21 |
| 02-28 | Long Beach St. | L 87–88 | 74.2 | Home | 6–22 |
| 03-05 | CSUN | L 84–86 | 79.5 | Home | 6–23 |
| 03-07 | Cal Poly | L 76–108 | 82.5 | Away | 6–24 |
Roster · 13 players
Player logs in 30 of 30 team games
| Column groups | Minutes | Per Game | Shooting | Last Five Team Games | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | MPG | Team Min% | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | 2P | 2P% | 3P | 3P% | FT | FT% | eFG% | TS% | FTA/FGA | G | MPG | Min% | Pts/G |
| Dailin Smith | 29 | 29:33 | 71.4% | 16.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 82–203 | 40.4% | 44–156 | 28.2% | 189–234 | 80.8% | 41.2% | 52.5% | 65.2% | 5 | 32:09 +2:36 | 80.4% | 19.4 +2.7 |
| AJ George | 28 | 28:21 | 66.2% | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 85–193 | 44.0% | 10–44 | 22.7%† | 35–54 | 64.8% | 42.2% | 45.1% | 22.8% | 3 | 21:20 −7:02 | 32.0% | 6.0 −2.4 |
| Ronald Jessamy | 29 | 26:21 | 63.7% | 13.2 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 141–266 | 53.0% | 3–15 | 20.0%† | 93–134 | 69.4% | 51.8% | 56.5% | 47.7% | 5 | 31:06 +4:45 | 77.8% | 21.8 +8.6 |
| Tom Mark | 26 | 25:18 | 54.8% | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 44–83 | 53.0% | 17–53 | 32.1% | 32–47 | 68.1% | 51.1% | 54.6% | 34.6% | 5 | 28:31 +3:13 | 71.3% | 10.0 +3.4 |
| Kadar Waller | 30 | 20:18 | 50.7% | 3.1 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 22–64 | 34.4%† | 7–25 | 28.0%† | 29–39 | 74.4% | 36.5%† | 44.3%† | 43.8%† | 5 | 27:15 +6:57 | 68.1% | 3.6 +0.5 |
| CJ Hardy | 20 | 28:56 | 48.2% | 12.3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 58–118 | 49.2% | 20–65 | 30.8% | 69–84 | 82.1% | 48.1% | 55.7% | 45.9% | 5 | 30:35 +1:39 | 76.5% | 9.8 −2.4 |
| Mike Price | 29 | 18:05 | 43.7% | 6.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 42–105 | 40.0% | 29–90 | 32.2% | 15–22 | 68.2%† | 43.8% | 45.4% | 11.3% | 4 | 13:42 −4:23 | 27.4% | 3.0 −3.4 |
| Pierre Geneste Jr. | 24 | 18:45 | 37.5% | 2.7 | 6.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 28–46 | 60.9%† | 0–0 | — | 9–26 | 34.6% | 60.9%† | 56.6%† | 56.5%† | 1 | 11:19 −7:26 | 5.7% | 2.0 −0.7 |
| Jaden Alexander | 18 | 19:35 | 29.4% | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 39–90 | 43.3% | 12–31 | 38.7%† | 56–68 | 82.4% | 47.1% | 56.3% | 56.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Bentley Waller | 21 | 10:02 | 17.6% | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 20–47 | 42.6%† | 5–15 | 33.3%† | 14–16 | 87.5%† | 44.4%† | 50.0%† | 25.8%† | 5 | 15:30 +5:27 | 38.7% | 6.2 +2.9 |
| Dylan Purnell | 14 | 7:53 | 9.2% | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 12–23 | 52.2%† | 1–9 | 11.1%† | 5–15 | 33.3%† | 42.2%† | 41.5%† | 46.9%† | 3 | 10:57 +3:03 | 16.4% | 3.7 +1.4 |
| Caleb McCartyFew gamesUnder 100 minutes | 5 | 9:55 | 4.1% | 3.8 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 8–12 | 66.7%† | 0–0 | — | 3–4 | 75.0%† | 66.7%† | 69.0%† | 33.3%† | — | — | — | — |
| TJ James Jr.Few gamesUnder 100 minutes | 8 | 3:05 | 2.1% | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2–2 | 100.0%† | 0–7 | 0.0%† | 0–1 | 0.0%† | 22.2%† | 21.2%† | 11.1%† | 1 | 9:29 +6:24 | 4.7% | 2.0 +1.5 |
| Team, games with logs · per game | 30 games | 72.0 | 34.3 | 10.9 | not published | 5.0 | 13.7 | not published | 583–1252 | 46.6% | 148–510 | 29.0% | 549–744 | 73.8% | 45.7% | 51.7% | 42.2% | ||||||
| Sum of players | 72.0 | 30.7 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 13.3 | 20.1 | Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals. | |||||||||||||||
| Residual: team minus players | 0.0 | +3.6 | 0.0 | not published | 0.0 | +0.4 | not published | ||||||||||||||||
G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.
Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β
Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.
- Team Pool
- $205K
- 80% Range $72K to $540K
- Tier
- Low and other
- low evidence
- Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $190K to $225K
- Scenario medians
- Players with Figures
- 13
- 2 floor only
The widest scenario range, $82K to $600K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology
| Player | Poss. Share | Speculative Best Guess | 80% Range | Range Graphic | Median % of Team Pool | Scenarios Z1 to Z4 | Floor Part | Evidence and Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dailin Smith | 71.8% | $7K | $1K to $46K | 6.2% | $7K to $8K | $1K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Ronald Jessamy | 66.4% | $30K | $2K to $125K | 15.5% | $28K to $33K | $1K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| AJ George | 65.1% | $10K | $1K to $54K | 8.7% | $10K to $12K | $1K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Tom Mark | 55.2% | $20K | $1K to $81K | 11.6% | $19K to $23K | $1K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Kadar Waller | 50.5% | $4K | $1K to $27K | 1.9% | $4K to $5K | $1K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| CJ Hardy | 49.6% | $13K | $1K to $54K | 9.3% | $12K to $15K | $1K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Mike Price | 42.6% | $4K | $1K to $23K | 1.2% | $4K in all four | $1K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Pierre Geneste Jr. | 37.6% | $14K | $2K to $57K | 8.3% | $13K to $16K | $1K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Jaden Alexander | 29.1% | $29K | $7K to $140K | 11.3% | $27K to $32K | $1K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Bentley Waller | 17.4% | $4K | $1K to $15K | 2.6% | $3K to $4K | $1K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Dylan Purnell | 8.4% | $2K | $1K to $8K | 1.1% | $2K to $3K | $1K | Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Caleb McCarty | 4.4% | $1K | $0 to $4K | 0.8% | $1K to $2K | $1K | Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| TJ James Jr. | 1.9% | $1K | $0 to $4K | 0.8% | $1K to $2K | $1K | Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Team Pool | — | $205K | $72K to $540K | 100% | $190K to $225K | — |
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)
Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.
| Measure | School-Reported Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Men's basketball revenue | $2,268,332 | Equals expenses (budget identity) |
| Men's basketball expenses | $2,268,332 | |
| Athletics department expenses | $18,028,334 | |
| Athletics department revenue | $18,028,334 |
Team Totalsβ
Season per game, 30 games, 2,179 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions
| Statistic | Team | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 72.0 | 83.4 |
| Field goals made | 24.4 | 28.2 |
| Field goals attempted | 58.7 | 60.0 |
| 3-pointers made | 4.9 | 8.4 |
| 3-pointers attempted | 17.0 | 23.4 |
| Free throws made | 18.3 | 18.6 |
| Free throws attempted | 24.8 | 25.6 |
| Offensive rebounds | 11.4 | 12.7 |
| Defensive rebounds | 22.9 | 26.0 |
| Total rebounds | 34.3 | 38.7 |
| Assists | 10.9 | 15.3 |
| Blocks | 5.0 | 3.8 |
| Turnovers | 13.7 | 13.0 |
| Steals | No team figure. Players sum to 222. | |
| Personal fouls | No team figure. Players sum to 603. | |
| Minutes (derived) | 200.0 | not published |
30 of 30 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions
| Statistic | Status | Team Total, Logged Games | Sum of Players | Residual | Tolerance | Team Total, Games Without Logs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | Reconciled | 2,159 | 2,159 | 0 | ±10.8 | 0 |
| Field goals made | Reconciled | 731 | 731 | 0 | ±3.7 | 0 |
| Field goals attempted | Reconciled | 1,762 | 1,762 | 0 | ±8.8 | 0 |
| 3-pointers made | Reconciled | 148 | 148 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| 3-pointers attempted | Reconciled | 510 | 510 | 0 | ±2.6 | 0 |
| Free throws made | Reconciled | 549 | 549 | 0 | ±2.7 | 0 |
| Free throws attempted | Reconciled | 744 | 744 | 0 | ±3.7 | 0 |
| Offensive rebounds | No player split | not published | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| Defensive rebounds | No player split | not published | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| Total rebounds | Residual shown | 1,029 | 922 | +107 | ±82.3 | 0 |
| Assists | Reconciled | 326 | 326 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| Blocks | Reconciled | 149 | 149 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | Reconciled | 411 | 399 | +12 | ±12.3 | 0 |
| Steals | No team figure | not published | 222 | not published | not published | not published |
| Personal fouls | No team figure | not published | 603 | not published | not published | not published |
| Minutes (derived) | Reconciled | 6,000 | 5,983 | +17.2 | ±120.0 | 0 |
Model-Implied Player Valueβ
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.
| Player | Poss. Share | Net and Rangeβ | Range Graphic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dailin Smith | 71.8% | -2.3range -3.3 to -1.2Sufficient evidence | |
| Ronald Jessamy | 66.4% | -0.4range -1.8 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | |
| AJ George | 65.1% | -1.8range -3.3 to -0.4Sufficient evidence | |
| Tom Mark | 55.2% | -0.8range -1.9 to +0.3Sufficient evidence | |
| Kadar Waller | 50.5% | -3.2range -4.7 to -1.6Sufficient evidence | |
| CJ Hardy | 49.6% | -1.2range -2.3 to -0.1Sufficient evidence | |
| Mike Price | 42.6% | -3.2range -4.5 to -1.9Sufficient evidence | |
| Pierre Geneste Jr. | 37.6% | -0.6range -1.5 to +0.2Sufficient evidence | |
| Jaden Alexander | 29.1% | +0.6range -0.4 to +1.7Sufficient evidence | |
| Bentley Waller | 17.4% | -1.9range -2.7 to -0.9Sufficient evidence | |
| Dylan Purnell | 8.4% | -2.4range -3.0 to -1.8Limited evidence | |
| Caleb McCarty | 4.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | |
| TJ James Jr. | 1.9% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence |
Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β
Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology
- Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions
- +7.8range +7.1 to +8.6Sufficient evidence
200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.
11 valued players hold 98.7% of on-court time. 2 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 1.3%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 1.7%.