Penn St.

B10 · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 291 · Raw net -8.4 · Tempo 67.5 · 32 Division I games · Through 2026-03-10

Record: 12–20; 12 wins
AdjNet: -0.8β; rank 184 of 365
AdjO: 111.4β; rank 106 of 365
AdjD: 112.3β; rank 274 of 365
AdjT: 68.4β
SOS: 7.4β; rank 47 of 363
NCSOS: -6.2β
WAB: -7.9β; rank 178 of 363
RR: 1.2β
Exp. W: 10.8β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	109.2148	117.6345	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	53.0102	58.4363	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	15.6110	17.7113	16.7
Offensive rebound %	25.9325	31.1212	30.6
FTA / FGA %	33.8219	27.528	35.0
Shooting
3P%	32.4264	38.8363	33.9
2P%	55.846	58.6357	51.7
FT%	75.083	76.9357	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	38.1	43.4	39.5
Assists / FGM %	48.3	60.4	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	5.2	9.8	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	28.1	36.6	31.4
2-pointers %	52.6	48.1	48.8
Free throws %	19.3	15.3	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 8.9
Top Three Share of Minutes: 42%
Bench Share of Minutes: 34%
Players with Logged Minutes: 12

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-03	Fairfield	W 76–68	69.1	Home	1–0
11-08	New Haven	W 87–43	62.2	Away	2–0
11-11	Navy	W 80–71	68.6	Home	3–0
11-15	La Salle	W 83–69	63.7	Neutral	4–0
11-19	Harvard	W 84–80	63.8	Home	5–0
11-22	Providence	L 65–77	70.3	Neutral	5–1
11-25	Boston U.	W 96–87	63.6	Home	6–1
11-29	Sacred Heart	W 90–59	77.5	Home	7–1
12-02	Campbell	W 87–76	73.0	Home	8–1
12-09	Indiana	L 72–113	73.3	Away	8–2
12-13	Michigan St.	L 72–76	69.1	Home	8–3
12-21	Pittsburgh	L 46–80	65.0	Neutral	8–4
12-29	N.C. Central	W 90–67	68.3	Home	9–4
01-03	Illinois	L 65–73	67.5	Home	9–5
01-06	Michigan	L 72–74	71.5	Home	9–6
01-10	Purdue	L 85–93	66.7	Away	9–7
01-14	UCLA	L 60–71	60.0	Home	9–8
01-18	Maryland	L 73–96	65.5	Away	9–9
01-22	Wisconsin	L 71–98	71.0	Home	9–10
01-26	Ohio St.	L 78–84	68.5	Away	9–11
01-29	Northwestern	L 73–94	67.9	Away	9–12
02-01	Minnesota	W 77–75	63.7	Home	10–12
02-05	Michigan	L 69–110	71.2	Away	10–13
02-08	Southern California	L 75–77	72.3	Home	10–14
02-11	Washington	W 63–60	65.4	Away	11–14
02-14	Oregon	L 72–83	65.6	Away	11–15
02-18	Rutgers	L 72–85	68.2	Home	11–16
02-21	Nebraska	L 64–87	69.4	Away	11–17
02-28	Iowa	W 71–69	59.4	Home	12–17
03-04	Ohio St.	L 62–94	64.8	Home	12–18
03-08	Rutgers	L 62–74	69.3	Away	12–19
03-10	Northwestern	L 66–76	63.6	Neutral	12–20

Roster · 12 players

Player logs in 32 of 32 team games

Team roster, season totals
Column groups	Minutes			Season Totals							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Josh Reed	32	28:13	70.5%	367	131	33	33	3	35	51	88–159	55.3%	32–87	36.8%	95–109	87.2%	55.3%	62.4%	44.3%	5	31:40 +3:28	79.2%	13.0 +1.5
Kayden Mingo	28	32:00	70.0%	383	98	121	58	5	57	53	123–216	56.9%	21–86	24.4%	74–105	70.5%	51.2%	55.0%	34.8%	4	33:59 +2:00	68.0%	12.0 −1.7
Freddie Dilione V	32	27:17	68.2%	448	102	71	39	6	47	42	132–236	55.9%	42–132	31.8%	58–71	81.7%	53.0%	56.1%	19.3%	5	27:58 +0:41	69.9%	12.6 −1.4
Ivan Juric	30	26:21	61.8%	305	158	24	12	7	58	91	94–136	69.1%	15–53	28.3%	72–109	66.1%	61.6%	64.4%	57.7%	5	27:06 +0:45	67.7%	15.4 +5.2
Dominick Stewart	32	22:27	56.1%	211	70	52	22	7	26	76	30–60	50.0%	39–112	34.8%	34–43	79.1%	51.5%	55.3%	25.0%	5	29:31 +7:04	73.8%	5.0 −1.6
Melih Tunca	31	22:40	54.9%	243	62	73	22	6	43	33	63–121	52.1%	20–64	31.3%	57–74	77.0%	50.3%	55.8%	40.0%	4	17:58 −4:41	35.9%	5.3 −2.6
Eli Rice	29	19:45	44.7%	195	48	7	18	5	18	44	19–51	37.3%	41–105	39.0%	34–44	77.3%	51.6%	55.6%	28.2%	4	16:14 −3:31	32.5%	0.5 −6.2
Mason Blackwood	26	12:01	24.4%	67	46	6	5	1	8	28	21–28	75.0%†	6–27	22.2%†	7–9	77.8%†	54.5%†	56.8%†	16.4%†	5	17:00 +4:59	42.5%	2.4 −0.2
Sasa Ciani	28	9:58	21.8%	58	53	6	3	5	11	29	20–49	40.8%†	1–5	20.0%†	15–22	68.2%†	39.8%†	45.5%†	40.7%†	5	7:37 −2:21	19.0%	1.2 −0.9
Tibor Mirtic	15	14:05	16.5%	55	50	10	8	1	11	23	24–44	54.5%†	1–3	33.3%†	4–13	30.8%†	54.3%†	52.2%†	27.7%†	—	—	—	—
Justin Houser	18	6:06	8.6%	26	20	3	2	8	6	24	6–12	50.0%†	3–9	33.3%†	5–8	62.5%†	50.0%†	53.0%†	38.1%†	3	5:51 −0:15	8.8%	2.0 +0.6
Chris LotitoFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	4	1:29	0.5%	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	0–0	—	0–0	—	0–0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Team, games with logs · season totals	32 games			2358	927	406	not published	54	337	not published	620–1112	55.8%	221–683	32.4%	455–607	75.0%	53.0%	57.2%	33.8%
Sum of players				2358	839	406	222	54	321	496	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0	+88	0	not published	0	+16	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $3.60M; 80% Range $2.60M to $4.90M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.60M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 1 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Josh Reed	71.0%	$470K	$44K to $925K	13.6%	$470K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kayden Mingo	70.7%	$325K	$27K to $640K	10.1%	$325K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Freddie Dilione V	68.2%	$465K	$38K to $950K	13.5%	$465K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ivan Juric	62.0%	$365K	$35K to $700K	10.9%	$365K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dominick Stewart	56.1%	$365K	$42K to $775K	10.7%	$365K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Melih Tunca	54.3%	$425K	$60K to $870K	11.8%	$425K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Eli Rice	45.3%	$320K	$41K to $690K	9.2%	$320K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mason Blackwood	25.4%	$66K	$20K to $180K	1.7%	$66K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sasa Ciani	21.5%	$165K	$45K to $325K	4.7%	$165K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tibor Mirtic	16.1%	$155K	$71K to $360K	4.2%	$155K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidence
Justin Houser	9.0%	$61K	$24K to $110K	1.9%	$61K in all four	$29K	Limited evidence
Chris Lotito	0.5%	$29K	$16K to $47K	0.8%	$29K in all four	$29K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.60M	$2.60M to $4.90M	100%	$3.60M in all four	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Pennsylvania State University-Main Campus (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$15,174,250
Men's basketball expenses	$14,434,548
Athletics department expenses	$231,709,762
Athletics department revenue	$254,397,122

Team Totalsβ

Season totals, 32 games, 2,159 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	2,358	2,539
Field goals made	841	920
Field goals attempted	1,795	1,840
3-pointers made	221	310
3-pointers attempted	683	799
Free throws made	455	389
Free throws attempted	607	506
Offensive rebounds	266	299
Defensive rebounds	661	760
Total rebounds	927	1,059
Assists	406	556
Blocks	54	109
Turnovers	337	382
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 222.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 496.
Minutes (derived)	6,400	not published

32 of 32 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,358	2,358	0	±11.8	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	841	841	0	±4.2	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,795	1,795	0	±9.0	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	221	221	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	683	683	0	±3.4	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	455	455	0	±2.3	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	607	607	0	±3.0	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	927	839	+88	±74.2	0
Assists	Reconciled	406	406	0	±2.0	0
Blocks	Reconciled	54	54	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	337	321	+16	±10.1	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	222	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	496	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	6,400	6,375	+25.4	±128.0	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Josh Reed	71.0%	-0.1range -1.5 to +1.3Sufficient evidence
Kayden Mingo	70.7%	-1.0range -2.5 to +0.5Sufficient evidence
Freddie Dilione V	68.2%	-0.0range -1.7 to +1.8Sufficient evidence
Ivan Juric	62.0%	-0.4range -1.9 to +1.1Sufficient evidence
Dominick Stewart	56.1%	-0.1range -1.4 to +1.2Sufficient evidence
Melih Tunca	54.3%	+0.3range -1.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence
Eli Rice	45.3%	+0.0range -1.6 to +1.5Sufficient evidence
Mason Blackwood	25.4%	-2.1range -2.9 to -1.2Sufficient evidence
Sasa Ciani	21.5%	+0.1range -1.1 to +1.2Sufficient evidence
Tibor Mirtic	16.1%	+0.5range -0.8 to +1.5Sufficient evidence
Justin Houser	9.0%	-0.9range -1.7 to -0.3Limited evidence
Chris Lotito	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +9.2range +8.2 to +10.3Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

11 valued players hold 99.9% of on-court time. 1 without a value (under 300 possessions) holds 0.1%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 1.8%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value