Penn St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Penn St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Josh Reed	71.0%	-0.1range -1.5 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.1 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$470KspeculativeLoading	$44K to $925KLoading
Kayden Mingo	70.7%	-1.0range -2.5 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+3.3range +2.7 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$325KspeculativeLoading	$27K to $640KLoading
Freddie Dilione V	68.2%	-0.0range -1.7 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+3.5range +2.9 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$465KspeculativeLoading	$38K to $950KLoading
Ivan Juric	62.0%	-0.4range -1.9 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.6 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	$365KspeculativeLoading	$35K to $700KLoading
Dominick Stewart	56.1%	-0.1range -1.4 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.5 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	$365KspeculativeLoading	$42K to $775KLoading
Melih Tunca	54.3%	+0.3range -1.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.5 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	$425KspeculativeLoading	$60K to $870KLoading
Eli Rice	45.3%	+0.0range -1.6 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.0 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$320KspeculativeLoading	$41K to $690KLoading
Mason Blackwood	25.4%	-2.1range -2.9 to -1.2Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$66KspeculativeLoading	$20K to $180KLoading
Sasa Ciani	21.5%	+0.1range -1.1 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.0 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$165KspeculativeLoading	$45K to $325KLoading
Tibor Mirtic	16.1%	+0.5range -0.8 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$155KspeculativeLoading	$71K to $360KLoading
Justin Houser	9.0%	-0.9range -1.7 to -0.3Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence	$61KspeculativeLoading	$24K to $110KLoading
Chris Lotito	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$29Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$16K to $47KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.60M; 80% Range $2.60M to $4.90M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.60M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 1 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Josh Reed	71.0%	$470K	$44K to $925K	13.6%	$470K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kayden Mingo	70.7%	$325K	$27K to $640K	10.1%	$325K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Freddie Dilione V	68.2%	$465K	$38K to $950K	13.5%	$465K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ivan Juric	62.0%	$365K	$35K to $700K	10.9%	$365K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dominick Stewart	56.1%	$365K	$42K to $775K	10.7%	$365K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Melih Tunca	54.3%	$425K	$60K to $870K	11.8%	$425K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Eli Rice	45.3%	$320K	$41K to $690K	9.2%	$320K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mason Blackwood	25.4%	$66K	$20K to $180K	1.7%	$66K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sasa Ciani	21.5%	$165K	$45K to $325K	4.7%	$165K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tibor Mirtic	16.1%	$155K	$71K to $360K	4.2%	$155K in all four	$29K	Sufficient evidence
Justin Houser	9.0%	$61K	$24K to $110K	1.9%	$61K in all four	$29K	Limited evidence
Chris Lotito	0.5%	$29K	$16K to $47K	0.8%	$29K in all four	$29K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.60M	$2.60M to $4.90M	100%	$3.60M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Pennsylvania State University-Main Campus (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$15,174,250
Men's basketball expenses	$14,434,548
Athletics department expenses	$231,709,762
Athletics department revenue	$254,397,122

Coverage and exclusions

31 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$15,174,250	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$14,434,548	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	1
3 or more days	30

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology