Providence

BE · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 148 · Raw net 1.8 · Tempo 72.3 · 33 Division I games · Through 2026-03-12

Record: 15–18; 15 wins
AdjNet: 7.6β; rank 82 of 365
AdjO: 117.7β; rank 40 of 365
AdjD: 110.0β; rank 222 of 365
AdjT: 71.7β
SOS: 6.8β; rank 63 of 363
NCSOS: -0.9β
WAB: -5.8β; rank 123 of 363
RR: -1.6β
Exp. W: 16.6β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	115.060	113.2297	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	55.036	51.4179	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	16.7175	13.1352	16.7
Offensive rebound %	31.7135	30.8196	30.6
FTA / FGA %	36.7138	32.7125	35.0
Shooting
3P%	36.445	35.3264	33.9
2P%	55.351	50.4116	51.7
FT%	75.762	72.1163	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	40.5	38.5	39.5
Assists / FGM %	47.5	54.7	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	9.6	8.7	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	32.1	32.3	31.4
2-pointers %	47.7	49.1	48.8
Free throws %	20.2	18.7	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 9.1
Top Three Share of Minutes: 42%
Bench Share of Minutes: 34%
Players with Logged Minutes: 14

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-03	Holy Cross	W 89–79	77.9	Home	1–0
11-08	Virginia Tech	L 101–107 1OT	89.2	Neutral	1–1
11-11	Penn	W 106–81	79.2	Home	2–1
11-14	Colorado	L 88–97	79.3	Away	2–2
11-18	New Hampshire	W 98–66	69.4	Home	3–2
11-22	Penn St.	W 77–65	70.3	Neutral	4–2
11-27	Wisconsin	L 83–104	81.8	Neutral	4–3
11-28	Florida	L 78–90	73.6	Neutral	4–4
12-02	FDU	W 94–64	65.7	Home	5–4
12-06	Rhode Island	W 90–71	69.8	Home	6–4
12-09	Brown	W 86–79	76.2	Home	7–4
12-13	Butler	L 110–113 2OT	85.8	Away	7–5
12-19	Seton Hall	L 67–72	69.5	Home	7–6
01-03	St. John's (NY)	W 77–71	74.9	Away	8–6
01-07	UConn	L 98–103 1OT	82.7	Home	8–7
01-10	Xavier	L 84–97	80.0	Away	8–8
01-13	Villanova	L 82–88	69.3	Home	8–9
01-16	Creighton	W 93–88	76.2	Home	9–9
01-19	Marquette	L 104–105 1OT	81.5	Away	9–10
01-24	Georgetown	L 78–81	64.6	Home	9–11
01-27	UConn	L 81–87	72.0	Away	9–12
01-30	Villanova	L 73–87	68.6	Away	9–13
02-04	Butler	W 97–87 2OT	78.8	Home	10–13
02-07	DePaul	W 90–72	71.5	Home	11–13
02-11	Seton Hall	L 80–87	68.5	Away	11–14
02-14	St. John's (NY)	L 69–79	75.3	Home	11–15
02-21	DePaul	W 71–68	67.2	Away	12–15
02-25	Xavier	W 94–84	69.5	Home	13–15
02-28	Creighton	W 79–76	67.9	Away	14–15
03-04	Marquette	L 56–78	71.0	Home	14–16
03-07	Georgetown	L 79–80	72.8	Away	14–17
03-11	Butler	W 91–81	72.6	Neutral	15–17
03-12	St. John's (NY)	L 72–85	75.5	Neutral	15–18

Roster · 14 players

Player logs in 33 of 33 team games

Team roster, per game
Column groups	Minutes			Per Game							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Jaylin Sellers	33	29:54	72.8%	18.3	4.2	1.6	0.9	0.2	1.8	2.5	120–237	50.6%	79–184	42.9%	128–149	85.9%	56.7%	62.2%	35.4%	5	34:42 +4:48	86.7%	22.0 +3.7
Stefan Vaaks	31	31:31	72.1%	15.8	2.5	3.2	0.8	0.3	1.9	1.7	62–120	51.7%	91–260	35.0%	94–112	83.9%	52.2%	57.2%	29.5%	4	32:48 +1:17	65.6%	16.5 +0.7
Ryan Mela	33	25:42	62.6%	9.9	5.3	2.0	0.8	0.1	1.6	1.7	103–185	55.7%	18–56	32.1%	66–82	80.5%	53.9%	58.8%	34.0%	5	34:37 +8:56	86.6%	16.8 +6.9
Oswin Erhunmwunse	33	25:08	61.2%	6.9	8.3	0.8	0.3	2.1	1.4	3.3	99–147	67.3%	0–0	—	31–59	52.5%	67.3%	66.2%	40.1%	5	26:50 +1:42	67.1%	4.0 −2.9
Jamier Jones	31	25:51	59.2%	11.9	4.5	1.4	0.9	0.3	1.7	2.3	123–206	59.7%	12–31	38.7%†	87–131	66.4%	59.5%	62.6%	55.3%	5	29:33 +3:41	73.9%	9.6 −2.3
Corey Floyd, Jr.	24	25:23	45.0%	7.6	4.0	2.5	0.6	0.2	1.5	1.5	45–98	45.9%	19–51	37.3%	35–44	79.5%	49.3%	54.1%	29.5%	2	10:22 −15:01	10.4%	1.0 −6.6
Jason Edwards	23	26:28	44.9%	16.5	2.8	3.0	0.8	0.0	1.8	1.7	76–147	51.7%	48–140	34.3%	83–105	79.0%	51.6%	56.9%	36.6%	3	21:57 −4:31	32.9%	9.0 −7.5
Cole Hargrove	29	12:47	27.3%	1.8	2.9	0.5	0.2	0.6	0.5	2.3	18–31	58.1%†	0–4	0.0%†	16–24	66.7%†	51.4%†	57.1%†	68.6%†	5	14:37 +1:51	36.6%	0.6 −1.2
Duncan Powell	22	16:42	27.1%	4.6	3.0	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.7	1.5	12–23	52.2%†	20–65	30.8%	17–28	60.7%	47.7%†	50.3%†	31.8%†	2	6:37 −10:05	6.6%	2.0 −2.6
Nilavan Daniels	20	9:17	13.7%	1.9	1.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	1.7	1–2	50.0%†	10–21	47.6%†	7–9	77.8%†	69.6%†	72.3%†	39.1%†	5	10:38 +1:20	26.6%	2.6 +0.7
Peteris PinnisUnder 100 minutes	18	4:08	5.5%	0.8	1.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.4	0.8	7–13	53.8%†	0–0	—	1–3	33.3%†	53.8%†	52.4%†	23.1%†	4	2:00 −2:09	4.0%	0.0 −0.8
Jaylen HarrellFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	6	9:04	4.0%	3.7	0.7	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.3	5–5	100.0%†	3–11	27.3%†	3–3	100.0%†	59.4%†	63.5%†	18.8%†	—	—	—	—
Daquan DavisFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	3	9:04	2.0%	0.7	0.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	1.7	1–2	50.0%†	0–2	0.0%†	0–1	0.0%†	25.0%†	22.5%†	25.0%†	—	—	—	—
Jack WilliamsFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	7	1:30	0.8%	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0–0	—	1–3	33.3%†	0–0	—	50.0%†	50.0%†	0.0%†	2	0:55 −0:36	0.9%	0.0 −0.4
Team, games with logs · per game	33 games			85.3	38.5	14.0	not published	3.9	12.4	not published	672–1216	55.3%	301–828	36.4%	568–750	75.7%	55.0%	59.3%	36.7%
Sum of players				85.3	35.2	14.0	5.4	3.9	11.8	18.4	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0.0	+3.3	0.0	not published	0.0	+0.6	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $3.50M; 80% Range $1.95M to $6.10M
Tier: Big East and Gonzaga; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.15M to $3.65M; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Stefan Vaaks	72.6%	$530K	$215K to $1.05M	15.2%	$475K to $555K	$24K	Sufficient evidence
Jaylin Sellers	72.5%	$300K	$46K to $670K	10.1%	$270K to $315K	$24K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ryan Mela	64.1%	$365K	$88K to $775K	11.2%	$325K to $380K	$24K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Oswin Erhunmwunse	61.1%	$575K	$270K to $1.20M	15.5%	$515K to $600K	$24K	Sufficient evidence
Jamier Jones	59.1%	$440K	$190K to $930K	12.6%	$395K to $465K	$24K	Sufficient evidence
Corey Floyd, Jr.	45.6%	$245K	$61K to $505K	7.6%	$215K to $255K	$24K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jason Edwards	44.9%	$410K	$195K to $865K	10.9%	$365K to $425K	$24K	Sufficient evidence
Cole Hargrove	27.2%	$140K	$34K to $295K	4.5%	$125K to $145K	$24K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Duncan Powell	26.6%	$71K	$17K to $205K	2.4%	$64K to $75K	$24K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Nilavan Daniels	13.7%	$120K	$56K to $230K	3.4%	$105K to $125K	$24K	Sufficient evidence
Peteris Pinnis	5.6%	$24K	$12K to $47K	0.7%	$21K to $25K	$24K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Jaylen Harrell	4.1%	$24K	$12K to $47K	0.7%	$21K to $25K	$24K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Daquan Davis	2.2%	$24K	$12K to $47K	0.7%	$21K to $25K	$24K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Jack Williams	0.8%	$24K	$12K to $47K	0.7%	$21K to $25K	$24K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.50M	$1.95M to $6.10M	100%	$3.15M to $3.65M	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Providence College (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$12,518,606	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$12,518,606
Athletics department expenses	$58,732,216
Athletics department revenue	$58,732,216

Team Totalsβ

Season per game, 33 games, 2,448 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	85.3	84.0
Field goals made	29.5	29.6
Field goals attempted	61.9	66.5
3-pointers made	9.1	9.0
3-pointers attempted	25.1	25.6
Free throws made	17.2	15.7
Free throws attempted	22.7	21.8
Offensive rebounds	11.0	12.3
Defensive rebounds	27.5	23.7
Total rebounds	38.5	35.9
Assists	14.0	16.2
Blocks	3.9	3.2
Turnovers	12.4	9.7
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 177.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 607.
Minutes (derived)	205.3	not published

33 of 33 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,815	2,815	0	±14.1	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	973	973	0	±4.9	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	2,044	2,044	0	±10.2	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	301	301	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	828	828	0	±4.1	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	568	568	0	±2.8	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	750	750	0	±3.8	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	1,271	1,163	+108	±101.7	0
Assists	Reconciled	462	462	0	±2.3	0
Blocks	Reconciled	129	129	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	408	388	+20	±12.2	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	177	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	607	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	6,775	6,751	+24.3	±135.5	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Stefan Vaaks	72.6%	+1.9range +0.6 to +3.1Sufficient evidence
Jaylin Sellers	72.5%	+0.2range -1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence
Ryan Mela	64.1%	+1.0range -0.5 to +2.5Sufficient evidence
Oswin Erhunmwunse	61.1%	+2.6range +1.2 to +4.0Sufficient evidence
Jamier Jones	59.1%	+2.0range +0.5 to +3.3Sufficient evidence
Corey Floyd, Jr.	45.6%	+0.7range -0.5 to +1.9Sufficient evidence
Jason Edwards	44.9%	+2.4range +1.2 to +3.7Sufficient evidence
Cole Hargrove	27.2%	+0.4range -0.9 to +1.6Sufficient evidence
Duncan Powell	26.6%	-1.1range -2.5 to -0.0Sufficient evidence
Nilavan Daniels	13.7%	+1.8range +0.8 to +2.6Sufficient evidence
Peteris Pinnis	5.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Jaylen Harrell	4.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Daquan Davis	2.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Jack Williams	0.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +10.5range +9.7 to +11.4Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

10 valued players hold 97.5% of on-court time. 4 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 2.5%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 0.0%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value