Jacksonville St.

CUSA · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 198 · Raw net -1.0 · Tempo 65.7 · 29 Division I games · Through 2026-03-10

Record: 12–17; 12 wins
AdjNet: -2.3β; rank 211 of 365
AdjO: 105.2β; rank 245 of 365
AdjD: 107.4β; rank 154 of 365
AdjT: 66.4β
SOS: -1.9β; rank 223 of 363
NCSOS: -4.3β
WAB: -11.5β; rank 249 of 363
RR: -2.2β
Exp. W: 14.2β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	105.5241	106.4117	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	49.7252	49.685	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	17.0206	16.2207	16.7
Offensive rebound %	29.8207	28.066	30.6
FTA / FGA %	43.121	38.7280	35.0
Shooting
3P%	35.775	33.3140	33.9
2P%	47.4327	49.373	51.7
FT%	68.4314	75.4329	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	38.1	42.9	39.5
Assists / FGM %	49.6	51.3	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	9.5	9.7	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	31.7	33.4	31.4
2-pointers %	45.5	43.9	48.8
Free throws %	22.9	22.7	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 8.5
Top Three Share of Minutes: 44%
Bench Share of Minutes: 32%
Players with Logged Minutes: 14

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-14	Coastal Carolina	W 74–67	67.3	Home	1–0
11-19	South Alabama	L 65–71	66.2	Home	1–1
11-24	Arkansas St.	L 63–74	72.8	Away	1–2
11-26	North Dakota St.	L 43–56	62.0	Neutral	1–3
12-01	North Ala.	L 66–73	66.0	Home	1–4
12-13	Georgia St.	L 73–77	65.8	Away	1–5
12-17	Eastern Ky.	L 59–62	63.3	Home	1–6
12-20	ETSU	W 81–75	61.8	Away	2–6
12-29	Western Ky.	W 78–67	68.8	Home	3–6
01-02	Delaware	W 67–64	60.1	Away	4–6
01-04	Liberty	L 69–78	63.7	Away	4–7
01-07	FIU	W 71–64	64.8	Home	5–7
01-10	Kennesaw St.	L 82–88	72.5	Away	5–8
01-14	Sam Houston	L 62–77	62.2	Home	5–9
01-17	Louisiana Tech	W 64–60	58.4	Home	6–9
01-23	Middle Tenn.	W 75–58	60.8	Home	7–9
01-28	FIU	W 78–74	79.8	Away	8–9
01-31	Missouri St.	L 67–74	68.4	Away	8–10
02-05	Western Ky.	W 71–66	71.6	Away	9–10
02-07	Kennesaw St.	W 77–58	66.2	Home	10–10
02-11	UTEP	L 64–69	59.8	Home	10–11
02-14	New Mexico St.	L 70–79	65.9	Home	10–12
02-18	Louisiana Tech	L 71–77	70.2	Away	10–13
02-21	Sam Houston	L 78–82	67.4	Away	10–14
02-26	Delaware	W 80–70 1OT	66.8	Home	11–14
02-28	Liberty	L 78–81	63.5	Home	11–15
03-05	New Mexico St.	L 75–77 1OT	75.9	Away	11–16
03-07	UTEP	W 64–61	67.0	Away	12–16
03-10	New Mexico St.	L 63–68	64.2	Neutral	12–17

Roster · 14 players

Player logs in 29 of 29 team games

Team roster, season totals
Column groups	Minutes			Season Totals							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Jacoby Hill	29	31:09	77.2%	293	111	47	28	1	41	68	85–152	55.9%	17–52	32.7%	72–102	70.6%	54.2%	58.9%	50.0%	5	35:16 +4:06	84.0%	15.8 +5.7
Mostapha El Moutaouakkil	29	30:25	75.4%	559	202	34	26	8	86	80	146–313	46.6%	34–99	34.3%	165–249	66.3%	47.8%	53.6%	60.4%	5	32:56 +2:31	78.4%	22.2 +2.9
AC Bryant	28	28:39	68.6%	332	110	26	28	2	21	54	28–68	41.2%	81–203	39.9%	33–49	67.3%	55.2%	56.7%	18.1%	4	16:31 −12:08	31.5%	6.0 −5.9
Jaye Nash	29	26:12	64.9%	150	84	118	29	2	55	62	27–93	29.0%	8–32	25.0%†	72–102	70.6%	31.2%	44.1%	81.6%	5	31:43 +5:31	75.5%	3.2 −2.0
Emondrek Erkins-Ford	29	22:02	54.6%	250	105	28	13	27	25	67	84–152	55.3%	8–24	33.3%†	58–89	65.2%	54.5%	58.1%	50.6%	5	26:24 +4:22	62.8%	8.2 −0.4
Iaroslav Niagu	29	20:38	51.1%	123	149	33	10	36	31	59	44–90	48.9%†	0–0	—	35–47	74.5%	48.9%†	55.6%†	52.2%†	5	21:10 +0:32	50.4%	4.0 −0.2
Marcus Fitzgerald Jr.	27	18:35	42.9%	126	42	26	17	2	19	39	16–34	47.1%	27–78	34.6%	13–16	81.3%†	50.4%	52.9%	14.3%	5	16:39 −1:57	39.6%	3.4 −1.3
Jamar Franklin	23	15:33	30.6%	119	32	7	9	1	8	20	6–19	31.6%	34–92	37.0%	5–8	62.5%†	51.4%	52.0%	7.2%	5	25:50 +10:18	61.5%	10.0 +4.8
Toby Nnadozie	21	7:26	13.3%	23	21	7	5	0	7	24	8–22	36.4%†	1–8	12.5%†	4–6	66.7%†	31.7%†	35.2%†	20.0%†	4	3:57 −3:29	7.5%	0.5 −0.6
Aitor AnabitarteUnder 100 minutes	14	6:32	7.8%	18	21	3	3	1	2	10	7–12	58.3%†	0–0	—	4–6	66.7%†	58.3%†	61.5%†	50.0%†	2	8:04 +1:32	7.7%	0.0 −1.3
Thomas TutUnder 100 minutes	11	6:09	5.8%	18	11	3	0	4	3	11	3–10	30.0%†	3–5	60.0%†	3–4	75.0%†	50.0%†	53.7%†	26.7%†	—	—	—	—
Bencao VungoFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	5	12:37	5.4%	17	18	2	0	2	2	6	7–8	87.5%†	1–6	16.7%†	0–0	—	60.7%†	60.7%†	0.0%†	—	—	—	—
Connor LoyFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	4	3:11	1.1%	0	2	1	1	0	1	1	0–0	—	0–1	0.0%†	0–0	—	0.0%†	0.0%†	0.0%†	1	0:29 −2:42	0.2%	0.0 0.0
Aidan DriggersFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	4	0:33	0.2%	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0–0	—	0–0	—	0–0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Team, games with logs · season totals	29 games			2028	1009	335	not published	86	327	not published	461–973	47.4%	214–600	35.7%	464–678	68.4%	49.7%	54.2%	43.1%
Sum of players				2028	909	335	169	86	301	502	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0	+100	0	not published	0	+26	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $270K; 80% Range $95K to $730K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $235K to $285K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Jacoby Hill	77.2%	$36K	$8K to $105K	14.7%	$31K to $37K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mostapha El Moutaouakkil	75.5%	$22K	$2K to $79K	11.0%	$18K to $23K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
AC Bryant	69.0%	$30K	$6K to $97K	12.9%	$27K to $32K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaye Nash	64.9%	$27K	$4K to $88K	11.5%	$23K to $28K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Emondrek Erkins-Ford	54.4%	$34K	$8K to $115K	12.2%	$30K to $36K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Iaroslav Niagu	51.0%	$39K	$11K to $135K	13.1%	$33K to $41K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Marcus Fitzgerald Jr.	42.9%	$14K	$2K to $48K	6.6%	$12K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jamar Franklin	30.9%	$20K	$5K to $66K	7.1%	$17K to $21K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Toby Nnadozie	13.4%	$4K	$1K to $13K	1.3%	$3K to $4K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aitor Anabitarte	8.0%	$9K	$3K to $28K	2.9%	$7K to $9K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Thomas Tut	6.0%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Bencao Vungo	5.6%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Connor Loy	1.0%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Aidan Driggers	0.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$270K	$95K to $730K	100%	$235K to $285K	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Jacksonville State University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,338,777	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,338,777
Athletics department expenses	$34,639,572
Athletics department revenue	$34,639,572

Team Totalsβ

Season totals, 29 games, 1,923 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	2,028	2,047
Field goals made	675	677
Field goals attempted	1,573	1,594
3-pointers made	214	228
3-pointers attempted	600	684
Free throws made	464	465
Free throws attempted	678	617
Offensive rebounds	298	277
Defensive rebounds	711	701
Total rebounds	1,009	978
Assists	335	347
Blocks	86	94
Turnovers	327	312
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 169.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 502.
Minutes (derived)	5,850	not published

29 of 29 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,028	2,028	0	±10.1	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	675	675	0	±3.4	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,573	1,573	0	±7.9	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	214	214	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	600	600	0	±3.0	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	464	464	0	±2.3	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	678	678	0	±3.4	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	1,009	909	+100	±80.7	0
Assists	Reconciled	335	335	0	±2.0	0
Blocks	Reconciled	86	86	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	327	301	+26	±9.8	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	169	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	502	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	5,850	5,837	+12.7	±117.0	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Jacoby Hill	77.2%	+0.4range -0.6 to +1.3Sufficient evidence
Mostapha El Moutaouakkil	75.5%	-0.5range -1.7 to +0.8Sufficient evidence
AC Bryant	69.0%	+0.2range -0.7 to +1.4Sufficient evidence
Jaye Nash	64.9%	+0.1range -1.2 to +1.4Sufficient evidence
Emondrek Erkins-Ford	54.4%	+1.1range -0.4 to +2.3Sufficient evidence
Iaroslav Niagu	51.0%	+1.4range +0.2 to +3.1Sufficient evidence
Marcus Fitzgerald Jr.	42.9%	-0.5range -1.4 to +0.8Sufficient evidence
Jamar Franklin	30.9%	+1.1range -0.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence
Toby Nnadozie	13.4%	-1.9range -2.9 to -1.0Limited evidence
Aitor Anabitarte	8.0%	+1.9range +1.2 to +2.4Limited evidence
Thomas Tut	6.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Bencao Vungo	5.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Connor Loy	1.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Aidan Driggers	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +9.5range +8.8 to +10.4Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

10 valued players hold 97.4% of on-court time. 4 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 2.6%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 4.3%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value