Jacksonville St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Jacksonville St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Jacoby Hill	77.2%	+0.4range -0.6 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+5.2range +4.6 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$36KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $105KLoading
Mostapha El Moutaouakkil	75.5%	-0.5range -1.7 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+4.6range +4.0 to +5.4Sufficient evidence	$22KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $79KLoading
AC Bryant	69.0%	+0.2range -0.7 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+4.6range +4.0 to +5.2Sufficient evidence	$30KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $97KLoading
Jaye Nash	64.9%	+0.1range -1.2 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+4.3range +3.6 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	$27KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $88KLoading
Emondrek Erkins-Ford	54.4%	+1.1range -0.4 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+4.0range +3.4 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	$34KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $115KLoading
Iaroslav Niagu	51.0%	+1.4range +0.2 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+3.8range +3.4 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	$39KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $135KLoading
Marcus Fitzgerald Jr.	42.9%	-0.5range -1.4 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.4 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$14KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $48KLoading
Jamar Franklin	30.9%	+1.1range -0.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+2.3range +2.0 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	$20KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $66KLoading
Toby Nnadozie	13.4%	-1.9range -2.9 to -1.0Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $13KLoading
Aitor Anabitarte	8.0%	+1.9range +1.2 to +2.4Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.6 to +0.7Limited evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $28KLoading
Thomas Tut	6.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Bencao Vungo	5.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Connor Loy	1.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Aidan Driggers	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $270K; 80% Range $95K to $730K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $235K to $285K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Jacoby Hill	77.2%	$36K	$8K to $105K	14.7%	$31K to $37K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mostapha El Moutaouakkil	75.5%	$22K	$2K to $79K	11.0%	$18K to $23K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
AC Bryant	69.0%	$30K	$6K to $97K	12.9%	$27K to $32K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaye Nash	64.9%	$27K	$4K to $88K	11.5%	$23K to $28K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Emondrek Erkins-Ford	54.4%	$34K	$8K to $115K	12.2%	$30K to $36K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Iaroslav Niagu	51.0%	$39K	$11K to $135K	13.1%	$33K to $41K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Marcus Fitzgerald Jr.	42.9%	$14K	$2K to $48K	6.6%	$12K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jamar Franklin	30.9%	$20K	$5K to $66K	7.1%	$17K to $21K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Toby Nnadozie	13.4%	$4K	$1K to $13K	1.3%	$3K to $4K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aitor Anabitarte	8.0%	$9K	$3K to $28K	2.9%	$7K to $9K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Thomas Tut	6.0%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Bencao Vungo	5.6%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Connor Loy	1.0%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Aidan Driggers	0.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$270K	$95K to $730K	100%	$235K to $285K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Jacksonville State University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,338,777	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,338,777
Athletics department expenses	$34,639,572
Athletics department revenue	$34,639,572

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 29 games passed lineup acceptance (100%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

No exclusions were recorded.

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,338,777	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,338,777	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	5
3 or more days	23

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	2
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology