Algosys College Basketball

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Arkansas St.

SB · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 96 · Raw net 5.1 · Tempo 72.5 · 30 Division I games · Through 2026-03-05

All seasons
Record
18–12
18 wins
AdjNet
2.5β
rank 136 of 365
AdjO
110.2β
rank 129 of 365
AdjD
107.7β
rank 162 of 365
AdjT
72.3β
SOS
-2.2β
rank 235 of 363
NCSOS
3.6β
WAB
-6.2β
rank 134 of 363
RR
-0.6β
Exp. W
18.6β

Scouting Report

CategoryOffenseDefenseD-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.111.4112106.3111108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%51.716450.311651.4
TO / 100 poss.19.834514.929916.7
Offensive rebound %38.2627.03530.6
FTA / FGA %39.17737.023735.0
Shooting
3P%32.924132.911533.9
2P%53.610050.813151.7
FT%73.316270.67672.5
Style
3PA / FGA %44.938.839.5
Assists / FGM %55.851.452.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %7.310.39.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %33.530.231.4
2-pointers %44.849.148.8
Free throws %21.720.619.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size
9.5
Top Three Share of Minutes
40%
Bench Share of Minutes
38%
Players with Logged Minutes
11

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

DateOpponentResultPoss.SiteRecord
11-03OhioW 89–8575.4Away1–0
11-07SFAL 65–9073.8Away1–1
11-11Missouri St.W 86–8579.7Away2–1
11-19Saint Mary's (CA)L 72–8568.9Away2–2
11-21SMUL 69–10080.1Away2–3
11-24Jacksonville St.W 74–6372.8Home3–3
11-28North Dakota St.W 85–80 1OT78.6Home4–3
12-02UT ArlingtonW 83–6372.6Home5–3
12-06Little RockW 90–7871.7Away6–3
12-13RiceL 76–7769.0Away6–4
12-17Texas St.W 89–7072.5Away7–4
12-20Southern Miss.W 93–8671.8Away8–4
01-03James MadisonL 74–7871.1Home8–5
01-07TroyW 86–7475.2Home9–5
01-10Texas St.W 83–8277.6Home10–5
01-15South AlabamaL 87–91 1OT82.2Away10–6
01-17TroyL 74–9966.7Away10–7
01-22Ga. SouthernW 85–6874.6Away11–7
01-24Georgia St.L 81–8267.2Away11–8
01-28Old DominionL 71–7572.4Home11–9
01-31MarshallL 61–7063.5Home11–10
02-04Coastal CarolinaW 70–6670.0Away12–10
02-07Bowling GreenW 91–5475.2Home13–10
02-11ULMW 103–7074.0Home14–10
02-14South AlabamaL 88–92 1OT76.3Home14–11
02-19LouisianaW 79–6268.8Away15–11
02-21ULMW 102–9477.8Away16–11
02-24Southern Miss.W 89–8478.9Home17–11
02-27LouisianaW 81–5875.7Home18–11
03-05Ga. SouthernL 77–8068.7Neutral18–12

Roster · 11 players

Player logs in 30 of 30 team games

MinutesPer GameShootingLast Five Team Games
PlayerGMPGTeam Min%PtsRebAstStlBlkTOPF2P2P%3P3P%FTFT%eFG%TS%FTA/FGAGMPGMin%Pts/G
Christian Harmon3027:5168.7%13.23.72.40.90.12.11.441–7852.6%81–23035.2%70–8681.4%52.8%57.1%27.9%529:52 +2:0274.7%10.4 −2.8
Chandler Jackson3027:1767.4%11.23.54.51.10.12.22.399–17755.9%13–4827.1%†98–13970.5%52.7%58.5%61.8%526:51 −0:2667.1%13.6 +2.4
Jalen Hampton2926:1862.8%8.39.11.61.00.41.71.983–13959.7%10–3033.3%†45–5976.3%58.0%61.8%34.9%530:40 +4:2376.7%10.8 +2.5
Jaxon Ellingsworth3022:2055.1%9.24.80.70.70.21.32.461–11453.5%30–9232.6%65–8576.5%51.5%56.9%41.3%520:44 −1:3651.8%11.0 +1.8
Matt Hayman2922:4654.3%11.43.22.11.00.11.92.468–13650.0%54–17031.8%32–4080.0%48.7%51.0%13.1%523:16 +0:3158.2%12.0 +0.6
TJ Caldwell3019:4848.9%9.02.61.00.80.31.22.041–9543.2%41–12433.1%65–7982.3%46.8%53.2%36.1%520:15 +0:2750.6%9.2 +0.2
Aly Tounkara3018:0144.5%4.05.50.50.41.11.02.555–9160.4%†0–0—11–3036.7%60.4%†58.1%†33.0%†527:13 +9:1168.0%7.0 +3.0
Chudi Dioramma2415:2030.3%4.84.10.70.20.50.82.041–8548.2%†0–0—33–5066.0%48.2%†53.7%†58.8%†————
Joey Chammaa2016:5527.9%9.72.31.80.80.11.61.324–4553.3%†17–5332.1%95–11880.5%50.5%†64.7%†120.4%†516:37 −0:1941.5%10.4 +0.7
Royal Blue Smith2512:4326.2%4.81.51.00.70.01.11.622–3857.9%21–6432.8%14–2850.0%52.5%52.9%27.5%28:26 −4:178.4%3.0 −1.8
Fredy-Salam Sylla169:2412.4%3.41.80.30.30.00.60.814–2653.8%†7–2330.4%†5–1338.5%†50.0%†49.3%†26.5%†12:11 −7:131.1%0.0 −3.4
Team, games with logs · per game30 games81.841.815.32.814.6549–102453.6%274–83432.9%533–72773.3%51.7%56.3%39.1%
Sum of players81.839.015.37.22.814.119.0Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players0.0+2.80.00.0+0.5

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool
$280K
80% Range $100K to $745K
Tier
Low and other
low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4
$270K to $290K
Scenario medians
Players with Figures
11
Players in possession-share order
PlayerPoss. ShareSpeculative Best Guess80% RangeRange GraphicMedian % of Team PoolScenarios Z1 to Z4Floor PartEvidence and Flags
Chandler Jackson69.3%$68K$23K to $200K23.0%$65K to $71K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Christian Harmon68.7%$49K$16K to $135K16.6%$46K to $50K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jalen Hampton62.9%$34K$10K to $100K12.9%$33K to $36K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaxon Ellingsworth55.6%$16K$3K to $58K7.4%$15K to $17K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matt Hayman54.3%$18K$3K to $60K8.1%$17K to $18K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
TJ Caldwell48.3%$8K$1K to $35K3.5%$7K to $8K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aly Tounkara43.7%$33K$11K to $95K11.2%$32K to $34K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chudi Dioramma31.1%$11K$2K to $37K4.8%$10K to $11K$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Royal Blue Smith27.0%$8K$2K to $28K3.6%$8K in all four$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Joey Chammaa26.2%$8K$2K to $28K3.6%$8K in all four$2KSufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Fredy-Salam Sylla13.0%$4K$1K to $14K1.7%$4K in all four$2KLimited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool—$280K$100K to $745K100%$270K to $290K—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Arkansas State University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
MeasureSchool-Reported AmountNote
Men's basketball revenue$3,024,737Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses$3,024,737
Athletics department expenses$33,754,642
Athletics department revenue$33,754,642

Team Totalsβ

Season per game, 30 games, 2,203 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

StatisticTeamOpponents
Points81.878.0
Field goals made27.427.0
Field goals attempted61.961.6
3-pointers made9.17.9
3-pointers attempted27.823.9
Free throws made17.816.1
Free throws attempted24.222.8
Offensive rebounds14.410.1
Defensive rebounds27.423.3
Total rebounds41.833.4
Assists15.313.9
Blocks2.83.5
Turnovers14.610.9
StealsNo team figure. Players sum to 215.
Personal foulsNo team figure. Players sum to 569.
Minutes (derived)202.5

30 of 30 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

StatisticStatusTeam Total, Logged GamesSum of PlayersResidualToleranceTeam Total, Games Without Logs
PointsReconciled2,4532,4530±12.30
Field goals madeReconciled8238230±4.10
Field goals attemptedReconciled1,8581,8580±9.30
3-pointers madeReconciled2742740±2.00
3-pointers attemptedReconciled8348340±4.20
Free throws madeReconciled5335330±2.70
Free throws attemptedReconciled7277270±3.60
Offensive reboundsNo player split
Defensive reboundsNo player split
Total reboundsReconciled1,2541,171+83±100.30
AssistsReconciled4594590±2.30
BlocksReconciled83830±2.00
TurnoversResidual shown437423+14±13.10
StealsNo team figure215
Personal foulsNo team figure569
Minutes (derived)Reconciled6,0756,055+19.6±121.50

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
PlayerPoss. ShareNet and RangeβRange Graphic
Chandler Jackson69.3%+3.5range +2.4 to +4.7Sufficient evidence
Christian Harmon68.7%+2.4range +1.2 to +3.9Sufficient evidence
Jalen Hampton62.9%+1.5range +0.4 to +2.8Sufficient evidence
Jaxon Ellingsworth55.6%-0.1range -1.5 to +1.4Sufficient evidence
Matt Hayman54.3%+0.3range -0.8 to +1.4Sufficient evidence
TJ Caldwell48.3%-1.4range -2.6 to -0.3Sufficient evidence
Aly Tounkara43.7%+2.6range +1.5 to +4.0Sufficient evidence
Chudi Dioramma31.1%+0.1range -1.4 to +1.6Sufficient evidence
Royal Blue Smith27.0%-0.6range -1.7 to +0.8Sufficient evidence
Joey Chammaa26.2%-0.4range -1.6 to +1.0Sufficient evidence
Fredy-Salam Sylla13.0%-1.2range -2.1 to -0.1Limited evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions
+10.5range +9.7 to +11.4Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

11 valued players hold 100.0% of on-court time. 0 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 0.0%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 2.6%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value