CSUN

BW · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 195 · Raw net -0.9 · Tempo 75.3 · 32 Division I games · Through 2026-03-13

Record: 18–14; 18 wins
AdjNet: -1.7β; rank 201 of 365
AdjO: 107.3β; rank 195 of 365
AdjD: 109.1β; rank 199 of 365
AdjT: 73.7β
SOS: -1.0β; rank 197 of 363
NCSOS: 0.7β
WAB: -7.4β; rank 166 of 363
RR: 2.5β
Exp. W: 15.5β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	106.6214	107.5147	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	51.3184	51.6193	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	17.5239	16.4191	16.7
Offensive rebound %	31.9130	26.627	30.6
FTA / FGA %	34.2200	34.3160	35.0
Shooting
3P%	32.4260	34.4210	33.9
2P%	52.6147	51.7176	51.7
FT%	66.8345	75.8340	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	33.6	48.6	39.5
Assists / FGM %	56.5	58.0	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	8.8	10.1	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	26.0	38.7	31.4
2-pointers %	55.7	41.1	48.8
Free throws %	18.2	20.1	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 7.9
Top Three Share of Minutes: 49%
Bench Share of Minutes: 27%
Players with Logged Minutes: 13

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-06	UNI	L 57–86	71.8	Away	0–1
11-09	North Dakota	W 93–85	75.8	Away	1–1
11-11	North Dakota St.	L 68–90	80.5	Away	1–2
11-16	Troy	W 94–85	73.0	Home	2–2
11-26	Idaho	L 64–78	73.3	Neutral	2–3
11-28	Idaho St.	L 50–82	75.5	Neutral	2–4
12-04	CSU Bakersfield	W 87–66	74.1	Home	3–4
12-06	UC Irvine	L 71–85	69.8	Away	3–5
12-10	Fresno St.	W 89–87	71.6	Home	4–5
12-13	Delaware	W 88–66	67.6	Away	5–5
12-22	Sacramento St.	W 100–88	82.5	Home	6–5
12-27	Stanford	L 80–88	75.2	Away	6–6
01-01	UC Davis	L 80–89	76.4	Away	6–7
01-03	UC Santa Barbara	W 74–65	73.0	Home	7–7
01-08	Cal Poly	W 95–90	80.9	Home	8–7
01-10	Cal St. Fullerton	L 79–86	77.9	Away	8–8
01-15	UC San Diego	W 84–79	72.4	Away	9–8
01-17	Long Beach St.	L 80–87	79.0	Home	9–9
01-25	Hawaii	L 68–89	77.4	—	9–10
01-29	UC Davis	W 94–78	79.9	Home	10–10
01-31	UC San Diego	W 81–64	75.2	Home	11–10
02-05	Cal Poly	W 97–96	79.7	Away	12–10
02-07	UC Riverside	W 88–74	72.8	Home	13–10
02-14	Hawaii	W 84–60	71.7	Home	14–10
02-19	UC Santa Barbara	W 85–83 1OT	83.2	Away	15–10
02-21	Long Beach St.	W 78–76	71.8	Away	16–10
02-26	UC Irvine	L 67–68	73.1	Home	16–11
02-28	UC Riverside	L 84–95	79.4	Away	16–12
03-05	CSU Bakersfield	W 86–84	79.5	Away	17–12
03-07	Cal St. Fullerton	L 77–90	82.7	Home	17–13
03-12	UC San Diego	W 80–70	72.6	Neutral	18–13
03-13	UC Irvine	L 78–93	70.6	Neutral	18–14

Roster · 13 players

Player logs in 32 of 32 team games

Team roster, per 40 minutes
Column groups	Minutes			Per 40 Minutes							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Josiah Davis	32	33:57	84.6%	19.1	5.6	8.9	1.3	0.4	5.7	3.1	182–375	48.5%	4–31	12.9%†	142–203	70.0%	46.3%	52.3%	50.0%	5	35:05 +1:08	87.7%	22.6 +6.4
Joshua O'Garro	31	33:54	81.8%	17.4	10.5	3.2	1.3	0.7	3.0	2.4	145–263	55.1%	35–113	31.0%	63–108	58.3%	52.5%	54.1%	28.7%	5	33:23 −0:31	83.5%	17.8 +3.0
Larry Hughes II	31	31:58	77.1%	22.4	3.6	1.1	1.9	0.3	1.8	3.7	85–186	45.7%	94–237	39.7%	104–121	86.0%	53.4%	58.4%	28.6%	5	36:40 +4:43	91.7%	15.8 −2.1
Mahmoud Fofana	32	30:14	75.3%	14.9	10.5	1.9	1.4	1.1	1.4	4.1	145–225	64.4%	1–5	20.0%†	67–109	61.5%	63.7%	64.8%	47.4%	5	32:19 +2:04	80.8%	9.0 −2.3
Jordan Brinson	31	18:24	44.4%	7.4	6.0	3.5	0.6	0.1	1.2	2.3	15–33	45.5%†	20–59	33.9%	15–18	83.3%†	48.9%†	52.5%†	19.6%†	5	18:56 +0:32	47.3%	3.2 −0.2
Davius Loury	31	16:40	40.2%	10.6	4.8	2.0	1.2	0.6	1.9	5.3	18–53	34.0%	27–91	29.7%	20–31	64.5%	40.6%	43.5%	21.5%	5	11:55 −4:45	29.8%	2.4 −2.0
James Evans Jr.	32	14:58	37.3%	15.4	4.6	3.0	1.6	0.5	2.2	3.9	38–95	40.0%	27–81	33.3%	27–45	60.0%	44.6%	47.0%	25.6%	5	10:04 −4:54	25.2%	3.4 −2.4
Grady Lewis	31	9:22	22.6%	16.5	10.2	1.7	0.6	0.7	1.5	8.3	53–79	67.1%†	0–0	—	14–36	38.9%	67.1%†	63.3%†	45.6%†	4	15:55 +6:33	31.8%	6.0 +2.1
Jai Chisolm	31	8:28	20.4%	11.9	4.9	0.8	2.0	0.8	1.2	4.0	18–28	64.3%†	13–59	22.0%	3–6	50.0%†	43.1%†	43.5%†	6.9%†	5	7:06 −1:23	17.7%	1.4 −1.1
Aleks Szymczyk	24	7:14	13.5%	13.6	11.3	1.4	0.7	0.2	2.1	2.3	20–28	71.4%†	2–10	20.0%†	13–25	52.0%	60.5%†	60.2%†	65.8%†	1	3:51 −3:23	1.9%	3.0 +0.5
Greg GazarianFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	7	1:04	0.6%	10.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	21.6	5.4	0–1	0.0%†	0–1	0.0%†	2–2	100.0%†	0.0%†	34.7%†	100.0%†	—	—	—	—
Robert ThibiantFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	6	0:59	0.5%	20.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.8	6.8	0–1	0.0%†	1–4	25.0%†	0–0	—	30.0%†	30.0%†	0.0%†	—	—	—	—
Joseph BarrioFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	3	0:45	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0–0	—	0–0	—	0–0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Team, games with logs · per 40 team minutes	32 games			80.3	39.9	16.6	not published	2.8	13.2	not published	719–1367	52.6%	224–691	32.4%	470–704	66.8%	51.3%	54.5%	34.2%
Sum of players				80.3	35.1	16.6	6.6	2.8	12.9	18.1	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0.0	+4.8	−0.0	not published	+0.0	+0.3	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $245K; 80% Range $88K to $645K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $235K to $270K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Josiah Davis	84.6%	$17K	$2K to $67K	9.9%	$16K to $18K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Joshua O'Garro	82.0%	$33K	$8K to $105K	15.5%	$32K to $37K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Larry Hughes II	78.3%	$27K	$5K to $85K	13.4%	$26K to $30K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mahmoud Fofana	74.9%	$75K	$23K to $250K	28.4%	$72K to $82K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jordan Brinson	43.9%	$10K	$1K to $38K	5.7%	$10K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Davius Loury	42.2%	$11K	$2K to $43K	6.1%	$11K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
James Evans Jr.	37.4%	$15K	$4K to $51K	7.1%	$14K to $17K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Grady Lewis	23.0%	$4K	$1K to $16K	1.8%	$4K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jai Chisolm	20.0%	$11K	$3K to $33K	4.6%	$10K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aleks Szymczyk	12.4%	$6K	$2K to $19K	2.7%	$6K to $7K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Greg Gazarian	0.6%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Robert Thibiant	0.5%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Joseph Barrio	0.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$245K	$88K to $645K	100%	$235K to $270K	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, California State University-Northridge (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,100,831
Men's basketball expenses	$3,024,543
Athletics department expenses	$23,262,522
Athletics department revenue	$23,671,740

Team Totalsβ

Season per 40 minutes, 32 games, 2,420 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Per 40 uses 1285 game minutes, 5 per overtime period. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	80.3	81.0
Field goals made	29.4	27.1
Field goals attempted	64.1	62.6
3-pointers made	7.0	10.5
3-pointers attempted	21.5	30.4
Free throws made	14.6	16.3
Free throws attempted	21.9	21.5
Offensive rebounds	12.1	10.1
Defensive rebounds	27.8	26.0
Total rebounds	39.9	36.0
Assists	16.6	15.7
Blocks	2.8	4.3
Turnovers	13.2	12.4
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 211.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 582.
Minutes (derived)	200.0	not published

32 of 32 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,580	2,580	0	±12.9	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	943	943	0	±4.7	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	2,058	2,058	0	±10.3	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	224	224	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	691	691	0	±3.5	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	470	470	0	±2.4	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	704	704	0	±3.5	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	1,282	1,128	+154	±102.6	0
Assists	Reconciled	533	534	−1	±2.7	0
Blocks	Reconciled	91	90	+1	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Reconciled	424	413	+11	±12.7	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	211	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	582	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	6,425	6,404	+20.8	±128.5	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Josiah Davis	84.6%	-0.6range -1.8 to +0.4Sufficient evidence
Joshua O'Garro	82.0%	+0.8range -0.2 to +2.0Sufficient evidence
Larry Hughes II	78.3%	+0.3range -0.8 to +1.6Sufficient evidence
Mahmoud Fofana	74.9%	+3.2range +1.7 to +4.9Sufficient evidence
Jordan Brinson	43.9%	-0.5range -1.9 to +0.8Sufficient evidence
Davius Loury	42.2%	-0.5range -1.7 to +1.1Sufficient evidence
James Evans Jr.	37.4%	+0.8range -0.5 to +1.8Sufficient evidence
Grady Lewis	23.0%	-1.9range -2.9 to -0.8Sufficient evidence
Jai Chisolm	20.0%	+0.9range -0.5 to +2.4Sufficient evidence
Aleks Szymczyk	12.4%	+0.4range -0.8 to +1.4Limited evidence
Greg Gazarian	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Robert Thibiant	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Joseph Barrio	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +9.9range +9.1 to +10.8Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

10 valued players hold 99.7% of on-court time. 3 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 0.3%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 2.5%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value