Idaho St.

BSky · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 262 · Raw net -5.8 · Tempo 67.0 · 30 Division I games · Through 2026-03-08

Record: 10–20; 10 wins
AdjNet: -5.6β; rank 250 of 365
AdjO: 108.8β; rank 160 of 365
AdjD: 114.4β; rank 317 of 365
AdjT: 66.6β
SOS: -0.6β; rank 185 of 363
NCSOS: 2.8β
WAB: -13.5β; rank 291 of 363
RR: -1.7β
Exp. W: 11.7β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	109.4145	115.3326	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	51.8152	54.5314	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	17.0205	14.7309	16.7
Offensive rebound %	32.894	27.963	30.6
FTA / FGA %	37.9103	38.0261	35.0
Shooting
3P%	33.6192	34.5220	33.9
2P%	52.9134	56.1328	51.7
FT%	74.1128	76.6355	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	41.9	37.0	39.5
Assists / FGM %	47.0	48.3	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	11.2	9.0	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	32.1	27.7	31.4
2-pointers %	46.6	51.2	48.8
Free throws %	21.3	21.1	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 9.1
Top Three Share of Minutes: 44%
Bench Share of Minutes: 34%
Players with Logged Minutes: 14

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-07	San Diego	W 71–68	63.3	Away	1–0
11-09	San Diego St.	L 57–73	61.7	Away	1–1
11-15	Seattle U	L 74–83	62.4	Away	1–2
11-18	Santa Clara	L 55–64	64.0	Away	1–3
11-26	Sam Houston	L 81–84	72.4	Neutral	1–4
11-28	CSUN	W 82–50	75.5	Neutral	2–4
12-03	Kansas City	W 68–59	60.7	Away	3–4
12-06	Denver	W 93–79	67.2	Home	4–4
12-10	Utah Valley	L 69–73	68.6	Away	4–5
12-21	UC Davis	L 83–93	65.8	Home	4–6
01-01	Sacramento St.	W 97–84	80.7	Home	5–6
01-03	Portland St.	L 87–93 1OT	73.8	Home	5–7
01-08	Northern Colo.	L 72–85	65.0	Away	5–8
01-10	Northern Ariz.	W 81–79	64.2	Away	6–8
01-15	Idaho	W 76–68	66.8	Home	7–8
01-17	Eastern Wash.	L 66–84	67.6	Home	7–9
01-22	Montana St.	L 62–74	62.6	Away	7–10
01-24	Montana	L 60–69	67.2	Away	7–11
01-31	Weber St.	L 79–81	67.3	Away	7–12
02-02	Portland St.	L 65–88	61.9	Away	7–13
02-05	Northern Ariz.	L 73–79	59.4	Home	7–14
02-07	Northern Colo.	L 61–69	64.7	Home	7–15
02-12	Eastern Wash.	L 75–88	65.8	Away	7–16
02-14	Idaho	L 69–99	72.5	Away	7–17
02-19	Montana	W 73–69	67.8	Home	8–17
02-21	Montana St.	W 91–76	72.5	Home	9–17
02-28	Weber St.	L 73–83	68.1	Home	9–18
03-02	Sacramento St.	L 65–83	69.9	Away	9–19
03-07	Northern Ariz.	W 73–65	66.2	Neutral	10–19
03-08	Portland St.	L 78–85	73.5	Neutral	10–20

Roster · 14 players

Player logs in 30 of 30 team games

Team roster, per game
Column groups	Minutes			Per Game							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Connor Hollenbeck	30	29:58	74.6%	12.9	4.6	1.6	0.9	0.3	1.9	2.3	79–151	52.3%	42–121	34.7%	104–134	77.6%	52.2%	58.6%	49.3%	5	27:40 −2:19	69.2%	12.6 −0.3
Lachlan Brewer	30	28:55	72.0%	8.1	3.3	0.9	0.5	0.3	1.2	1.6	55–90	61.1%	34–103	33.0%	30–37	81.1%	54.9%	57.8%	19.2%	5	23:44 −5:10	59.3%	7.6 −0.5
Martin Kheil	29	29:50	71.8%	9.2	2.3	1.2	0.6	0.1	0.9	1.5	17–37	45.9%	64–177	36.2%	41–52	78.8%	52.8%	56.4%	24.3%	5	29:00 −0:50	72.5%	4.4 −4.8
Jamison Guerra	30	25:23	63.2%	8.8	2.3	3.7	0.6	0.1	1.5	2.2	53–126	42.1%	31–78	39.7%	65–78	83.3%	48.8%	55.4%	38.2%	5	19:13 −6:10	48.0%	5.2 −3.6
Caleb Van De Griend	30	18:15	45.4%	10.9	6.2	0.6	0.5	0.6	1.2	1.9	112–197	56.9%	13–39	33.3%†	64–97	66.0%	55.7%	58.7%	41.1%	5	19:01 +0:46	47.5%	10.4 −0.5
Cheikh Sow	28	16:38	38.6%	2.8	3.1	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.7	2.2	18–38	47.4%†	2–25	8.0%†	35–45	77.8%	33.3%†	46.5%†	71.4%†	4	10:14 −6:24	20.5%	1.3 −1.5
Evan Otten	30	14:29	36.1%	4.8	3.6	0.3	0.2	1.7	0.9	3.2	54–100	54.0%	1–1	100.0%†	33–53	62.3%	55.0%	57.9%	52.5%	5	10:13 −4:16	25.5%	2.8 −2.0
Gus Etchison	29	13:37	32.8%	9.0	1.3	2.3	0.5	0.1	1.2	0.9	62–117	53.0%	33–93	35.5%	37–55	67.3%	53.1%	55.5%	26.2%	5	20:24 +6:46	51.0%	17.0 +8.0
Louis Bond	23	14:09	27.0%	5.1	2.0	0.6	0.3	0.3	0.9	1.2	26–51	51.0%†	11–31	35.5%†	33–39	84.6%	51.8%†	59.5%†	47.6%†	5	29:09 +15:00	72.9%	9.6 +4.5
Blake Daberkow	29	8:03	19.4%	3.3	1.5	0.4	0.2	0.3	0.6	1.3	36–63	57.1%†	0–6	0.0%†	24–38	63.2%	52.2%†	56.0%†	55.1%†	5	10:12 +2:09	25.5%	4.4 +1.1
Quin Patterson	22	7:20	13.4%	0.9	0.6	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.3	0.3	0–0	—	5–25	20.0%†	4–6	66.7%†	30.0%†	34.4%†	24.0%†	2	3:44 −3:37	3.7%	2.5 +1.6
Landen BirleyFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	9	3:19	2.5%	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	2–2	100.0%†	0–2	0.0%†	0–0	—	50.0%†	50.0%†	0.0%†	2	0:51 −2:28	0.8%	0.0 −0.4
Jaedyn BrownFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	2	3:42	0.6%	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1–2	50.0%†	0–0	—	0–0	—	50.0%†	50.0%†	0.0%†	—	—	—	—
Kasen CarpenterFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	7	0:56	0.5%	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.0	0–0	—	0–1	0.0%†	1–2	50.0%†	0.0%†	26.6%†	200.0%†	1	0:42 −0:14	0.3%	0.0 −0.1
Team, games with logs · per game	30 games			73.6	32.4	11.8	not published	4.0	11.4	not published	515–974	52.9%	236–702	33.6%	471–636	74.1%	51.8%	56.5%	37.9%
Sum of players				73.6	30.0	11.8	5.2	4.0	10.9	18.0	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0.0	+2.5	0.0	not published	0.0	+0.5	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $205K; 80% Range $75K to $560K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $185K to $215K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Connor Hollenbeck	75.9%	$8K	$1K to $45K	6.3%	$7K to $8K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Martin Kheil	72.0%	$22K	$2K to $78K	13.0%	$19K to $23K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Lachlan Brewer	71.9%	$9K	$1K to $48K	7.8%	$8K to $10K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jamison Guerra	63.1%	$26K	$5K to $83K	13.4%	$23K to $27K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Caleb Van De Griend	44.9%	$43K	$12K to $160K	18.1%	$38K to $45K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cheikh Sow	38.5%	$9K	$1K to $34K	5.8%	$8K to $9K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Evan Otten	36.7%	$7K	$1K to $30K	5.0%	$6K to $7K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Gus Etchison	33.0%	$19K	$5K to $66K	8.5%	$17K to $20K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Louis Bond	28.2%	$9K	$1K to $32K	5.3%	$8K to $9K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Blake Daberkow	19.3%	$11K	$3K to $36K	5.2%	$10K to $12K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Quin Patterson	12.5%	$3K	$1K to $9K	1.1%	$2K to $3K	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Landen Birley	2.7%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaedyn Brown	0.6%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Kasen Carpenter	0.6%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$205K	$75K to $560K	100%	$185K to $215K	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Idaho State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$1,428,073	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$1,428,073
Athletics department expenses	$20,271,087
Athletics department revenue	$20,271,087

Team Totalsβ

Season per game, 30 games, 2,019 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	73.6	77.6
Field goals made	25.0	27.0
Field goals attempted	55.9	56.2
3-pointers made	7.9	7.2
3-pointers attempted	23.4	20.8
Free throws made	15.7	16.3
Free throws attempted	21.2	21.3
Offensive rebounds	10.5	8.5
Defensive rebounds	21.9	21.6
Total rebounds	32.4	30.1
Assists	11.8	13.1
Blocks	4.0	2.9
Turnovers	11.4	9.9
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 155.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 541.
Minutes (derived)	200.8	not published

30 of 30 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,209	2,209	0	±11.0	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	751	751	0	±3.8	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,676	1,676	0	±8.4	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	236	236	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	702	702	0	±3.5	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	471	471	0	±2.4	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	636	636	0	±3.2	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Reconciled	973	899	+74	±77.8	0
Assists	Reconciled	353	353	0	±2.0	0
Blocks	Reconciled	119	119	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	343	328	+15	±10.3	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	155	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	541	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	6,025	6,000	+25.0	±120.5	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Connor Hollenbeck	75.9%	-1.9range -3.5 to -0.6Sufficient evidence
Martin Kheil	72.0%	-0.3range -1.7 to +1.2Sufficient evidence
Lachlan Brewer	71.9%	-1.4range -2.4 to -0.4Sufficient evidence
Jamison Guerra	63.1%	+0.3range -0.8 to +1.3Sufficient evidence
Caleb Van De Griend	44.9%	+2.1range +0.8 to +3.4Sufficient evidence
Cheikh Sow	38.5%	-0.9range -2.0 to +0.3Sufficient evidence
Evan Otten	36.7%	-1.2range -2.8 to +0.2Sufficient evidence
Gus Etchison	33.0%	+0.9range -0.3 to +2.2Sufficient evidence
Louis Bond	28.2%	-0.6range -1.8 to +0.9Sufficient evidence
Blake Daberkow	19.3%	+0.8range -0.1 to +1.7Sufficient evidence
Quin Patterson	12.5%	-2.4range -3.4 to -1.5Limited evidence
Landen Birley	2.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Jaedyn Brown	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Kasen Carpenter	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +8.9range +8.1 to +9.8Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

11 valued players hold 99.2% of on-court time. 3 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 0.8%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 2.5%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value