CS Northridge

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for CS Northridge, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Josiah Davis	84.6%	-0.6range -1.8 to +0.4Sufficient evidence	+5.5range +4.7 to +6.2Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $67KLoading
Joshua O'Garro	82.0%	+0.8range -0.2 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	+6.1range +5.5 to +6.8Sufficient evidence	$33KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $105KLoading
Larry Hughes II	78.3%	+0.3range -0.8 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+5.6range +5.0 to +6.3Sufficient evidence	$27KspeculativeLoading	$5K to $85KLoading
Mahmoud Fofana	74.9%	+3.2range +1.7 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	+6.8range +6.0 to +7.7Sufficient evidence	$75KspeculativeLoading	$23K to $250KLoading
Jordan Brinson	43.9%	-0.5range -1.9 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.4 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $38KLoading
Davius Loury	42.2%	-0.5range -1.7 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.5 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $43KLoading
James Evans Jr.	37.4%	+0.8range -0.5 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.5 to +3.3Sufficient evidence	$15KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $51KLoading
Grady Lewis	23.0%	-1.9range -2.9 to -0.8Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.1 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $16KLoading
Jai Chisolm	20.0%	+0.9range -0.5 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.4 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $33KLoading
Aleks Szymczyk	12.4%	+0.4range -0.8 to +1.4Limited evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.1Limited evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $19KLoading
Greg Gazarian	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Robert Thibiant	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Joseph Barrio	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $245K; 80% Range $88K to $645K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $235K to $270K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Josiah Davis	84.6%	$17K	$2K to $67K	9.9%	$16K to $18K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Joshua O'Garro	82.0%	$33K	$8K to $105K	15.5%	$32K to $37K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Larry Hughes II	78.3%	$27K	$5K to $85K	13.4%	$26K to $30K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mahmoud Fofana	74.9%	$75K	$23K to $250K	28.4%	$72K to $82K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jordan Brinson	43.9%	$10K	$1K to $38K	5.7%	$10K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Davius Loury	42.2%	$11K	$2K to $43K	6.1%	$11K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
James Evans Jr.	37.4%	$15K	$4K to $51K	7.1%	$14K to $17K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Grady Lewis	23.0%	$4K	$1K to $16K	1.8%	$4K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jai Chisolm	20.0%	$11K	$3K to $33K	4.6%	$10K to $12K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aleks Szymczyk	12.4%	$6K	$2K to $19K	2.7%	$6K to $7K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Greg Gazarian	0.6%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Robert Thibiant	0.5%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Joseph Barrio	0.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$245K	$88K to $645K	100%	$235K to $270K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, California State University-Northridge (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,100,831
Men's basketball expenses	$3,024,543
Athletics department expenses	$23,262,522
Athletics department revenue	$23,671,740

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (91%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$3,100,831	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,024,543	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched through an NCES IPEDS institution alias, with state and home-venue city agreeing.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	11
3 or more days	19

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	2
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology