Evansville

MVC · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 351 · Raw net -18.4 · Tempo 67.4 · 30 Division I games · Through 2026-03-05

Record: 5–25; 5 wins
AdjNet: -12.2β; rank 322 of 365
AdjO: 100.8β; rank 322 of 365
AdjD: 113.0β; rank 290 of 365
AdjT: 67.9β
SOS: 4.2β; rank 84 of 363
NCSOS: 3.7β
WAB: -16.1β; rank 330 of 363
RR: 0.2β
Exp. W: 4.8β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	96.9345	115.3327	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	49.3280	55.1333	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	19.1323	15.4259	16.7
Offensive rebound %	22.0355	30.2170	30.6
FTA / FGA %	29.8314	31.494	35.0
Shooting
3P%	32.2268	37.6351	33.9
2P%	49.9256	54.0277	51.7
FT%	73.6151	74.5298	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	43.1	43.2	39.5
Assists / FGM %	54.3	58.0	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	10.0	7.2	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	34.6	36.5	31.4
2-pointers %	47.2	46.0	48.8
Free throws %	18.2	17.5	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 8.2
Top Three Share of Minutes: 45%
Bench Share of Minutes: 28%
Players with Logged Minutes: 13

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-04	Purdue	L 51–82	61.8	Away	0–1
11-12	Middle Tenn.	L 72–77	71.2	Home	0–2
11-18	UT Arlington	L 76–84	68.6	Home	0–3
11-21	Oregon St.	W 73–69	67.8	Neutral	1–3
11-23	Akron	L 59–97	69.9	Neutral	1–4
11-24	Col. of Charleston	L 59–78	70.3	Neutral	1–5
12-03	Ball St.	W 64–52	67.1	Home	2–5
12-06	Western Ky.	L 79–80	72.9	Away	2–6
12-13	Notre Dame	L 58–82	66.6	Away	2–7
12-16	Belmont	L 78–83	76.1	Home	2–8
12-21	Drake	L 65–66	65.3	Home	2–9
12-29	Bradley	L 68–76	68.8	Away	2–10
01-01	Illinois St.	L 47–73	71.6	Away	2–11
01-04	UNI	L 48–62	63.7	Home	2–12
01-07	Murray St.	L 69–79	71.4	Home	2–13
01-10	Indiana St.	W 72–69	72.0	Away	3–13
01-13	Bradley	L 90–94 1OT	76.0	Home	3–14
01-20	UIC	L 49–76	67.1	Away	3–15
01-28	Drake	L 78–82	66.9	Away	3–16
01-31	UNI	L 55–71	58.1	Away	3–17
02-03	Indiana St.	L 63–84	62.7	Home	3–18
02-06	Valparaiso	L 63–70 1OT	69.2	Away	3–19
02-09	Illinois St.	W 88–80	66.3	Home	4–19
02-12	Southern Ill.	L 60–86	68.1	Away	4–20
02-18	UIC	L 46–84	64.6	Home	4–21
02-21	Murray St.	L 75–88	72.1	Away	4–22
02-25	Belmont	L 64–98	67.5	Away	4–23
02-28	Valparaiso	W 80–79	67.9	Home	5–23
03-01	Southern Ill.	L 67–81	63.9	Home	5–24
03-05	UNI	L 59–68	62.8	Neutral	5–25

Roster · 13 players

Player logs in 30 of 30 team games

Team roster, season totals
Column groups	Minutes			Season Totals							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Leif Moeller	30	32:47	81.3%	332	110	112	25	10	83	46	65–153	42.5%	47–127	37.0%	61–78	78.2%	48.4%	52.8%	27.9%	5	37:49 +5:02	94.5%	12.6 +1.5
AJ Casey	30	30:12	74.9%	417	179	61	35	18	63	79	135–241	56.0%	20–60	33.3%	87–118	73.7%	54.8%	59.1%	39.2%	5	36:15 +6:03	90.6%	23.2 +9.3
Joshua Hughes	30	28:12	69.9%	272	141	24	13	13	34	79	55–89	61.8%	41–111	36.9%	39–52	75.0%	58.3%	61.0%	26.0%	5	31:33 +3:21	78.9%	10.2 +1.1
Bryce Quinet	30	27:24	67.9%	257	61	72	30	2	56	48	71–156	45.5%	19–71	26.8%	58–80	72.5%	43.8%	49.0%	35.2%	5	30:17 +2:53	75.7%	8.6 0.0
Alex Hemenway	30	26:31	65.7%	194	58	25	12	3	19	49	13–38	34.2%	47–155	30.3%	27–33	81.8%	43.3%	46.7%	17.1%	5	28:46 +2:15	71.9%	6.4 −0.1
Trent Hundley	30	17:28	43.3%	150	46	19	11	9	16	41	10–23	43.5%	36–100	36.0%	22–25	88.0%	52.0%	56.0%	20.3%	5	22:15 +4:47	55.6%	7.6 +2.6
Keishon Porter	14	22:57	26.6%	102	38	19	8	3	21	34	31–70	44.3%	5–30	16.7%†	25–37	67.6%	38.5%	43.9%	37.0%	—	—	—	—
Kaia Berridge	26	11:21	24.4%	42	27	18	8	4	17	33	4–11	36.4%†	9–34	26.5%†	7–12	58.3%†	38.9%†	41.8%†	26.7%†	5	8:42 −2:39	21.7%	0.4 −1.2
Connor Turnbull	14	20:38	23.9%	166	88	13	5	33	30	34	62–123	50.4%	4–17	23.5%†	30–45	66.7%	48.6%	51.9%	32.1%	—	—	—	—
James Dyson-Merwe	19	12:37	19.8%	43	59	14	2	5	28	37	20–29	69.0%†	0–2	0.0%†	3–8	37.5%†	64.5%†	62.3%†	25.8%†	1	17:52 +5:15	8.9%	0.0 −2.3
Weston AignerFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	3	1:20	0.3%	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	0–0	—	0–0	—	0–0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Leo Amari IVFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	3	1:18	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0–0	—	0–0	—	0–0	—	—	—	—	1	1:11 −0:07	0.6%	0.0 0.0
Marlon Barnes, Jr.Few gamesUnder 100 minutes	1	2:03	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0–0	—	0–0	—	0–0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Team, games with logs · season totals	30 games			1975	911	377	not published	100	389	not published	466–933	49.9%	228–707	32.2%	359–488	73.6%	49.3%	53.2%	29.8%
Sum of players				1975	808	377	149	100	371	481	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0	+103	0	not published	0	+18	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $495K; 80% Range $210K to $1.10M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $440K to $610K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 3 floor only

The widest scenario range, $265K to $1.35M, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Leif Moeller	80.8%	$16K	$2K to $100K	4.7%	$15K to $20K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
AJ Casey	74.7%	$35K	$2K to $135K	11.3%	$32K to $44K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Joshua Hughes	70.5%	$32K	$2K to $135K	9.7%	$29K to $40K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bryce Quinet	68.1%	$55K	$3K to $180K	13.5%	$49K to $68K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Alex Hemenway	66.4%	$64K	$4K to $210K	14.3%	$57K to $78K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Trent Hundley	42.9%	$23K	$2K to $87K	6.7%	$21K to $28K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Keishon Porter	28.2%	$10K	$2K to $42K	2.5%	$9K to $12K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Connor Turnbull	24.1%	$77K	$22K to $405K	12.4%	$69K to $96K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kaia Berridge	23.8%	$9K	$2K to $35K	2.2%	$8K to $11K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
James Dyson-Merwe	19.7%	$16K	$3K to $56K	4.1%	$14K to $20K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Weston Aigner	0.4%	$4K	$1K to $9K	0.8%	$3K to $4K	$4K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Leo Amari IV	0.3%	$4K	$1K to $9K	0.8%	$3K to $4K	$4K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Marlon Barnes, Jr.	0.2%	$4K	$1K to $9K	0.8%	$3K to $4K	$4K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$495K	$210K to $1.10M	100%	$440K to $610K	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Evansville (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,212,821	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,212,821
Athletics department expenses	$14,961,560
Athletics department revenue	$14,961,560

Team Totalsβ

Season totals, 30 games, 2,038 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	1,975	2,350
Field goals made	694	826
Field goals attempted	1,640	1,760
3-pointers made	228	286
3-pointers attempted	707	760
Free throws made	359	412
Free throws attempted	488	553
Offensive rebounds	223	298
Defensive rebounds	688	789
Total rebounds	911	1,087
Assists	377	479
Blocks	100	67
Turnovers	389	314
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 149.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 481.
Minutes (derived)	6,050	not published

30 of 30 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	1,975	1,975	0	±9.9	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	694	694	0	±3.5	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,640	1,640	0	±8.2	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	228	228	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	707	707	0	±3.5	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	359	359	0	±2.0	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	488	488	0	±2.4	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	911	808	+103	±72.9	0
Assists	Reconciled	377	377	0	±2.0	0
Blocks	Reconciled	100	100	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	389	371	+18	±11.7	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	149	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	481	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	6,050	6,032	+18.2	±121.0	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Leif Moeller	80.8%	-2.7range -3.8 to -1.4Sufficient evidence
AJ Casey	74.7%	-1.6range -2.7 to -0.3Sufficient evidence
Joshua Hughes	70.5%	-1.7range -3.0 to -0.3Sufficient evidence
Bryce Quinet	68.1%	-0.9range -2.0 to +0.1Sufficient evidence
Alex Hemenway	66.4%	-0.7range -1.8 to +0.5Sufficient evidence
Trent Hundley	42.9%	-1.6range -3.0 to -0.2Sufficient evidence
Keishon Porter	28.2%	-2.5range -3.7 to -1.3Sufficient evidence
Connor Turnbull	24.1%	+1.2range +0.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence
Kaia Berridge	23.8%	-2.5range -3.8 to -1.3Sufficient evidence
James Dyson-Merwe	19.7%	-1.1range -2.3 to +0.1Sufficient evidence
Weston Aigner	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Leo Amari IV	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Marlon Barnes, Jr.	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +8.0range +7.2 to +8.9Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

10 valued players hold 99.8% of on-court time. 3 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 0.2%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 0.0%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value