AJ Casey
Evansville · 2025–26 · 30 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
906:10 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 30
- Minutes per game
- 30:12
- Points per game
- 13.9
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 6.0 / 2.0
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 13.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| Per 40 minutes | 18.4 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 3.5 |
| Season totals | 417 | 179 | 61 | 35 | 18 | 63 | 79 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 155–301 | 51.5% | 10.0 | 13.3 |
| 2P | 135–241 | 56.0% | 8.0 | 10.6 |
| 3P | 20–60 | 33.3% | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| FT | 87–118 | 73.7% | 3.9 | 5.2 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54.8% | 59.1% | 19.9% | 39.2% | 0.97 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Evansville · Mid and high major · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $35K
- 80% range $2K to $135K
- Median share of team pool
- 11.3%
- team pool $495K, 80% range $210K to $1.10M
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $32K to $44K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $4K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 74.7%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Evansville: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Evansville | $35Kspeculative | $2K to $135K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | -1.6 | -2.7 to -0.3 | Sufficient evidence | -0.3 | -1.3 | +2.0range +1.7 to +2.3 | 2,951 | Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 36:15 | 30:12 | 13:48–41:45 | |
| Points | 23.2 | 13.9 | 2.0–37.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 57.3% | 51.2% | 0.0%–84.4% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | UNI | L 59–68 | 39:01 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6-15 | 2-5 | 9-10 | 46.7% |
| 2026-03-01 | Southern Ill. | L 67–81 | 37:07 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 5-8 | 45.8% |
| 2026-02-28 | Valparaiso | W 80–79 | 34:36 | 37 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12-16 | 3-3 | 10-11 | 84.4% |
| 2026-02-25 | Belmont | L 64–98 | 35:10 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10-16 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 62.5% |
| 2026-02-21 | Murray St. | L 75–88 | 35:21 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8-18 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 47.2% |
| 2026-02-18 | UIC | L 46–84 | 27:59 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 25.0% |
| 2026-02-12 | Southern Ill. | L 60–86 | 33:46 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 37.5% |
| 2026-02-09 | Illinois St. | W 88–80 | 33:33 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10-15 | 3-5 | 5-7 | 76.7% |
| 2026-02-06 | Valparaiso | L 63–70 | 41:45 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 7-18 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 41.7% |
| 2026-02-03 · NCAA | Indiana St. | L 63–84 | 29:24 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 55.6% |
| 2026-01-31 | UNI | L 55–71 | 34:58 | 17 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8-14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 60.7% |
| 2026-01-28 | Drake | L 78–82 | 32:38 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7-11 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 68.2% |
| 2026-01-20 | UIC | L 49–76 | 26:37 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1-8 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 12.5% |
| 2026-01-13 | Bradley | L 90–94 | 40:46 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 4-8 | 45.0% |
| 2026-01-10 | Indiana St. | W 72–69 | 25:07 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7-12 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 62.5% |
| 2026-01-07 | Murray St. | L 69–79 | 30:52 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10-13 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 80.8% |
| 2026-01-04 | UNI | L 48–62 | 31:23 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7-9 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 77.8% |
| 2026-01-01 | Illinois St. | L 47–73 | 23:09 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 58.3% |
| 2025-12-29 | Bradley | L 68–76 | 22:35 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8-11 | 0-1 | 5-7 | 72.7% |
| 2025-12-21 | Drake | L 65–66 | 28:26 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 66.7% |
| 2025-12-16 | Belmont | L 78–83 | 32:09 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5-13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 46.2% |
| 2025-12-13 | Notre Dame | L 58–82 | 17:59 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 42.9% |
| 2025-12-06 | Western Ky. | L 79–80 | 28:56 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 41.7% |
| 2025-12-03 | Ball St. | W 64–52 | 26:27 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 42.9% |
| 2025-11-24 | Col. of Charleston | L 59–78 | 21:45 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-23 | Akron | L 59–97 | 30:10 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 5-7 | 66.7% |
| 2025-11-21 | Oregon St. | W 73–69 | 25:57 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 25.0% |
| 2025-11-18 | UT Arlington | L 76–84 | 13:48 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | — |
| 2025-11-12 | Middle Tenn. | L 72–77 | 36:34 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 44.4% |
| 2025-11-04 | Purdue | L 51–82 | 28:12 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6-13 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 46.2% |