Evansville

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Evansville, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Leif Moeller	80.8%	-2.7range -3.8 to -1.4Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.5 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $100KLoading
AJ Casey	74.7%	-1.6range -2.7 to -0.3Sufficient evidence	+2.0range +1.7 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	$35KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $135KLoading
Joshua Hughes	70.5%	-1.7range -3.0 to -0.3Sufficient evidence	+1.9range +1.6 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$32KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $135KLoading
Bryce Quinet	68.1%	-0.9range -2.0 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+2.0range +1.7 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$55KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $180KLoading
Alex Hemenway	66.4%	-0.7range -1.8 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+2.0range +1.8 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$64KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $210KLoading
Trent Hundley	42.9%	-1.6range -3.0 to -0.2Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.0 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	$23KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $87KLoading
Keishon Porter	28.2%	-2.5range -3.7 to -1.3Sufficient evidence	+0.8range +0.6 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	$10KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $42KLoading
Connor Turnbull	24.1%	+1.2range +0.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.9 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$77KspeculativeLoading	$22K to $405KLoading
Kaia Berridge	23.8%	-2.5range -3.8 to -1.3Sufficient evidence	+0.7range +0.5 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	$9KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $35KLoading
James Dyson-Merwe	19.7%	-1.1range -2.3 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+0.7range +0.5 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $56KLoading
Weston Aigner	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$4Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $9KLoading
Leo Amari IV	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$4Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $9KLoading
Marlon Barnes, Jr.	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$4Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $9KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $495K; 80% Range $210K to $1.10M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $440K to $610K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 3 floor only

The widest scenario range, $265K to $1.35M, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Leif Moeller	80.8%	$16K	$2K to $100K	4.7%	$15K to $20K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
AJ Casey	74.7%	$35K	$2K to $135K	11.3%	$32K to $44K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Joshua Hughes	70.5%	$32K	$2K to $135K	9.7%	$29K to $40K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bryce Quinet	68.1%	$55K	$3K to $180K	13.5%	$49K to $68K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Alex Hemenway	66.4%	$64K	$4K to $210K	14.3%	$57K to $78K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Trent Hundley	42.9%	$23K	$2K to $87K	6.7%	$21K to $28K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Keishon Porter	28.2%	$10K	$2K to $42K	2.5%	$9K to $12K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Connor Turnbull	24.1%	$77K	$22K to $405K	12.4%	$69K to $96K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kaia Berridge	23.8%	$9K	$2K to $35K	2.2%	$8K to $11K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
James Dyson-Merwe	19.7%	$16K	$3K to $56K	4.1%	$14K to $20K	$4K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Weston Aigner	0.4%	$4K	$1K to $9K	0.8%	$3K to $4K	$4K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Leo Amari IV	0.3%	$4K	$1K to $9K	0.8%	$3K to $4K	$4K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Marlon Barnes, Jr.	0.2%	$4K	$1K to $9K	0.8%	$3K to $4K	$4K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$495K	$210K to $1.10M	100%	$440K to $610K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Evansville (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,212,821	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,212,821
Athletics department expenses	$14,961,560
Athletics department revenue	$14,961,560

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$3,212,821	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,212,821	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	1
3 or more days	26

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology