Arkansas St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Arkansas St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Chandler Jackson	69.3%	+3.5range +2.4 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	+6.4range +5.7 to +7.1Sufficient evidence	$68KspeculativeLoading	$23K to $200KLoading
Christian Harmon	68.7%	+2.4range +1.2 to +3.9Sufficient evidence	+5.8range +5.1 to +6.5Sufficient evidence	$49KspeculativeLoading	$16K to $135KLoading
Jalen Hampton	62.9%	+1.5range +0.4 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+4.9range +4.3 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	$34KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $100KLoading
Jaxon Ellingsworth	55.6%	-0.1range -1.5 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.2 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $58KLoading
Matt Hayman	54.3%	+0.3range -0.8 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+3.8range +3.2 to +4.3Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $60KLoading
TJ Caldwell	48.3%	-1.4range -2.6 to -0.3Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.3 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $35KLoading
Aly Tounkara	43.7%	+2.6range +1.5 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.3 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$33KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $95KLoading
Chudi Dioramma	31.1%	+0.1range -1.4 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.7 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $37KLoading
Royal Blue Smith	27.0%	-0.6range -1.7 to +0.8Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.4 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $28KLoading
Joey Chammaa	26.2%	-0.4range -1.6 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+1.6range +1.4 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $28KLoading
Fredy-Salam Sylla	13.0%	-1.2range -2.1 to -0.1Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.9Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $14KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $280K; 80% Range $100K to $745K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $270K to $290K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 11

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Chandler Jackson	69.3%	$68K	$23K to $200K	23.0%	$65K to $71K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Christian Harmon	68.7%	$49K	$16K to $135K	16.6%	$46K to $50K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jalen Hampton	62.9%	$34K	$10K to $100K	12.9%	$33K to $36K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaxon Ellingsworth	55.6%	$16K	$3K to $58K	7.4%	$15K to $17K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matt Hayman	54.3%	$18K	$3K to $60K	8.1%	$17K to $18K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
TJ Caldwell	48.3%	$8K	$1K to $35K	3.5%	$7K to $8K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aly Tounkara	43.7%	$33K	$11K to $95K	11.2%	$32K to $34K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chudi Dioramma	31.1%	$11K	$2K to $37K	4.8%	$10K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Royal Blue Smith	27.0%	$8K	$2K to $28K	3.6%	$8K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Joey Chammaa	26.2%	$8K	$2K to $28K	3.6%	$8K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Fredy-Salam Sylla	13.0%	$4K	$1K to $14K	1.7%	$4K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$280K	$100K to $745K	100%	$270K to $290K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Arkansas State University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$3,024,737	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$3,024,737
Athletics department expenses	$33,754,642
Athletics department revenue	$33,754,642

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (93%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$3,024,737	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$3,024,737	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	4
3 or more days	25

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	3
Longest run of consecutive away games	5

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology