San Diego St.

MWC · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 76 · Raw net 7.3 · Tempo 69.2 · 31 Division I games · Through 2026-03-14

Record: 20–11; 20 wins
AdjNet: 11.2β; rank 57 of 365
AdjO: 110.2β; rank 127 of 365
AdjD: 99.0β; rank 24 of 365
AdjT: 69.4β
SOS: 5.8β; rank 71 of 363
NCSOS: 5.1β
WAB: -0.1β; rank 50 of 363
RR: 1.3β
Exp. W: 18.7β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	108.2179	101.033	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	52.4129	48.241	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	17.2222	20.418	16.7
Offensive rebound %	29.2230	31.0207	30.6
FTA / FGA %	38.393	38.4271	35.0
Shooting
3P%	34.3156	33.7168	33.9
2P%	53.0129	46.113	51.7
FT%	73.4160	73.4245	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	33.9	47.3	39.5
Assists / FGM %	54.2	58.5	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	15.5	6.4	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	26.2	38.4	31.4
2-pointers %	52.7	39.0	48.8
Free throws %	21.1	22.6	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 10.2
Top Three Share of Minutes: 39%
Bench Share of Minutes: 42%
Players with Logged Minutes: 14

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-04	Long Beach St.	W 77–45	71.2	Home	1–0
11-09	Idaho St.	W 73–57	61.7	Home	2–0
11-18	Troy	L 107–108 2OT	89.6	Home	2–1
11-24	Michigan	L 54–94	75.5	Neutral	2–2
11-25	Oregon	W 97–80	70.4	Neutral	3–2
11-26	Baylor	L 81–91	70.7	Neutral	3–3
12-03	Utah Valley	W 77–66	70.2	Home	4–3
12-10	Lamar University	W 89–71	76.1	Home	5–3
12-17	Air Force	W 81–58	63.9	Home	6–3
12-20	Arizona	L 45–68	62.9	Neutral	6–4
12-30	San Jose St.	W 81–68	72.9	Away	7–4
01-03	Boise St.	W 110–107 3OT	96.0	Home	8–4
01-06	Nevada	W 73–68	64.3	Away	9–4
01-10	Fresno St.	W 71–52	74.0	Home	10–4
01-14	Wyoming	W 74–57	65.8	Away	11–4
01-17	New Mexico	W 83–79	78.1	Home	12–4
01-21	Grand Canyon	L 69–70	70.7	Away	12–5
01-24	UNLV	W 82–71	67.9	Away	13–5
01-28	Colorado St.	W 73–50	60.9	Home	14–5
01-31	Utah St.	L 66–71	75.2	Away	14–6
02-03	Wyoming	W 72–63	67.2	Home	15–6
02-07	Air Force	W 88–54	70.2	Away	16–6
02-14	Nevada	W 71–57	62.7	Home	17–6
02-17	Grand Canyon	L 63–73	71.2	Home	17–7
02-21	Colorado St.	L 74–83	67.6	Away	17–8
02-28	New Mexico	L 76–81	70.3	Away	17–9
03-03	Boise St.	L 77–86	68.1	Away	17–10
03-06	UNLV	W 89–86	73.7	Home	18–10
03-12	Colorado St.	W 71–62	69.6	Neutral	19–10
03-14	Utah St.	L 62–73	65.3	Neutral	19–11
03-14	New Mexico	W 64–62	66.1	Neutral	20–11

Roster · 14 players

Player logs in 31 of 31 team games

Team roster, season totals
Column groups	Minutes			Season Totals							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Reese Dixon-Waters	30	30:18	71.8%	388	106	39	25	3	42	62	84–170	49.4%	48–138	34.8%	76–88	86.4%	50.6%	56.0%	28.6%	5	33:24 +3:06	83.5%	15.6 +2.7
Miles Byrd	31	28:13	69.2%	330	141	81	61	39	63	62	67–132	50.8%	43–137	31.4%	67–84	79.8%	48.9%	53.9%	31.2%	5	27:52 −0:21	69.7%	7.8 −2.8
BJ Davis	31	22:34	55.3%	345	99	66	35	4	31	69	73–154	47.4%	35–96	36.5%	94–111	84.7%	50.2%	57.7%	44.4%	5	24:03 +1:29	60.1%	13.6 +2.5
Taj DeGourville	31	19:17	47.2%	164	86	83	27	4	46	52	39–105	37.1%	17–49	34.7%†	35–53	66.0%	41.9%	46.2%	34.4%	5	18:53 −0:24	47.2%	4.0 −1.3
Miles Heide	30	19:31	46.3%	160	138	26	16	18	33	76	64–106	60.4%	2–7	28.6%†	26–51	51.0%	59.3%	59.1%	45.1%	4	17:50 −1:41	35.7%	5.0 −0.3
Sean Newman Jr.	31	15:35	38.2%	108	38	77	17	1	28	29	25–62	40.3%†	9–32	28.1%†	31–36	86.1%	41.0%†	49.2%†	38.3%†	5	16:34 +0:58	41.4%	4.0 +0.5
Magoon Gwath	23	19:05	34.7%	198	94	7	11	36	34	43	54–99	54.5%	18–43	41.9%†	36–60	60.0%	57.0%	58.8%	42.3%	5	23:12 +4:07	58.0%	9.2 +0.6
Elzie Harrington	21	20:42	34.4%	170	34	46	13	2	34	29	47–96	49.0%	17–39	43.6%†	25–31	80.6%	53.7%	57.2%	23.0%	1	24:16 +3:34	12.1%	9.0 +0.9
Tae Simmons	30	14:15	33.8%	161	98	6	10	5	13	56	54–82	65.9%†	2–8	25.0%†	47–73	64.4%	63.3%†	65.9%†	81.1%†	5	20:32 +6:17	51.3%	7.2 +1.8
Pharaoh Compton	31	13:36	33.3%	215	79	9	16	28	23	75	87–117	74.4%	0–2	0.0%†	41–63	65.1%	73.1%	73.3%	52.9%	5	10:10 −3:26	25.4%	4.2 −2.7
Jeremiah Oden	29	13:49	31.7%	123	64	10	12	3	14	27	29–52	55.8%	14–48	29.2%†	23–33	69.7%	50.0%	53.7%	33.0%	4	7:11 −6:39	14.3%	1.5 −2.7
Thokbor MajakFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	7	2:50	1.6%	0	8	0	0	2	1	6	0–2	0.0%†	0–0	—	0–0	—	0.0%†	0.0%†	0.0%†	—	—	—	—
Cam LawinFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	5	1:39	0.7%	8	0	0	0	0	1	1	1–1	100.0%†	2–5	40.0%†	0–0	—	66.7%†	66.7%†	0.0%†	—	—	—	—
Raymar GonzalesFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	3	1:45	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0–0	—	0–0	—	0–0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Team, games with logs · season totals	31 games			2370	1073	450	not published	145	377	not published	624–1178	53.0%	207–604	34.3%	501–683	73.4%	52.4%	56.9%	38.3%
Sum of players				2370	985	450	243	145	363	588	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0	+88	0	not published	0	+14	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $1.15M; 80% Range $505K to $2.55M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $1.05M to $1.20M; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Reese Dixon-Waters	71.8%	$135K	$44K to $325K	12.6%	$120K to $140K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Miles Byrd	69.5%	$160K	$63K to $395K	14.2%	$145K to $170K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
BJ Davis	54.7%	$150K	$60K to $365K	12.4%	$135K to $155K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Miles Heide	47.2%	$115K	$44K to $280K	9.8%	$100K to $120K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Taj DeGourville	47.0%	$87K	$28K to $220K	8.4%	$78K to $91K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sean Newman Jr.	38.2%	$78K	$30K to $190K	7.3%	$71K to $82K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Elzie Harrington	35.7%	$53K	$16K to $135K	5.4%	$47K to $55K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Magoon Gwath	33.8%	$58K	$17K to $150K	5.7%	$52K to $61K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tae Simmons	33.7%	$92K	$34K to $230K	7.6%	$82K to $96K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Pharaoh Compton	33.2%	$100K	$42K to $250K	8.3%	$91K to $105K	$8K	Sufficient evidence
Jeremiah Oden	32.5%	$40K	$10K to $115K	4.2%	$36K to $42K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Thokbor Majak	1.6%	$8K	$3K to $19K	0.7%	$7K to $8K	$8K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Cam Lawin	0.6%	$8K	$3K to $19K	0.7%	$7K to $8K	$8K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Raymar Gonzales	0.4%	$8K	$3K to $19K	0.7%	$7K to $8K	$8K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$1.15M	$505K to $2.55M	100%	$1.05M to $1.20M	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, San Diego State University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$15,269,898
Men's basketball expenses	$9,110,688
Athletics department expenses	$89,827,012
Athletics department revenue	$89,827,012

Team Totalsβ

Season totals, 31 games, 2,190 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	2,370	2,211
Field goals made	831	714
Field goals attempted	1,782	1,774
3-pointers made	207	283
3-pointers attempted	604	839
Free throws made	501	500
Free throws attempted	683	681
Offensive rebounds	298	349
Defensive rebounds	775	723
Total rebounds	1,073	1,072
Assists	450	418
Blocks	145	75
Turnovers	377	446
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 243.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 588.
Minutes (derived)	6,325	not published

31 of 31 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,370	2,370	0	±11.8	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	831	831	0	±4.2	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,782	1,782	0	±8.9	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	207	207	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	604	604	0	±3.0	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	501	501	0	±2.5	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	683	683	0	±3.4	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	1,073	985	+88	±85.8	0
Assists	Reconciled	450	450	0	±2.3	0
Blocks	Reconciled	145	145	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	377	363	+14	±11.3	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	243	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	588	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	6,325	6,307	+18.1	±126.5	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Reese Dixon-Waters	71.8%	+1.6range +0.4 to +2.9Sufficient evidence
Miles Byrd	69.5%	+2.5range +1.1 to +3.6Sufficient evidence
BJ Davis	54.7%	+2.8range +1.6 to +4.0Sufficient evidence
Miles Heide	47.2%	+2.4range +1.2 to +3.5Sufficient evidence
Taj DeGourville	47.0%	+1.6range +0.4 to +3.0Sufficient evidence
Sean Newman Jr.	38.2%	+1.9range +0.8 to +2.8Sufficient evidence
Elzie Harrington	35.7%	+0.8range -0.2 to +1.8Sufficient evidence
Magoon Gwath	33.8%	+1.1range -0.1 to +2.4Sufficient evidence
Tae Simmons	33.7%	+2.6range +1.4 to +4.1Sufficient evidence
Pharaoh Compton	33.2%	+3.2range +1.8 to +4.5Sufficient evidence
Jeremiah Oden	32.5%	+0.3range -0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence
Thokbor Majak	1.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Cam Lawin	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Raymar Gonzales	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +11.4range +10.6 to +12.2Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

11 valued players hold 99.5% of on-court time. 3 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 0.5%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 0.0%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value