San Diego St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for San Diego St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Reese Dixon-Waters	71.8%	+1.6range +0.4 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.5 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	$135KspeculativeLoading	$44K to $325KLoading
Miles Byrd	69.5%	+2.5range +1.1 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	+5.4range +4.6 to +5.9Sufficient evidence	$160KspeculativeLoading	$63K to $395KLoading
BJ Davis	54.7%	+2.8range +1.6 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	+4.4range +3.8 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	$150KspeculativeLoading	$60K to $365KLoading
Miles Heide	47.2%	+2.4range +1.2 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.1 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$115KspeculativeLoading	$44K to $280KLoading
Taj DeGourville	47.0%	+1.6range +0.4 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+3.4range +2.9 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$87KspeculativeLoading	$28K to $220KLoading
Sean Newman Jr.	38.2%	+1.9range +0.8 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.5 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$78KspeculativeLoading	$30K to $190KLoading
Elzie Harrington	35.7%	+0.8range -0.2 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.1 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$53KspeculativeLoading	$16K to $135KLoading
Magoon Gwath	33.8%	+1.1range -0.1 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+2.3range +2.0 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	$58KspeculativeLoading	$17K to $150KLoading
Tae Simmons	33.7%	+2.6range +1.4 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.3 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$92KspeculativeLoading	$34K to $230KLoading
Pharaoh Compton	33.2%	+3.2range +1.8 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.4 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$100KspeculativeLoading	$42K to $250KLoading
Jeremiah Oden	32.5%	+0.3range -0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+2.0range +1.8 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	$40KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $115KLoading
Thokbor Majak	1.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$8Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$3K to $19KLoading
Cam Lawin	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$8Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$3K to $19KLoading
Raymar Gonzales	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$8Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$3K to $19KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $1.15M; 80% Range $505K to $2.55M
Tier: Mid and high major; low to medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $1.05M to $1.20M; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Reese Dixon-Waters	71.8%	$135K	$44K to $325K	12.6%	$120K to $140K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Miles Byrd	69.5%	$160K	$63K to $395K	14.2%	$145K to $170K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
BJ Davis	54.7%	$150K	$60K to $365K	12.4%	$135K to $155K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Miles Heide	47.2%	$115K	$44K to $280K	9.8%	$100K to $120K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Taj DeGourville	47.0%	$87K	$28K to $220K	8.4%	$78K to $91K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sean Newman Jr.	38.2%	$78K	$30K to $190K	7.3%	$71K to $82K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Elzie Harrington	35.7%	$53K	$16K to $135K	5.4%	$47K to $55K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Magoon Gwath	33.8%	$58K	$17K to $150K	5.7%	$52K to $61K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tae Simmons	33.7%	$92K	$34K to $230K	7.6%	$82K to $96K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Pharaoh Compton	33.2%	$100K	$42K to $250K	8.3%	$91K to $105K	$8K	Sufficient evidence
Jeremiah Oden	32.5%	$40K	$10K to $115K	4.2%	$36K to $42K	$8K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Thokbor Majak	1.6%	$8K	$3K to $19K	0.7%	$7K to $8K	$8K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Cam Lawin	0.6%	$8K	$3K to $19K	0.7%	$7K to $8K	$8K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Raymar Gonzales	0.4%	$8K	$3K to $19K	0.7%	$7K to $8K	$8K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$1.15M	$505K to $2.55M	100%	$1.05M to $1.20M	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, San Diego State University (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$15,269,898
Men's basketball expenses	$9,110,688
Athletics department expenses	$89,827,012
Athletics department revenue	$89,827,012

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$15,269,898	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$9,110,688	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	4
3 or more days	26

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	3

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology