Cal St. Fullerton

BW · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 218 · Raw net -2.5 · Tempo 75.5 · 32 Division I games · Through 2026-03-13

Record: 16–16; 16 wins
AdjNet: -1.9β; rank 203 of 365
AdjO: 107.2β; rank 198 of 365
AdjD: 109.1β; rank 201 of 365
AdjT: 73.2β
SOS: 0.2β; rank 151 of 363
NCSOS: 4.7β
WAB: -8.7β; rank 201 of 363
RR: 1.7β
Exp. W: 14.3β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	106.4218	108.9193	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	51.4181	54.3307	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	15.280	19.535	16.7
Offensive rebound %	24.6345	28.380	30.6
FTA / FGA %	37.8106	35.3188	35.0
Shooting
3P%	34.2163	34.0186	33.9
2P%	51.4196	57.1343	51.7
FT%	71.6218	75.3321	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	43.1	46.4	39.5
Assists / FGM %	55.2	59.7	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	8.6	8.5	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	34.1	35.0	31.4
2-pointers %	45.1	45.3	48.8
Free throws %	20.9	19.7	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 9.0
Top Three Share of Minutes: 43%
Bench Share of Minutes: 35%
Players with Logged Minutes: 12

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-08	Wyoming	L 82–92	84.0	Away	0–1
11-10	California	L 65–93	77.2	Away	0–2
11-15	Pacific	L 73–85	78.3	Home	0–3
11-21	Portland	L 85–103	78.3	Away	0–4
11-22	St. Thomas (MN)	W 88–80	76.5	Neutral	1–4
11-23	Northern Colo.	L 93–97	80.8	Neutral	1–5
11-29	Pepperdine	W 83–69	70.3	Home	2–5
12-04	Cal Poly	L 91–94	85.5	Home	2–6
12-07	Hawaii	L 59–69	72.8	—	2–7
12-13	Denver	W 105–86	76.7	Away	3–7
12-21	Oklahoma St.	L 89–94	79.6	Away	3–8
12-28	SMU	L 63–110	76.2	Away	3–9
01-01	UC Santa Barbara	W 95–84	76.2	Home	4–9
01-03	UC Irvine	L 64–86	69.4	Home	4–10
01-08	UC San Diego	W 88–71	69.5	Away	5–10
01-10	CSUN	W 86–79	77.9	Home	6–10
01-15	UC Davis	L 69–74	74.5	Away	6–11
01-17	UC Riverside	L 72–81	77.6	Away	6–12
01-22	Long Beach St.	W 71–61	68.1	Home	7–12
01-24	Cal Poly	W 93–78	73.7	Away	8–12
01-31	UC Santa Barbara	L 69–83	73.3	Away	8–13
02-05	UC Riverside	W 78–72	75.4	Home	9–13
02-07	CSU Bakersfield	W 82–66	74.2	Home	10–13
02-12	Long Beach St.	W 86–82	74.2	Away	11–13
02-14	UC Irvine	L 65–86	73.5	Away	11–14
02-19	UC Davis	W 93–92	66.6	Home	12–14
02-21	CSU Bakersfield	W 88–80	73.4	Away	13–14
02-28	Hawaii	L 85–87	71.9	Home	13–15
03-05	UC San Diego	W 75–71	69.8	Home	14–15
03-07	CSUN	W 90–77	82.7	Away	15–15
03-12	UC Davis	W 82–70	82.9	Neutral	16–15
03-13	Hawaii	L 63–78	73.5	Neutral	16–16

Roster · 12 players

Player logs in 32 of 32 team games

Team roster, per 40 minutes
Column groups	Minutes			Per 40 Minutes							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Josh Ward	32	31:11	77.9%	18.7	5.8	4.5	2.2	0.6	2.6	3.2	107–207	51.7%	43–140	30.7%	123–164	75.0%	49.4%	55.6%	47.3%	5	28:20 −2:51	70.8%	13.6 −1.0
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro	31	29:19	71.0%	15.8	6.2	2.9	1.4	0.5	1.5	3.8	75–152	49.3%	34–118	28.8%	107–120	89.2%	46.7%	55.6%	44.4%	5	29:08 −0:11	72.8%	9.6 −2.0
Christian Williams	32	26:43	66.8%	14.1	5.2	3.1	2.9	0.2	2.2	3.7	43–87	49.4%	62–167	37.1%	30–36	83.3%	53.5%	56.0%	14.2%	5	28:27 +1:44	71.1%	12.8 +3.4
Bryce Cofield	32	21:17	53.2%	18.4	8.9	4.1	1.4	0.8	4.2	4.2	106–215	49.3%	6–38	15.8%†	84–145	57.9%	45.5%	49.6%	57.3%	5	19:04 −2:13	47.7%	6.0 −3.8
Landon Seaman	32	21:00	52.5%	22.3	6.2	2.2	1.0	0.8	2.0	3.3	107–176	60.8%	31–87	35.6%	68–109	62.4%	58.4%	60.3%	41.4%	5	21:33 +0:33	53.9%	9.8 −1.9
Kendrick De Luna	32	17:37	44.1%	10.4	5.7	2.1	1.1	1.7	2.0	5.2	49–103	47.6%	1–1	100.0%†	46–66	69.7%	48.6%	55.2%	63.5%	5	17:18 −0:19	43.3%	3.2 −1.4
Jaden Henderson	30	17:19	40.6%	16.1	5.7	3.7	1.1	0.3	2.4	3.2	49–96	51.0%	33–92	35.9%	12–16	75.0%†	52.4%	53.6%	8.5%	5	15:25 −1:55	38.5%	7.2 +0.2
Kiwane Garris Jr	28	15:33	34.0%	19.9	8.4	1.5	1.6	0.1	1.2	3.4	37–67	55.2%	33–80	41.3%	43–61	70.5%	58.8%	62.1%	41.5%	5	17:10 +1:37	42.9%	8.6 +0.9
Bailey Nunn	21	18:37	30.5%	10.8	4.3	2.8	1.3	0.1	1.2	4.1	3–17	17.6%†	27–63	42.9%	19–22	86.4%†	54.4%†	59.1%†	27.5%†	5	22:23 +3:45	55.9%	8.2 +3.2
Davis White	26	12:46	25.9%	8.8	4.1	1.0	0.8	0.1	1.7	4.8	3–5	60.0%†	21–65	32.3%	4–7	57.1%†	49.3%†	49.9%†	10.0%†	1	2:02 −10:44	1.0%	0.0 −2.8
Benjamin WinkerFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	6	2:14	1.0%	0.0	15.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.0	0–1	0.0%†	0–0	—	0–3	0.0%†	0.0%†	0.0%†	300.0%†	1	0:00 −2:14	0.0%	0.0 0.0
Matthew QuinlanFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	6	1:00	0.5%	19.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0–0	—	1–3	33.3%†	0–0	—	50.0%†	50.0%†	0.0%†	1	0:00 −1:00	0.0%	0.0 −0.5
Team, games with logs · per 40 team minutes	32 games			80.3	34.4	15.0	not published	2.8	11.5	not published	579–1126	51.4%	292–854	34.2%	536–749	71.6%	51.4%	55.6%	37.8%
Sum of players				80.3	30.6	15.0	7.9	2.8	10.8	19.0	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0.0	+3.8	0.0	not published	0.0	+0.7	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $245K; 80% Range $90K to $650K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $230K to $250K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Josh Ward	77.6%	$48K	$14K to $150K	18.4%	$45K to $50K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro	73.2%	$23K	$3K to $73K	12.0%	$21K to $23K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Christian Williams	65.2%	$39K	$12K to $125K	15.3%	$37K to $40K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Landon Seaman	53.3%	$20K	$3K to $67K	9.6%	$19K to $21K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bryce Cofield	52.3%	$17K	$2K to $57K	8.8%	$16K to $17K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kendrick De Luna	43.3%	$13K	$2K to $46K	6.9%	$12K to $13K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaden Henderson	41.7%	$13K	$2K to $47K	6.9%	$12K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bailey Nunn	33.0%	$16K	$4K to $52K	7.0%	$15K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kiwane Garris Jr	32.8%	$16K	$4K to $50K	7.0%	$15K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Davis White	25.8%	$4K	$1K to $15K	1.2%	$4K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Benjamin Winker	1.2%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Matthew Quinlan	0.6%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$245K	$90K to $650K	100%	$230K to $250K	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, California State University-Fullerton (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,214,622	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,214,622
Athletics department expenses	$26,422,865
Athletics department revenue	$26,422,865

Team Totalsβ

Season per 40 minutes, 32 games, 2,415 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Per 40 uses 1280 game minutes, 5 per overtime period. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	80.3	82.2
Field goals made	27.2	28.2
Field goals attempted	61.9	60.8
3-pointers made	9.1	9.6
3-pointers attempted	26.7	28.2
Free throws made	16.8	16.2
Free throws attempted	23.4	21.5
Offensive rebounds	9.3	9.9
Defensive rebounds	25.1	28.6
Total rebounds	34.4	38.5
Assists	15.0	16.8
Blocks	2.8	3.0
Turnovers	11.5	14.7
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 253.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 607.
Minutes (derived)	200.0	not published

32 of 32 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,570	2,570	0	±12.8	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	871	871	0	±4.4	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,980	1,980	0	±9.9	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	292	292	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	854	854	0	±4.3	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	536	536	0	±2.7	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	749	749	0	±3.7	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	1,102	980	+122	±88.2	0
Assists	Reconciled	481	481	0	±2.4	0
Blocks	Reconciled	90	90	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	367	346	+21	±11.0	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	253	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	607	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	6,400	6,375	+24.7	±128.0	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Josh Ward	77.6%	+1.3range -0.0 to +3.0Sufficient evidence
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro	73.2%	-0.1range -1.1 to +1.1Sufficient evidence
Christian Williams	65.2%	+1.3range +0.1 to +2.6Sufficient evidence
Landon Seaman	53.3%	+0.2range -1.3 to +1.6Sufficient evidence
Bryce Cofield	52.3%	-0.1range -1.4 to +1.4Sufficient evidence
Kendrick De Luna	43.3%	-0.4range -1.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence
Jaden Henderson	41.7%	-0.3range -1.3 to +1.0Sufficient evidence
Bailey Nunn	33.0%	+0.7range -0.7 to +1.8Sufficient evidence
Kiwane Garris Jr	32.8%	+0.5range -0.6 to +2.2Sufficient evidence
Davis White	25.8%	-2.8range -3.8 to -1.6Sufficient evidence
Benjamin Winker	1.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Matthew Quinlan	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +9.7range +8.8 to +10.6Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

10 valued players hold 99.6% of on-court time. 2 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 0.4%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 0.0%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value