CS Fullerton

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for CS Fullerton, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Josh Ward	77.6%	+1.3range -0.0 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+5.8range +5.1 to +6.6Sufficient evidence	$48KspeculativeLoading	$14K to $150KLoading
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro	73.2%	-0.1range -1.1 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+4.9range +4.3 to +5.5Sufficient evidence	$23KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $73KLoading
Christian Williams	65.2%	+1.3range +0.1 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+5.0range +4.4 to +5.6Sufficient evidence	$39KspeculativeLoading	$12K to $125KLoading
Landon Seaman	53.3%	+0.2range -1.3 to +1.6Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.1 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	$20KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $67KLoading
Bryce Cofield	52.3%	-0.1range -1.4 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +2.9 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$17KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $57KLoading
Kendrick De Luna	43.3%	-0.4range -1.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+2.9range +2.4 to +3.4Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $46KLoading
Jaden Henderson	41.7%	-0.3range -1.3 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.4 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $47KLoading
Bailey Nunn	33.0%	+0.7range -0.7 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $52KLoading
Kiwane Garris Jr	32.8%	+0.5range -0.6 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.1 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$4K to $50KLoading
Davis White	25.8%	-2.8range -3.8 to -1.6Sufficient evidence	+1.3range +1.0 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $15KLoading
Benjamin Winker	1.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading
Matthew Quinlan	0.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $6KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $245K; 80% Range $90K to $650K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $230K to $250K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Josh Ward	77.6%	$48K	$14K to $150K	18.4%	$45K to $50K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro	73.2%	$23K	$3K to $73K	12.0%	$21K to $23K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Christian Williams	65.2%	$39K	$12K to $125K	15.3%	$37K to $40K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Landon Seaman	53.3%	$20K	$3K to $67K	9.6%	$19K to $21K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bryce Cofield	52.3%	$17K	$2K to $57K	8.8%	$16K to $17K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kendrick De Luna	43.3%	$13K	$2K to $46K	6.9%	$12K to $13K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaden Henderson	41.7%	$13K	$2K to $47K	6.9%	$12K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bailey Nunn	33.0%	$16K	$4K to $52K	7.0%	$15K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kiwane Garris Jr	32.8%	$16K	$4K to $50K	7.0%	$15K to $16K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Davis White	25.8%	$4K	$1K to $15K	1.2%	$4K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Benjamin Winker	1.2%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Matthew Quinlan	0.6%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$245K	$90K to $650K	100%	$230K to $250K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, California State University-Fullerton (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,214,622	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,214,622
Athletics department expenses	$26,422,865
Athletics department revenue	$26,422,865

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (88%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

4 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,214,622	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,214,622	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched through an NCES IPEDS institution alias, with state and home-venue city agreeing.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	3
2 days	10
3 or more days	18

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.6
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	2
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology