Cal Poly
BW · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 253 · Raw net -5.2 · Tempo 76.1 · 31 Division I games · Through 2026-03-11
Scouting Report
| Category | Offense | Defense | D-I Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | |||
| Efficiency / 100 poss. | 106.5216 | 111.7267 | 108.5 |
| Four Factors | |||
| Effective FG% | 51.5170 | 53.8291 | 51.4 |
| TO / 100 poss. | 19.9346 | 16.2209 | 16.7 |
| Offensive rebound % | 30.0202 | 29.6141 | 30.6 |
| FTA / FGA % | 34.9182 | 34.1154 | 35.0 |
| Shooting | |||
| 3P% | 33.0228 | 34.7230 | 33.9 |
| 2P% | 53.796 | 55.0310 | 51.7 |
| FT% | 78.512 | 72.4179 | 72.5 |
| Style | |||
| 3PA / FGA % | 52.6 | 40.8 | 39.5 |
| Assists / FGM % | 49.6 | 52.5 | 52.6 |
| Blocks / opp. 2PA % | 5.7 | 11.4 | 9.5 |
| Point Distribution | |||
| 3-pointers % | 40.0 | 32.1 | 31.4 |
| 2-pointers % | 39.0 | 49.2 | 48.8 |
| Free throws % | 21.0 | 18.7 | 19.8 |
Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.
Rotation Depth
- Effective Rotation Size
- 9.4
- Top Three Share of Minutes
- 45%
- Bench Share of Minutes
- 35%
- Players with Logged Minutes
- 15
Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions
Schedule and Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | Poss. | Site | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-03 | Southern California | L 64–94 | 82.8 | Away | 0–1 |
| 11-08 | Seattle U | W 73–71 | 76.1 | Away | 1–1 |
| 11-12 | Colorado St. | L 79–93 | 75.0 | Away | 1–2 |
| 11-14 | Montana | L 82–90 | 80.9 | Away | 1–3 |
| 11-20 | Utah | W 92–85 | 83.6 | Away | 2–3 |
| 11-24 | Northern Ariz. | L 87–93 | 79.4 | Away | 2–4 |
| 11-25 | Southeast Mo. St. | L 68–84 | 74.8 | Neutral | 2–5 |
| 12-04 | Cal St. Fullerton | W 94–91 | 85.5 | Away | 3–5 |
| 12-06 | UC Riverside | L 84–88 | 71.4 | Home | 3–6 |
| 12-16 | Montana St. | L 80–83 | 71.8 | Home | 3–7 |
| 12-19 | UCLA | L 87–108 | 78.6 | Away | 3–8 |
| 12-21 | Idaho | L 80–83 1OT | 82.9 | Home | 3–9 |
| 01-01 | UC San Diego | W 67–65 | 66.4 | Home | 4–9 |
| 01-03 | Long Beach St. | L 66–74 | 71.0 | Away | 4–10 |
| 01-08 | CSUN | L 90–95 | 80.9 | Away | 4–11 |
| 01-10 | UC Davis | W 84–78 | 73.9 | Home | 5–11 |
| 01-15 | Hawaii | L 66–86 | 77.9 | Home | 5–12 |
| 01-22 | UC Santa Barbara | L 67–107 | 66.9 | Away | 5–13 |
| 01-24 | Cal St. Fullerton | L 78–93 | 73.7 | Home | 5–14 |
| 01-29 | CSU Bakersfield | W 104–79 | 77.6 | Away | 6–14 |
| 01-31 | UC Riverside | W 94–87 | 74.7 | Away | 7–14 |
| 02-05 | CSUN | L 96–97 | 79.7 | Home | 7–15 |
| 02-07 | UC Davis | L 58–67 | 69.4 | Away | 7–16 |
| 02-12 | UC Irvine | W 79–73 | 79.6 | Home | 8–16 |
| 02-14 | UC Santa Barbara | W 89–79 | 66.7 | Home | 9–16 |
| 02-20 | Hawaii | W 86–75 | 82.4 | — | 10–16 |
| 02-26 | Long Beach St. | W 102–92 | 80.3 | Home | 11–16 |
| 02-28 | UC San Diego | L 64–80 | 70.2 | Away | 11–17 |
| 03-05 | UC Irvine | L 85–107 | 78.6 | Away | 11–18 |
| 03-07 | CSU Bakersfield | W 108–76 | 82.5 | Home | 12–18 |
| 03-11 | UC San Diego | L 69–72 | 73.2 | Neutral | 12–19 |
Roster · 15 players
Player logs in 31 of 31 team games
| Column groups | Minutes | Season Totals | Shooting | Last Five Team Games | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | MPG | Team Min% | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | 2P | 2P% | 3P | 3P% | FT | FT% | eFG% | TS% | FTA/FGA | G | MPG | Min% | Pts/G |
| Hamad Mousa | 30 | 31:35 | 76.1% | 610 | 186 | 58 | 29 | 11 | 80 | 58 | 105–205 | 51.2% | 76–209 | 36.4% | 172–195 | 88.2% | 52.9% | 61.0% | 47.1% | 5 | 30:39 −0:56 | 76.6% | 21.4 +1.1 |
| Peter Bandelj | 30 | 30:48 | 74.2% | 380 | 117 | 95 | 37 | 5 | 71 | 62 | 60–127 | 47.2% | 53–157 | 33.8% | 101–119 | 84.9% | 49.1% | 56.5% | 41.9% | 5 | 29:32 −1:16 | 73.8% | 8.4 −4.3 |
| Cayden Ward | 31 | 29:43 | 74.0% | 443 | 198 | 51 | 27 | 6 | 93 | 90 | 94–161 | 58.4% | 50–162 | 30.9% | 105–140 | 75.0% | 52.3% | 57.6% | 43.3% | 5 | 30:11 +0:28 | 75.5% | 17.0 +2.7 |
| Guzman Vasilic | 28 | 23:17 | 52.4% | 217 | 63 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 24 | 57 | 18–35 | 51.4% | 54–143 | 37.8% | 19–25 | 76.0% | 55.6% | 57.4% | 14.0% | 5 | 21:54 −1:23 | 54.8% | 9.4 +1.7 |
| Jake Davis | 30 | 20:51 | 50.3% | 164 | 97 | 50 | 33 | 5 | 39 | 62 | 30–62 | 48.4% | 26–97 | 26.8% | 26–36 | 72.2% | 43.4% | 46.9% | 22.6% | 5 | 16:42 −4:09 | 41.7% | 2.8 −2.7 |
| Austin Goode | 30 | 16:05 | 38.7% | 150 | 73 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 22 | 69 | 33–59 | 55.9% | 24–77 | 31.2% | 12–17 | 70.6%† | 50.7% | 52.3% | 12.5% | 5 | 24:06 +8:01 | 60.3% | 7.2 +2.2 |
| Ali Assran | 29 | 12:27 | 29.0% | 103 | 94 | 21 | 12 | 17 | 38 | 71 | 30–56 | 53.6%† | 5–24 | 20.8%† | 28–47 | 59.6% | 46.9%† | 51.2%† | 58.8%† | 5 | 10:01 −2:27 | 25.0% | 3.6 0.0 |
| Troy Plumtree | 28 | 12:33 | 28.2% | 139 | 67 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 31 | 43 | 52–79 | 65.8% | 7–30 | 23.3%† | 14–19 | 73.7%† | 57.3% | 59.2% | 17.4% | 5 | 13:36 +1:02 | 34.0% | 6.0 +1.0 |
| Kieran Elliott | 17 | 17:40 | 24.1% | 86 | 54 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 28 | 23–40 | 57.5%† | 7–19 | 36.8%† | 19–23 | 82.6%† | 56.8%† | 62.2%† | 39.0%† | — | — | — | — |
| Jackson Mosley | 16 | 12:58 | 16.7% | 92 | 19 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 17–33 | 51.5%† | 14–48 | 29.2%† | 16–22 | 72.7%† | 46.9%† | 50.7%† | 27.2%† | 5 | 11:46 −1:12 | 29.4% | 4.8 −1.0 |
| Luka Tarlac | 11 | 14:51 | 13.1% | 27 | 19 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 19 | 9–17 | 52.9%† | 1–10 | 10.0%† | 6–13 | 46.2%† | 38.9%† | 41.3%† | 48.1%† | — | — | — | — |
| Jess Esso EssisFew games | 7 | 17:24 | 9.8% | 60 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 8–13 | 61.5%† | 12–29 | 41.4%† | 8–9 | 88.9%† | 61.9%† | 65.3%† | 21.4%† | 2 | 17:36 +0:12 | 17.6% | 8.5 −0.1 |
| Aaron Price, Jr. | 19 | 5:39 | 8.6% | 35 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 12–23 | 52.2%† | 3–6 | 50.0%† | 2–4 | 50.0%† | 56.9%† | 56.9%† | 13.8%† | 3 | 4:21 −1:18 | 6.5% | 2.7 +0.8 |
| Jason ScottFew gamesUnder 100 minutes | 7 | 5:05 | 2.9% | 15 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1–4 | 25.0%† | 4–6 | 66.7%† | 1–4 | 25.0%† | 70.0%† | 63.8%† | 40.0%† | — | — | — | — |
| Eric BrownFew gamesUnder 100 minutes | 4 | 3:25 | 1.1% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0–2 | 0.0%† | 0–0 | — | 1–2 | 50.0%† | 0.0%† | 17.4%† | 100.0%† | 1 | 6:47 +3:22 | 3.4% | 0.0 −0.3 |
| Team, games with logs · season totals | 31 games | 2522 | 1172 | 411 | not published | 67 | 471 | not published | 492–916 | 53.7% | 336–1017 | 33.0% | 530–675 | 78.5% | 51.5% | 56.5% | 34.9% | ||||||
| Sum of players | 2522 | 1035 | 411 | 198 | 67 | 455 | 610 | Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals. | |||||||||||||||
| Residual: team minus players | 0 | +137 | 0 | not published | 0 | +16 | not published | ||||||||||||||||
G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.
Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β
Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.
- Team Pool
- $300K
- 80% Range $110K to $790K
- Tier
- Low and other
- low evidence
- Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $240K to $320K
- Scenario medians
- Players with Figures
- 15
- 2 floor only
| Player | Poss. Share | Speculative Best Guess | 80% Range | Range Graphic | Median % of Team Pool | Scenarios Z1 to Z4 | Floor Part | Evidence and Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamad Mousa | 75.9% | $68K | $22K to $200K | 21.6% | $54K to $73K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Peter Bandelj | 74.0% | $57K | $17K to $175K | 18.2% | $46K to $61K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Cayden Ward | 73.8% | $7K | $1K to $48K | 2.9% | $6K to $8K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Guzman Vasilic | 53.9% | $60K | $18K to $195K | 18.6% | $48K to $64K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Jake Davis | 50.9% | $17K | $2K to $61K | 7.6% | $14K to $18K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Austin Goode | 37.5% | $6K | $1K to $30K | 2.9% | $5K to $7K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Ali Assran | 29.6% | $6K | $1K to $26K | 2.8% | $5K to $7K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Troy Plumtree | 27.8% | $9K | $2K to $33K | 4.1% | $8K to $10K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Kieran Elliott | 25.2% | $10K | $2K to $33K | 4.2% | $8K to $10K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Jackson Mosley | 16.7% | $6K | $1K to $20K | 2.6% | $5K to $6K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Luka Tarlac | 12.4% | $3K | $1K to $11K | 1.0% | $3K in all four | $2K | Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Jess Esso Essis | 9.6% | $4K | $1K to $13K | 1.6% | $3K to $4K | $2K | Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Aaron Price, Jr. | 8.8% | $3K | $1K to $11K | 1.3% | $3K to $4K | $2K | Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Jason Scott | 3.1% | $2K | $1K to $5K | 0.7% | $2K in all four | $2K | Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Eric Brown | 0.8% | $2K | $1K to $5K | 0.7% | $2K in all four | $2K | Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Team Pool | — | $300K | $110K to $790K | 100% | $240K to $320K | — |
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)
Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.
| Measure | School-Reported Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Men's basketball revenue | $2,537,259 | Equals expenses (budget identity) |
| Men's basketball expenses | $2,537,259 | |
| Athletics department expenses | $45,535,245 | |
| Athletics department revenue | $49,208,831 |
Team Totalsβ
Season totals, 31 games, 2,368 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions
| Statistic | Team | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 2,522 | 2,645 |
| Field goals made | 828 | 934 |
| Field goals attempted | 1,933 | 1,999 |
| 3-pointers made | 336 | 283 |
| 3-pointers attempted | 1,017 | 816 |
| Free throws made | 530 | 494 |
| Free throws attempted | 675 | 682 |
| Offensive rebounds | 349 | 346 |
| Defensive rebounds | 823 | 816 |
| Total rebounds | 1,172 | 1,162 |
| Assists | 411 | 490 |
| Blocks | 67 | 104 |
| Turnovers | 471 | 384 |
| Steals | No team figure. Players sum to 198. | |
| Personal fouls | No team figure. Players sum to 610. | |
| Minutes (derived) | 6,225 | not published |
31 of 31 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions
| Statistic | Status | Team Total, Logged Games | Sum of Players | Residual | Tolerance | Team Total, Games Without Logs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | Reconciled | 2,522 | 2,522 | 0 | ±12.6 | 0 |
| Field goals made | Reconciled | 828 | 828 | 0 | ±4.1 | 0 |
| Field goals attempted | Reconciled | 1,933 | 1,933 | 0 | ±9.7 | 0 |
| 3-pointers made | Reconciled | 336 | 336 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| 3-pointers attempted | Reconciled | 1,017 | 1,017 | 0 | ±5.1 | 0 |
| Free throws made | Reconciled | 530 | 530 | 0 | ±2.6 | 0 |
| Free throws attempted | Reconciled | 675 | 675 | 0 | ±3.4 | 0 |
| Offensive rebounds | No player split | not published | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| Defensive rebounds | No player split | not published | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| Total rebounds | Residual shown | 1,172 | 1,035 | +137 | ±93.8 | 0 |
| Assists | Reconciled | 411 | 411 | 0 | ±2.1 | 0 |
| Blocks | Reconciled | 67 | 67 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | Residual shown | 471 | 455 | +16 | ±14.1 | 0 |
| Steals | No team figure | not published | 198 | not published | not published | not published |
| Personal fouls | No team figure | not published | 610 | not published | not published | not published |
| Minutes (derived) | Reconciled | 6,225 | 6,215 | +9.7 | ±124.5 | 0 |
Model-Implied Player Valueβ
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.
| Player | Poss. Share | Net and Rangeβ | Range Graphic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamad Mousa | 75.9% | +1.9range +0.8 to +3.2Sufficient evidence | |
| Peter Bandelj | 74.0% | +1.6range +0.4 to +2.8Sufficient evidence | |
| Cayden Ward | 73.8% | -2.6range -4.0 to -1.1Sufficient evidence | |
| Guzman Vasilic | 53.9% | +2.7range +1.1 to +4.0Sufficient evidence | |
| Jake Davis | 50.9% | -0.3range -1.6 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | |
| Austin Goode | 37.5% | -1.8range -3.1 to -0.6Sufficient evidence | |
| Ali Assran | 29.6% | -1.6range -3.0 to -0.3Sufficient evidence | |
| Troy Plumtree | 27.8% | -0.5range -1.4 to +0.5Sufficient evidence | |
| Kieran Elliott | 25.2% | -0.2range -1.2 to +0.7Sufficient evidence | |
| Jackson Mosley | 16.7% | -0.7range -1.6 to +0.2Sufficient evidence | |
| Luka Tarlac | 12.4% | -2.9range -3.9 to -1.7Limited evidence | |
| Jess Esso Essis | 9.6% | -0.9range -1.5 to -0.2Limited evidence | |
| Aaron Price, Jr. | 8.8% | -1.3range -2.0 to -0.6Limited evidence | |
| Jason Scott | 3.1% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | |
| Eric Brown | 0.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence |
Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β
Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology
- Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions
- +9.4range +8.5 to +10.3Sufficient evidence
200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.
13 valued players hold 99.2% of on-court time. 2 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 0.8%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 6.1%.