Cayden Ward
Cal Poly · 2025–26 · 31 available game logs · Speculative compensation · Model-implied values by season · Linked seasons and observed career performance
Logged performance
921:19 minutes logged
- Games logged
- 31
- Minutes per game
- 29:43
- Points per game
- 14.3
- Rebounds / assists per game
- 6.4 / 1.6
| Basis | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per game | 14.3 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Per 40 minutes | 19.2 | 8.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| Season totals | 443 | 198 | 51 | 27 | 6 | 93 | 90 |
| Shot | Made–att. | Pct | Att/G | Att/40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FG | 144–323 | 44.6% | 10.4 | 14.0 |
| 2P | 94–161 | 58.4% | 5.2 | 7.0 |
| 3P | 50–162 | 30.9% | 5.2 | 7.0 |
| FT | 105–140 | 75.0% | 4.5 | 6.1 |
| eFG% | Estimated TS% | 3PA / FGA | FTA / FGA | AST / TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52.3% | 57.6% | 50.2% | 43.3% | 0.55 |
Accepted logged appearances only; absent games are not zeroes. † marks a rate on fewer attempts than the floor (field goal 100, three-point 50, free throw 25). Floors are descriptive, not model output. Definitions
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
Cal Poly · Low and other · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.
- Speculative best guess
- $7K
- 80% range $1K to $48K
- Median share of team pool
- 2.9%
- team pool $300K, 80% range $110K to $790K
- Across scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $6K to $8K
- the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
- Floor part
- $2K
- shared by every player with possessions
- Possession share
- 73.8%
- Sufficient evidence
- Range driven by assumption, not data
Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.
Budget anchor. Tier prior from anonymous surveys and sources, scaled so that all non-Power budgets sum to the national total the College Sports Commission reported paid for 2025-26 ($1,770,453,776 over 307 schools) less the Power 4 total, times a men's basketball share; weak anchor.
Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks
Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.
Cal Poly: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
Model-implied value and speculative compensation by seasonβ
| Season | Team | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range | Split role | Net | Range | Evidence | Range graphic. Position on one axis | Offense | Defense | Wins above replacement | On-court possessions | Sample and flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Cal Poly | $7Kspeculative | $1K to $48K | descriptive: not used in fit or gates | -2.6 | -4.0 to -1.1 | Sufficient evidence | +0.6 | -3.2 | +3.4range +2.6 to +4.1 | 3,178 | Season detail | |
| 2025 | Cal Poly | None: no budget that season | — | evaluation: examined, post hoc | -1.8 | -2.6 to -0.7 | Sufficient evidence | +0.9 | -2.7 | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.4 | 1,199 | Season detail |
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Vertical line: zero. This table makes no claim about change over time, so it has no change column or trend. Seasons 2011 to 2017 have a point value but no range, so none is shown. Compensation exists for 2025–26 only; earlier rows say that no budget existed. NIL methodology · Compensation methodology
Game log
| Measure | Graphic | Last five | Listed games | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 30:11 | 29:43 | 18:48–42:24 | |
| Points | 17.0 | 14.3 | 5.0–28.0 | |
| Game eFG% | 55.8% | 51.1% | 14.3%–75.0% |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | FG | 3P | FT | eFG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | UC San Diego | L 69–72 | 31:51 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 6-6 | 38.9% |
| 2026-03-07 | CSU Bakersfield | W 108–76 | 26:40 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 66.7% |
| 2026-03-05 | UC Irvine | L 85–107 | 30:24 | 16 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6-10 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 65.0% |
| 2026-02-28 | UC San Diego | L 64–80 | 31:48 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 41.7% |
| 2026-02-26 | Long Beach St. | W 102–92 | 30:12 | 28 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11-18 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 66.7% |
| 2026-02-20 | Hawaii | W 86–75 | 32:22 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8-12 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 70.8% |
| 2026-02-14 · NCAA | UC Santa Barbara | W 89–79 | 33:00 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 45.0% |
| 2026-02-12 | UC Irvine | W 79–73 | 26:25 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 6-11 | 56.3% |
| 2026-02-07 | UC Davis | L 58–67 | 24:46 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4-12 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 45.8% |
| 2026-02-05 | CSUN | L 96–97 | 31:59 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 37.5% |
| 2026-01-31 | UC Riverside | W 94–87 | 27:20 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 35.7% |
| 2026-01-29 | CSU Bakersfield | W 104–79 | 27:20 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 75.0% |
| 2026-01-24 | Cal St. Fullerton | L 78–93 | 32:32 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7-14 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 64.3% |
| 2026-01-22 · NCAA | UC Santa Barbara | L 67–107 | 25:30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-15 | Hawaii | L 66–86 | 33:57 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4-12 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 37.5% |
| 2026-01-10 | UC Davis | W 84–78 | 24:55 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 8-8 | 31.3% |
| 2026-01-08 | CSUN | L 90–95 | 36:13 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6-13 | 4-6 | 5-8 | 61.5% |
| 2026-01-03 | Long Beach St. | L 66–74 | 30:05 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 6-8 | 14.3% |
| 2026-01-01 | UC San Diego | W 67–65 | 33:04 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2-11 | 1-7 | 3-4 | 22.7% |
| 2025-12-21 | Idaho | L 80–83 | 42:24 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7-12 | 2-7 | 6-7 | 66.7% |
| 2025-12-19 | UCLA | L 87–108 | 32:53 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 9-9 | 60.0% |
| 2025-12-16 | Montana St. | L 80–83 | 31:42 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8-15 | 2-5 | 7-8 | 60.0% |
| 2025-12-06 | UC Riverside | L 84–88 | 33:37 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4-13 | 1-6 | 3-5 | 34.6% |
| 2025-12-04 | Cal St. Fullerton | W 94–91 | 29:26 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 44.4% |
| 2025-11-25 | Southeast Mo. St. | L 68–84 | 25:03 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 60.0% |
| 2025-11-24 | Northern Ariz. | L 87–93 | 20:31 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 58.3% |
| 2025-11-20 | Utah | W 92–85 | 32:17 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 9-14 | 3-5 | 7-11 | 75.0% |
| 2025-11-14 | Montana | L 82–90 | 24:38 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7-13 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 57.7% |
| 2025-11-12 | Colorado St. | L 79–93 | 28:52 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 50.0% |
| 2025-11-08 | Seattle U | W 73–71 | 30:45 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 50.0% |
| 2025-11-03 | Southern California | L 64–94 | 18:48 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4-11 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 40.9% |