Lipscomb

ASUN · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 169 · Raw net 0.8 · Tempo 70.5 · 30 Division I games · Through 2026-03-06

Record: 17–13; 17 wins
AdjNet: -0.7β; rank 182 of 365
AdjO: 107.2β; rank 199 of 365
AdjD: 107.8β; rank 166 of 365
AdjT: 70.1β
SOS: -2.2β; rank 234 of 363
NCSOS: 6.8β
WAB: -6.7β; rank 146 of 363
RR: 0.2β
Exp. W: 16.8β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	109.6140	108.8189	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	54.167	53.2273	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	16.0142	17.7112	16.7
Offensive rebound %	25.8327	30.2171	30.6
FTA / FGA %	26.0357	29.046	35.0
Shooting
3P%	35.774	34.3207	33.9
2P%	54.575	54.3282	51.7
FT%	74.985	71.2107	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	47.9	40.2	39.5
Assists / FGM %	62.3	46.2	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	7.3	10.1	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	40.2	32.6	31.4
2-pointers %	44.5	51.2	48.8
Free throws %	15.3	16.2	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 9.1
Top Three Share of Minutes: 41%
Bench Share of Minutes: 37%
Players with Logged Minutes: 11

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-03	Vanderbilt	L 61–105	74.8	Away	0–1
11-09	Mercer	L 77–92	68.8	Away	0–2
11-11	UNC Asheville	L 64–69	64.8	Away	0–3
11-19	Belmont	L 68–75	77.8	Away	0–4
11-22	Western Caro.	W 83–62	74.5	Home	1–4
11-26	Marshall	W 90–67	77.9	Away	2–4
11-29	Southeast Mo. St.	W 88–77	80.3	Away	3–4
12-03	Tennessee Tech	W 83–80	74.3	Home	4–4
12-07	Alabama A&M	W 92–58	65.6	Home	5–4
12-16	Duke	L 73–97	82.5	Away	5–5
12-29	Cincinnati	L 62–89	72.2	Away	5–6
01-01	Jacksonville	W 76–57	59.0	Home	6–6
01-03	North Florida	W 82–74	70.7	Home	7–6
01-08	Stetson	L 83–91	76.6	Away	7–7
01-10	FGCU	W 84–77	71.5	Away	8–7
01-15	Bellarmine	W 81–71	66.6	Home	9–7
01-17	Austin Peay	W 82–78	74.9	Home	10–7
01-22	Stetson	W 79–74 1OT	80.6	Home	11–7
01-23	FGCU	W 86–71	63.0	Home	12–7
01-29	Jacksonville	L 65–70	60.4	Away	12–8
01-31	North Florida	W 100–94	72.9	Away	13–8
02-04	Austin Peay	L 76–87	71.9	Away	13–9
02-07	Central Ark.	L 78–86	72.7	Home	13–10
02-11	Eastern Ky.	W 75–61	65.5	Home	14–10
02-14	Queens (NC)	L 81–87	78.5	Away	14–11
02-18	Bellarmine	W 75–72	64.0	Away	15–11
02-21	North Ala.	W 73–51	62.5	Home	16–11
02-25	West Ga.	L 78–84	70.5	Away	16–12
02-28	Eastern Ky.	W 80–77	65.4	Away	17–12
03-06	FGCU	L 53–77	63.0	Neutral	17–13

Roster · 11 players

Player logs in 30 of 30 team games

Team roster, season totals
Column groups	Minutes			Season Totals							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Mateo Esmeraldo	30	30:36	76.2%	293	117	206	45	0	47	31	75–145	51.7%	25–79	31.6%	68–82	82.9%	50.2%	56.3%	36.6%	5	29:58 −0:39	74.9%	7.0 −2.8
Grant Asman	30	27:57	69.6%	417	175	51	27	29	51	76	97–146	66.4%	54–153	35.3%	61–79	77.2%	59.5%	62.5%	26.4%	5	27:37 −0:20	69.0%	12.8 −1.1
Titas Sargiunas	30	23:42	59.0%	297	60	55	25	1	48	52	56–106	52.8%	45–131	34.4%	50–70	71.4%	52.1%	55.5%	29.5%	5	23:45 +0:03	59.4%	10.6 +0.7
Ross Candelino	26	25:22	54.7%	290	130	30	14	4	23	24	37–63	58.7%	62–143	43.4%	30–45	66.7%	63.1%	64.2%	21.8%	5	32:02 +6:40	80.1%	16.0 +4.8
Charlie Williams	30	21:39	53.9%	292	75	68	19	19	50	85	80–151	53.0%	32–93	34.4%	36–46	78.3%	52.5%	55.3%	18.9%	5	22:10 +0:31	55.4%	5.8 −3.9
Ethan Duncan	29	20:59	50.5%	312	55	25	23	1	19	36	51–90	56.7%	62–165	37.6%	24–26	92.3%	56.5%	58.5%	10.2%	5	21:24 +0:25	53.5%	8.0 −2.8
Or Ashkenazi	29	19:28	46.8%	78	80	41	19	2	17	57	16–36	44.4%†	11–31	35.5%†	13–18	72.2%†	48.5%†	52.1%†	26.9%†	5	13:32 −5:56	33.8%	2.0 −0.7
Kennedy Okpara	28	12:59	30.2%	132	69	9	12	10	21	40	39–71	54.9%	13–45	28.9%†	15–29	51.7%	50.4%	51.3%	25.0%	4	7:01 −5:58	14.0%	2.3 −2.5
Kellan Boylan	30	11:50	29.5%	86	99	19	14	6	13	47	27–55	49.1%†	1–15	6.7%†	29–42	69.0%	40.7%†	48.6%†	60.0%†	5	14:07 +2:17	35.3%	4.4 +1.5
Cole Middleton	28	11:31	26.8%	125	57	13	7	6	31	41	40–86	46.5%	5–17	29.4%†	30–38	78.9%	46.1%	52.2%	36.9%	5	7:41 −3:50	19.2%	3.4 −1.1
Luke CarterFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	6	1:04	0.5%	6	2	0	0	0	0	1	0–1	0.0%†	2–2	100.0%†	0–0	—	100.0%†	100.0%†	0.0%†	2	0:20 −0:45	0.3%	0.0 −1.0
Team, games with logs · season totals	30 games			2328	1007	517	not published	79	340	not published	518–950	54.5%	312–874	35.7%	356–475	74.9%	54.1%	57.3%	26.0%
Sum of players				2328	919	517	205	78	320	490	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0	+88	0	not published	+1	+20	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $245K; 80% Range $90K to $655K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $240K to $255K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 11; 1 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Mateo Esmeraldo	76.4%	$53K	$18K to $160K	20.2%	$52K to $55K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Grant Asman	71.0%	$38K	$12K to $115K	15.6%	$37K to $39K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Titas Sargiunas	59.0%	$29K	$8K to $90K	12.1%	$28K to $30K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Charlie Williams	53.5%	$10K	$1K to $39K	5.2%	$9K to $10K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Or Ashkenazi	50.0%	$12K	$2K to $43K	6.2%	$12K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ross Candelino	49.9%	$25K	$7K to $75K	10.6%	$24K to $26K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ethan Duncan	49.9%	$20K	$4K to $66K	9.3%	$20K to $21K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kennedy Okpara	32.6%	$15K	$4K to $44K	6.6%	$15K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cole Middleton	28.7%	$6K	$1K to $22K	3.0%	$6K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kellan Boylan	28.4%	$16K	$5K to $46K	6.5%	$16K to $17K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Luke Carter	0.7%	$2K	$1K to $6K	0.9%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$245K	$90K to $655K	100%	$240K to $255K	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Lipscomb University (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,770,794	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,770,794
Athletics department expenses	$25,395,470
Athletics department revenue	$25,395,470

Team Totalsβ

Season totals, 30 games, 2,123 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	2,328	2,310
Field goals made	830	842
Field goals attempted	1,824	1,820
3-pointers made	312	251
3-pointers attempted	874	731
Free throws made	356	375
Free throws attempted	475	527
Offensive rebounds	269	320
Defensive rebounds	738	774
Total rebounds	1,007	1,094
Assists	517	389
Blocks	79	96
Turnovers	340	376
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 205.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 490.
Minutes (derived)	6,025	not published

30 of 30 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,328	2,328	0	±11.6	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	830	830	0	±4.2	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,824	1,824	0	±9.1	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	312	312	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	874	874	0	±4.4	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	356	356	0	±2.0	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	475	475	0	±2.4	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	1,007	919	+88	±80.6	0
Assists	Reconciled	517	517	0	±2.6	0
Blocks	Reconciled	79	78	+1	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	340	320	+20	±10.2	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	205	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	490	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	6,025	5,997	+27.6	±120.5	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Mateo Esmeraldo	76.4%	+2.4range +1.3 to +3.8Sufficient evidence
Grant Asman	71.0%	+1.7range +0.7 to +2.9Sufficient evidence
Titas Sargiunas	59.0%	+1.5range -0.1 to +2.7Sufficient evidence
Charlie Williams	53.5%	-1.0range -2.2 to +0.3Sufficient evidence
Or Ashkenazi	50.0%	-0.2range -1.6 to +1.1Sufficient evidence
Ross Candelino	49.9%	+1.3range +0.2 to +2.8Sufficient evidence
Ethan Duncan	49.9%	+0.9range -0.9 to +2.3Sufficient evidence
Kennedy Okpara	32.6%	+1.1range -0.2 to +2.3Sufficient evidence
Cole Middleton	28.7%	-1.0range -2.2 to +0.0Sufficient evidence
Kellan Boylan	28.4%	+1.6range +0.7 to +2.5Sufficient evidence
Luke Carter	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +10.5range +9.5 to +11.4Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

10 valued players hold 99.9% of on-court time. 1 without a value (under 300 possessions) holds 0.1%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 0.0%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value