UC Santa Barbara

BW · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 105 · Raw net 4.3 · Tempo 67.1 · 30 Division I games · Through 2026-03-11

Record: 16–14; 16 wins
AdjNet: 1.8β; rank 146 of 365
AdjO: 112.0β; rank 91 of 365
AdjD: 110.2β; rank 230 of 365
AdjT: 65.8β
SOS: -2.2β; rank 236 of 363
NCSOS: -1.4β
WAB: -8.5β; rank 193 of 363
RR: -2.1β
Exp. W: 18.1β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	112.594	108.1168	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	54.747	52.6244	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	18.7312	16.8166	16.7
Offensive rebound %	31.0164	25.514	30.6
FTA / FGA %	36.8134	42.4330	35.0
Shooting
3P%	37.423	33.9177	33.9
2P%	53.6102	53.5258	51.7
FT%	77.523	72.6193	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	44.1	35.7	39.5
Assists / FGM %	54.6	49.0	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	6.6	9.9	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	35.9	26.7	31.4
2-pointers %	43.5	50.6	48.8
Free throws %	20.7	22.6	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 8.2
Top Three Share of Minutes: 47%
Bench Share of Minutes: 29%
Players with Logged Minutes: 12

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-08	San Jose St.	W 85–74	62.5	Home	1–0
11-11	Sacramento St.	W 92–87	73.4	Away	2–0
11-17	LMU (CA)	L 74–78 1OT	73.9	Home	2–1
11-22	Nevada	L 64–77	68.1	Away	2–2
11-28	Lehigh	W 72–70	64.1	Neutral	3–2
11-29	Seattle U	W 74–71	62.7	Neutral	4–2
12-04	Long Beach St.	W 84–77 1OT	73.7	Home	5–2
12-06	CSU Bakersfield	W 109–84	72.9	Home	6–2
12-13	Utah Valley	L 53–68	67.6	Neutral	6–3
12-17	Green Bay	L 64–67	56.6	Away	6–4
12-22	Portland	W 79–61	63.8	Home	7–4
01-01	Cal St. Fullerton	L 84–95	76.2	Away	7–5
01-03	CSUN	L 65–74	73.0	Away	7–6
01-08	UC Davis	L 86–93	71.1	Home	7–7
01-15	CSU Bakersfield	W 75–69	61.9	Away	8–7
01-17	Hawaii	W 77–62	62.1	Home	9–7
01-22	Cal Poly	W 107–67	66.9	Home	10–7
01-24	Long Beach St.	W 74–71	62.6	Away	11–7
01-29	UC San Diego	W 62–48	65.6	Away	12–7
01-31	Cal St. Fullerton	W 83–69	73.3	Home	13–7
02-05	UC Davis	L 75–85	64.7	Away	13–8
02-07	UC Irvine	W 84–79	71.0	Home	14–8
02-12	UC Riverside	W 76–68	64.3	Away	15–8
02-14	Cal Poly	L 79–89	66.7	Away	15–9
02-19	CSUN	L 83–85 1OT	83.2	Home	15–10
02-21	Hawaii	L 75–78 1OT	74.0	Away	15–11
02-26	UC Riverside	W 70–59	68.1	Home	16–11
02-28	UC Irvine	L 60–64	66.1	Away	16–12
03-07	UC San Diego	L 63–64	62.4	Home	16–13
03-11	UC Davis	L 73–79	73.7	Neutral	16–14

Roster · 12 players

Player logs in 30 of 30 team games

Team roster, season totals
Column groups	Minutes			Season Totals							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Aidan Mahaney	30	34:50	85.7%	464	59	82	23	2	41	77	90–186	48.4%	73–193	37.8%	65–80	81.3%	52.6%	56.0%	21.1%	5	37:27 +2:37	91.3%	13.6 −1.9
Colin Smith	30	29:31	72.6%	356	125	45	16	5	51	74	62–123	50.4%	46–114	40.4%	94–115	81.7%	55.3%	61.9%	48.5%	5	33:53 +4:22	82.6%	12.8 +0.9
CJ Shaw	30	29:20	72.1%	348	55	68	29	3	54	55	70–128	54.7%	38–88	43.2%	94–113	83.2%	58.8%	65.5%	52.3%	5	34:35 +5:15	84.3%	10.4 −1.2
Zion Sensley	30	25:16	62.1%	315	216	23	13	4	32	55	57–107	53.3%	55–155	35.5%	36–43	83.7%	53.2%	56.1%	16.4%	5	24:10 −1:06	58.9%	10.2 −0.3
Hosana Kitenge	30	21:27	52.7%	228	134	54	24	18	67	110	91–159	57.2%	2–7	28.6%†	40–66	60.6%	56.6%	58.4%	39.8%	5	24:04 +2:37	58.7%	7.8 +0.2
Marvin McGhee IV	27	20:42	45.8%	161	112	37	19	10	28	50	22–35	62.9%	29–79	36.7%	30–34	88.2%	57.5%	62.4%	29.8%	5	23:06 +2:24	56.3%	5.4 −0.6
Miro Little	16	29:54	39.2%	203	90	77	22	6	37	26	41–75	54.7%	20–60	33.3%	61–73	83.6%	52.6%	60.7%	54.1%	2	34:15 +4:21	33.4%	11.5 −1.2
Michael Simcoe	29	8:16	19.7%	55	44	13	11	2	14	27	19–33	57.6%†	2–11	18.2%†	11–18	61.1%†	50.0%†	53.0%†	40.9%†	4	4:29 −3:47	8.7%	1.0 −0.9
Evans Kipruto	27	8:47	19.4%	65	52	5	11	17	18	48	23–35	65.7%†	0–0	—	19–29	65.5%	65.7%†	68.0%†	82.9%†	4	9:35 +0:48	18.7%	2.0 −0.4
Jason Fontenet IIFew games	4	27:28	9.0%	27	20	5	3	0	7	10	7–17	41.2%†	2–7	28.6%†	7–15	46.7%†	41.7%†	44.1%†	62.5%†	—	—	—	—
Koat Keat TongUnder 100 minutes	15	6:18	7.7%	30	29	5	4	2	8	19	9–16	56.3%†	1–1	100.0%†	9–13	69.2%†	61.8%†	66.0%†	76.5%†	3	3:58 −2:19	5.8%	1.7 −0.3
Luke ZuffelatoFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	8	3:14	2.1%	3	2	2	3	0	1	3	0–0	—	0–3	0.0%†	3–6	50.0%†	0.0%†	26.6%†	200.0%†	2	0:42 −2:32	0.7%	0.0 −0.4
Team, games with logs · season totals	30 games			2301	1025	423	not published	69	383	not published	500–933	53.6%	275–736	37.4%	476–614	77.5%	54.7%	59.3%	36.8%
Sum of players				2255	938	416	178	69	358	554	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				+46	+87	+7	not published	0	+25	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $285K; 80% Range $105K to $785K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $270K to $320K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 3 floor only

The widest scenario range, $115K to $885K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Aidan Mahaney	89.3%	$51K	$17K to $150K	18.1%	$48K to $58K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Colin Smith	77.6%	$55K	$19K to $165K	18.2%	$52K to $63K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
CJ Shaw	74.6%	$29K	$7K to $95K	12.3%	$28K to $33K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zion Sensley	59.1%	$31K	$10K to $93K	11.7%	$30K to $36K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Hosana Kitenge	56.0%	$27K	$8K to $83K	10.5%	$26K to $30K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Marvin McGhee IV	46.3%	$26K	$8K to $78K	9.5%	$25K to $30K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Miro Little	45.5%	$28K	$10K to $81K	9.8%	$27K to $32K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Evans Kipruto	20.6%	$8K	$2K to $24K	3.3%	$7K to $9K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Michael Simcoe	16.2%	$6K	$2K to $20K	2.6%	$6K to $7K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jason Fontenet II	8.9%	$2K	$1K to $7K	0.8%	$2K to $3K	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Koat Keat Tong	5.6%	$2K	$1K to $7K	0.8%	$2K to $3K	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Luke Zuffelato	0.3%	$2K	$1K to $7K	0.8%	$2K to $3K	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$285K	$105K to $785K	100%	$270K to $320K	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of California-Santa Barbara (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$4,583,984	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$4,583,984
Athletics department expenses	$32,803,613
Athletics department revenue	$32,803,613

Team Totalsβ

Season totals, 30 games, 2,046 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	2,301	2,212
Field goals made	775	757
Field goals attempted	1,669	1,627
3-pointers made	275	197
3-pointers attempted	736	581
Free throws made	476	501
Free throws attempted	614	690
Offensive rebounds	302	248
Defensive rebounds	723	673
Total rebounds	1,025	921
Assists	423	371
Blocks	69	92
Turnovers	383	344
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 178.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 554.
Minutes (derived)	6,100	not published

30 of 30 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Residual shown	2,301	2,255	+46	±11.5	0
Field goals made	Residual shown	775	759	+16	±3.9	0
Field goals attempted	Residual shown	1,669	1,632	+37	±8.3	0
3-pointers made	Residual shown	275	268	+7	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Residual shown	736	718	+18	±3.7	0
Free throws made	Residual shown	476	469	+7	±2.4	0
Free throws attempted	Residual shown	614	605	+9	±3.1	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	1,025	938	+87	±82.0	0
Assists	Residual shown	423	416	+7	±2.1	0
Blocks	Reconciled	69	69	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	383	358	+25	±11.5	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	178	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	554	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Residual shown	6,100	5,956	+143.8	±122.0	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Aidan Mahaney	89.3%	+1.5range +0.6 to +2.3Sufficient evidence
Colin Smith	77.6%	+2.0range +1.2 to +2.9Sufficient evidence
CJ Shaw	74.6%	+0.6range -0.4 to +1.5Sufficient evidence
Zion Sensley	59.1%	+1.3range +0.2 to +2.2Sufficient evidence
Hosana Kitenge	56.0%	+1.1range +0.1 to +2.1Sufficient evidence
Marvin McGhee IV	46.3%	+1.4range +0.3 to +2.4Sufficient evidence
Miro Little	45.5%	+1.6range +0.9 to +2.3Sufficient evidence
Evans Kipruto	20.6%	+0.0range -0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence
Michael Simcoe	16.2%	-0.2range -1.0 to +0.6Limited evidence
Jason Fontenet II	8.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Koat Keat Tong	5.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Luke Zuffelato	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +10.4range +9.6 to +11.2Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

9 valued players hold 97.0% of on-court time. 3 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 3.0%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 7.4%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value