UC Santa Barbara

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for UC Santa Barbara, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Aidan Mahaney	89.3%	+1.5range +0.6 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+7.0range +6.3 to +7.8Sufficient evidence	$51KspeculativeLoading	$17K to $150KLoading
Colin Smith	77.6%	+2.0range +1.2 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	+6.4range +5.9 to +6.9Sufficient evidence	$55KspeculativeLoading	$19K to $165KLoading
CJ Shaw	74.6%	+0.6range -0.4 to +1.5Sufficient evidence	+5.4range +4.8 to +6.0Sufficient evidence	$29KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $95KLoading
Zion Sensley	59.1%	+1.3range +0.2 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+4.6range +4.1 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$31KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $93KLoading
Hosana Kitenge	56.0%	+1.1range +0.1 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+4.3range +3.7 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$27KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $83KLoading
Marvin McGhee IV	46.3%	+1.4range +0.3 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	+3.6range +3.2 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$26KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $78KLoading
Miro Little	45.5%	+1.6range +0.9 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.3 to +4.0Sufficient evidence	$28KspeculativeLoading	$10K to $81KLoading
Evans Kipruto	20.6%	+0.0range -0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence	+1.4range +1.3 to +1.5Limited evidence	$8KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $24KLoading
Michael Simcoe	16.2%	-0.2range -1.0 to +0.6Limited evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.2Limited evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $20KLoading
Jason Fontenet II	8.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $7KLoading
Koat Keat Tong	5.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $7KLoading
Luke Zuffelato	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $7KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $285K; 80% Range $105K to $785K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $270K to $320K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 12; 3 floor only

The widest scenario range, $115K to $885K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Aidan Mahaney	89.3%	$51K	$17K to $150K	18.1%	$48K to $58K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Colin Smith	77.6%	$55K	$19K to $165K	18.2%	$52K to $63K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
CJ Shaw	74.6%	$29K	$7K to $95K	12.3%	$28K to $33K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zion Sensley	59.1%	$31K	$10K to $93K	11.7%	$30K to $36K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Hosana Kitenge	56.0%	$27K	$8K to $83K	10.5%	$26K to $30K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Marvin McGhee IV	46.3%	$26K	$8K to $78K	9.5%	$25K to $30K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Miro Little	45.5%	$28K	$10K to $81K	9.8%	$27K to $32K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Evans Kipruto	20.6%	$8K	$2K to $24K	3.3%	$7K to $9K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Michael Simcoe	16.2%	$6K	$2K to $20K	2.6%	$6K to $7K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jason Fontenet II	8.9%	$2K	$1K to $7K	0.8%	$2K to $3K	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Koat Keat Tong	5.6%	$2K	$1K to $7K	0.8%	$2K to $3K	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Luke Zuffelato	0.3%	$2K	$1K to $7K	0.8%	$2K to $3K	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$285K	$105K to $785K	100%	$270K to $320K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of California-Santa Barbara (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$4,583,984	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$4,583,984
Athletics department expenses	$32,803,613
Athletics department revenue	$32,803,613

Coverage and exclusions

14 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (47%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

16 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$4,583,984	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$4,583,984	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	9
3 or more days	19

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology