Tarleton St.

WAC · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 244 · Raw net -4.6 · Tempo 70.2 · 28 Division I games · Through 2026-03-11

Record: 10–18; 10 wins
AdjNet: -4.3β; rank 235 of 365
AdjO: 104.0β; rank 270 of 365
AdjD: 108.3β; rank 181 of 365
AdjT: 70.1β
SOS: -0.3β; rank 177 of 363
NCSOS: 1.8β
WAB: -11.5β; rank 246 of 363
RR: -1.7β
Exp. W: 11.7β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	101.8308	106.4116	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	48.3306	53.6285	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	20.0348	23.43	16.7
Offensive rebound %	31.5141	35.1340	30.6
FTA / FGA %	41.934	47.7360	35.0
Shooting
3P%	32.5257	34.9243	33.9
2P%	48.2304	54.4293	51.7
FT%	74.2123	73.2227	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	24.2	40.7	39.5
Assists / FGM %	41.6	55.6	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	9.7	9.6	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	18.5	30.0	31.4
2-pointers %	57.2	45.5	48.8
Free throws %	24.3	24.6	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 11.1
Top Three Share of Minutes: 37%
Bench Share of Minutes: 47%
Players with Logged Minutes: 18

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-03	SMU	L 76–96	72.8	Away	0–1
11-05	LSU	L 60–96	68.2	Away	0–2
11-08	A&M-Corpus Christi	W 85–77	69.2	Home	1–2
11-11	Merrimack	W 76–62	73.6	Home	2–2
11-14	Baylor	L 81–94	73.1	Away	2–3
11-20	Rice	W 90–74	74.6	Away	3–3
12-01	Cincinnati	L 58–76	70.9	Away	3–4
12-16	Mississippi Val.	W 88–64	75.1	Away	4–4
12-19	Florida A&M	W 78–54	77.7	Home	5–4
12-29	UT Arlington	W 69–63	65.8	Away	6–4
01-01	Utah Valley	L 85–91	76.2	Home	6–5
01-03	California Baptist	W 81–76 1OT	74.5	Home	7–5
01-08	Abilene Christian	L 80–84	72.6	Home	7–6
01-15	Southern Utah	L 105–106 1OT	90.6	Away	7–7
01-17	Utah Tech	L 71–75	69.7	Away	7–8
01-21	UT Arlington	L 64–71	67.3	Away	7–9
01-29	Utah Valley	L 55–83	72.2	Home	7–10
01-31	Utah Tech	L 59–65	63.4	Home	7–11
02-05	California Baptist	L 55–56	65.7	Away	7–12
02-07	Southern Utah	W 62–59	68.8	Away	8–12
02-14	Abilene Christian	L 59–73	70.1	Away	8–13
02-16	Abilene Christian	W 65–62 1OT	75.8	Home	9–13
02-19	Southern Utah	W 78–74	67.0	Home	10–13
02-21	Utah Tech	L 72–80	64.8	Home	10–14
02-26	Utah Valley	L 72–79	69.4	Away	10–15
02-28	California Baptist	L 67–82	66.8	Away	10–16
03-05	UT Arlington	L 60–65	60.5	Home	10–17
03-11	Abilene Christian	L 78–84	76.5	Neutral	10–18

Roster · 18 players

Player logs in 28 of 28 team games

Team roster, per game
Column groups	Minutes			Per Game							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Jordan Mizell	28	28:27	70.2%	5.0	3.3	2.1	1.7	0.1	1.7	2.9	53–128	41.4%	0–6	0.0%†	35–50	70.0%	39.6%	45.2%	37.3%	5	32:08 +3:41	80.3%	7.2 +2.2
Kaia Isaac	28	24:13	59.7%	5.0	1.8	1.4	1.0	0.1	1.5	1.4	26–59	44.1%	23–67	34.3%	19–22	86.4%†	48.0%	51.6%	17.5%	5	23:12 −1:01	58.0%	8.0 +3.0
Freddy Hicks	22	27:24	53.1%	8.8	4.3	1.7	1.4	0.5	2.0	3.5	44–114	38.6%	7–22	31.8%†	84–120	70.0%	40.1%	51.1%	88.2%	5	23:40 −3:44	59.2%	7.2 −1.6
Dior Johnson	19	25:38	42.9%	23.5	3.2	1.6	1.2	0.1	2.2	2.3	113–219	51.6%	27–50	54.0%	140–165	84.8%	57.1%	65.4%	61.3%	4	30:27 +4:49	60.9%	25.8 +2.2
Ocypher Owens	26	17:31	40.1%	4.3	3.3	0.7	0.8	0.6	1.3	2.2	28–75	37.3%	9–30	30.0%†	28–41	68.3%	39.5%	45.1%	39.0%	5	22:22 +4:51	55.9%	7.2 +2.9
Kade Douglas	28	15:32	38.3%	5.6	1.3	0.6	0.4	0.0	1.0	1.4	30–63	47.6%	24–69	34.8%	26–32	81.3%	50.0%	54.1%	24.2%	5	14:45 −0:47	36.9%	2.4 −3.2
Cam McDowell	17	25:10	37.7%	13.6	3.1	1.2	1.7	0.2	2.0	1.9	64–127	50.4%	16–51	31.4%	56–64	87.5%	49.4%	56.3%	36.0%	—	—	—	—
Chris Mpaka	23	18:16	37.0%	8.3	5.6	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.8	2.9	75–141	53.2%	0–0	—	42–66	63.6%	53.2%	56.5%	46.8%	4	20:20 +2:04	40.6%	8.8 +0.4
Leroy Kelly IV	18	21:27	34.0%	5.2	2.8	1.1	1.8	0.0	0.7	2.2	22–43	51.2%†	10–40	25.0%†	19–27	70.4%	44.6%†	49.0%†	32.5%†	2	18:58 −2:30	19.0%	2.5 −2.7
DJ Dormu	20	18:46	33.1%	5.4	1.3	1.9	0.9	0.0	1.5	1.7	37–85	43.5%	6–35	17.1%†	16–26	61.5%	38.3%	41.1%	21.7%	5	16:20 −2:26	40.8%	4.0 −1.4
Andy Sigiscar	22	15:44	30.5%	6.8	2.8	0.3	0.6	1.0	0.9	1.7	63–99	63.6%†	0–0	—	23–41	56.1%	63.6%†	63.7%†	41.4%†	3	14:14 −1:30	21.3%	5.3 −1.4
Damion Porter Jr.Under 100 minutes	12	7:14	7.7%	1.3	1.3	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.3	1.1	5–13	38.5%†	1–5	20.0%†	3–6	50.0%†	36.1%†	38.8%†	33.3%†	4	7:59 +0:44	16.0%	1.5 +0.2
Matyas VrabelUnder 100 minutes	10	6:52	6.0%	1.9	1.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.9	8–13	61.5%†	0–0	—	3–6	50.0%†	61.5%†	60.7%†	46.2%†	2	2:28 −4:24	2.5%	0.0 −1.9
Cam ThomasUnder 100 minutes	11	5:25	5.2%	1.3	0.7	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.3	0.4	7–17	41.2%†	0–5	0.0%†	0–0	—	31.8%†	31.8%†	0.0%†	3	5:06 −0:19	7.7%	1.3 +0.1
AJ Dent, JrFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	2	12:32	2.2%	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.5	1.0	3–5	60.0%†	2–5	40.0%†	0–0	—	60.0%†	60.0%†	0.0%†	—	—	—	—
Malek ArchieFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	1	4:31	0.4%	4.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2–2	100.0%†	0–0	—	0–0	—	100.0%†	100.0%†	0.0%†	—	—	—	—
Joseph MartinezFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	4	0:56	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0–1	0.0%†	0–0	—	0–0	—	0.0%†	0.0%†	0.0%†	1	0:50 −0:06	0.4%	0.0 0.0
Roy MaromFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	2	0:30	0.1%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0–0	—	0–0	—	0–0	—	—	—	—	1	0:50 +0:19	0.4%	0.0 0.0
Team, games with logs · per game	28 games			72.5	31.4	10.5	not published	3.1	14.3	not published	580–1204	48.2%	125–385	32.5%	494–666	74.2%	48.3%	53.9%	41.9%
Sum of players				72.5	27.5	10.5	9.7	3.1	13.6	20.5	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0.0	+3.9	−0.0	not published	0.0	+0.6	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $270K; 80% Range $100K to $735K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $250K to $285K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 18; 6 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Jordan Mizell	70.3%	$52K	$15K to $175K	17.6%	$47K to $54K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kaia Isaac	60.4%	$28K	$5K to $91K	11.8%	$26K to $29K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Freddy Hicks	52.6%	$22K	$2K to $79K	9.8%	$20K to $23K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dior Johnson	43.7%	$26K	$7K to $86K	9.7%	$24K to $27K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ocypher Owens	39.6%	$4K	$1K to $26K	1.5%	$4K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cam McDowell	38.2%	$21K	$4K to $74K	8.5%	$19K to $22K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kade Douglas	38.0%	$8K	$1K to $33K	4.3%	$7K to $8K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Chris Mpaka	37.9%	$17K	$3K to $58K	7.4%	$16K to $18K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Leroy Kelly IV	35.1%	$17K	$3K to $61K	7.2%	$16K to $18K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
DJ Dormu	32.4%	$4K	$1K to $23K	2.1%	$4K to $5K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Andy Sigiscar	30.1%	$20K	$6K to $62K	7.1%	$18K to $20K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Damion Porter Jr.	7.6%	$2K	$1K to $8K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matyas Vrabel	6.1%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.5%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Cam Thomas	5.0%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.5%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
AJ Dent, Jr	2.2%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.5%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Malek Archie	0.4%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.5%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Joseph Martinez	0.3%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.5%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Roy Marom	0.1%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.5%	$1K to $2K	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$270K	$100K to $735K	100%	$250K to $285K	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Tarleton State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,613,774	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,613,774
Athletics department expenses	$34,277,745
Athletics department revenue	$34,277,745

Team Totalsβ

Season per game, 28 games, 1,993 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	72.5	75.8
Field goals made	25.2	24.8
Field goals attempted	56.8	53.3
3-pointers made	4.5	7.6
3-pointers attempted	13.8	21.7
Free throws made	17.6	18.6
Free throws attempted	23.8	25.4
Offensive rebounds	10.9	11.1
Defensive rebounds	20.6	23.6
Total rebounds	31.4	34.7
Assists	10.5	13.8
Blocks	3.1	4.1
Turnovers	14.3	16.6
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 272.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 573.
Minutes (derived)	202.7	not published

28 of 28 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,029	2,029	0	±10.1	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	705	705	0	±3.5	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,589	1,589	0	±7.9	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	125	125	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	385	385	0	±2.0	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	494	494	0	±2.5	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	666	666	0	±3.3	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	880	770	+110	±70.4	0
Assists	Reconciled	293	294	−1	±2.0	0
Blocks	Reconciled	86	86	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	399	382	+17	±12.0	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	272	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	573	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	5,675	5,660	+15.5	±113.5	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Jordan Mizell	70.3%	+1.2range -0.1 to +2.5Sufficient evidence
Kaia Isaac	60.4%	+0.4range -0.8 to +1.4Sufficient evidence
Freddy Hicks	52.6%	-0.1range -1.4 to +1.7Sufficient evidence
Dior Johnson	43.7%	+0.7range -0.2 to +1.8Sufficient evidence
Ocypher Owens	39.6%	-2.5range -3.5 to -1.5Sufficient evidence
Cam McDowell	38.2%	+0.6range -0.9 to +2.0Sufficient evidence
Kade Douglas	38.0%	-1.2range -2.4 to -0.0Sufficient evidence
Chris Mpaka	37.9%	+0.2range -1.1 to +1.4Sufficient evidence
Leroy Kelly IV	35.1%	+0.4range -1.0 to +2.0Sufficient evidence
DJ Dormu	32.4%	-2.4range -3.9 to -0.8Sufficient evidence
Andy Sigiscar	30.1%	+1.0range -0.2 to +1.9Sufficient evidence
Damion Porter Jr.	7.6%	-2.1range -2.6 to -1.6Limited evidence
Matyas Vrabel	6.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Cam Thomas	5.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
AJ Dent, Jr	2.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Malek Archie	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Joseph Martinez	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Roy Marom	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +9.2range +8.4 to +9.9Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

12 valued players hold 97.2% of on-court time. 6 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 2.8%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 1.5%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value