UC Davis
BW · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 177 · Raw net 0.0 · Tempo 71.3 · 31 Division I games · Through 2026-03-12
Scouting Report
| Category | Offense | Defense | D-I Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | |||
| Efficiency / 100 poss. | 105.9231 | 105.8103 | 108.5 |
| Four Factors | |||
| Effective FG% | 51.8157 | 51.7199 | 51.4 |
| TO / 100 poss. | 17.9266 | 19.830 | 16.7 |
| Offensive rebound % | 25.2334 | 30.5181 | 30.6 |
| FTA / FGA % | 40.553 | 39.1291 | 35.0 |
| Shooting | |||
| 3P% | 34.4149 | 33.8173 | 33.9 |
| 2P% | 51.9171 | 52.4216 | 51.7 |
| FT% | 75.375 | 74.1272 | 72.5 |
| Style | |||
| 3PA / FGA % | 43.5 | 38.1 | 39.5 |
| Assists / FGM % | 60.1 | 51.7 | 52.6 |
| Blocks / opp. 2PA % | 7.6 | 10.3 | 9.5 |
| Point Distribution | |||
| 3-pointers % | 33.5 | 29.1 | 31.4 |
| 2-pointers % | 43.8 | 49.0 | 48.8 |
| Free throws % | 22.8 | 21.9 | 19.8 |
Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.
Rotation Depth
- Effective Rotation Size
- 8.9
- Top Three Share of Minutes
- 41%
- Bench Share of Minutes
- 35%
- Players with Logged Minutes
- 13
Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions
Schedule and Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | Poss. | Site | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-05 | North Dakota St. | W 80–68 | 68.9 | Home | 1–0 |
| 11-09 | Portland | L 63–67 | 69.5 | Away | 1–1 |
| 11-14 | Sacramento St. | W 77–73 | 72.4 | Home | 2–1 |
| 11-18 | Nevada | W 75–71 | 74.3 | Away | 3–1 |
| 11-21 | Colorado | L 79–95 | 69.6 | Away | 3–2 |
| 11-24 | Louisiana | W 77–56 | 65.2 | Home | 4–2 |
| 12-05 | Hawaii | L 69–75 | 71.3 | — | 4–3 |
| 12-13 | Oregon | L 62–104 | 72.4 | Away | 4–4 |
| 12-17 | Seattle U | L 78–79 | 73.8 | Home | 4–5 |
| 12-21 | Idaho St. | W 93–83 | 65.8 | Away | 5–5 |
| 01-01 | CSUN | W 89–80 | 76.4 | Home | 6–5 |
| 01-03 | CSU Bakersfield | L 79–81 | 71.7 | Home | 6–6 |
| 01-08 | UC Santa Barbara | W 93–86 | 71.1 | Away | 7–6 |
| 01-10 | Cal Poly | L 78–84 | 73.9 | Away | 7–7 |
| 01-15 | Cal St. Fullerton | W 74–69 | 74.5 | Home | 8–7 |
| 01-17 | UC Irvine | W 75–72 | 68.7 | Home | 9–7 |
| 01-22 | UC San Diego | L 74–80 | 74.4 | Home | 9–8 |
| 01-24 | UC Riverside | W 74–66 | 68.5 | Home | 10–8 |
| 01-29 | CSUN | L 78–94 | 79.9 | Away | 10–9 |
| 01-31 | CSU Bakersfield | W 80–72 | 69.6 | Away | 11–9 |
| 02-05 | UC Santa Barbara | W 85–75 | 64.7 | Home | 12–9 |
| 02-07 | Cal Poly | W 67–58 | 69.4 | Home | 13–9 |
| 02-12 | UC San Diego | L 51–68 | 70.3 | Away | 13–10 |
| 02-14 | Long Beach St. | W 71–54 | 70.5 | Home | 14–10 |
| 02-19 | Cal St. Fullerton | L 92–93 | 66.6 | Away | 14–11 |
| 02-21 | UC Riverside | W 78–73 | 74.4 | Away | 15–11 |
| 02-26 | Hawaii | L 73–77 | 68.8 | Home | 15–12 |
| 03-05 | Long Beach St. | W 76–70 1OT | 79.4 | Away | 16–12 |
| 03-07 | UC Irvine | L 69–79 1OT | 74.6 | Away | 16–13 |
| 03-11 | UC Santa Barbara | W 79–73 | 73.7 | Neutral | 17–13 |
| 03-12 | Cal St. Fullerton | L 70–82 | 82.9 | Neutral | 17–14 |
Roster · 13 players
Player logs in 31 of 31 team games
| Column groups | Minutes | Per 40 Minutes | Shooting | Last Five Team Games | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | MPG | Team Min% | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | 2P | 2P% | 3P | 3P% | FT | FT% | eFG% | TS% | FTA/FGA | G | MPG | Min% | Pts/G |
| Connor Sevilla | 30 | 31:30 | 75.6% | 16.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 48–110 | 43.6% | 63–161 | 39.1% | 112–123 | 91.1% | 52.6% | 61.1% | 45.4% | 4 | 32:09 +0:39 | 61.2% | 10.3 −3.0 |
| Marcus Wilson | 31 | 26:46 | 66.4% | 18.7 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 98–206 | 47.6% | 31–96 | 32.3% | 98–122 | 80.3% | 47.8% | 54.4% | 40.4% | 5 | 30:18 +3:31 | 72.1% | 19.2 +6.7 |
| Brayden Fagbemi | 30 | 25:19 | 60.8% | 10.7 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 59–122 | 48.4% | 15–53 | 28.3% | 40–62 | 64.5% | 46.6% | 50.2% | 35.4% | 5 | 31:18 +5:59 | 74.5% | 10.0 +3.2 |
| Isaiah Chappell | 31 | 24:26 | 60.6% | 13.7 | 7.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 35–69 | 50.7% | 54–153 | 35.3% | 27–45 | 60.0% | 52.3% | 53.6% | 20.3% | 5 | 30:16 +5:50 | 72.1% | 7.4 −1.0 |
| Niko Rocak | 30 | 24:44 | 59.4% | 15.9 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 63–99 | 63.6% | 30–82 | 36.6% | 79–113 | 69.9% | 59.7% | 63.9% | 62.4% | 5 | 27:09 +2:25 | 64.6% | 8.6 −1.2 |
| Nils Cooper | 25 | 25:07 | 50.2% | 18.9 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 99–159 | 62.3% | 7–37 | 18.9%† | 77–108 | 71.3% | 55.9% | 60.8% | 55.1% | — | — | — | — |
| Carl Daughtery Jr. | 22 | 26:58 | 47.5% | 14.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 30–65 | 46.2% | 44–104 | 42.3% | 28–37 | 75.7% | 56.8% | 59.4% | 21.9% | 5 | 35:58 +9:00 | 85.7% | 10.2 +0.2 |
| Omer Suljanovic | 30 | 13:57 | 33.5% | 15.3 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 42–80 | 52.5% | 13–52 | 25.0% | 37–54 | 68.5% | 46.6% | 51.4% | 40.9% | 5 | 19:08 +5:10 | 45.5% | 9.0 +3.7 |
| Jalen Stokes | 25 | 13:42 | 27.4% | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 6.7 | 28–57 | 49.1%† | 3–15 | 20.0%† | 38–44 | 86.4% | 45.1%† | 56.4%† | 61.1%† | — | — | — | — |
| Cyril Franklin Jr. | 18 | 5:54 | 8.5% | 6.4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 8–13 | 61.5%† | 0–4 | 0.0%† | 1–3 | 33.3%† | 47.1%† | 46.4%† | 17.6%† | 4 | 8:30 +2:36 | 16.2% | 0.5 −0.4 |
| Chase RawlinsUnder 100 minutes | 17 | 3:59 | 5.4% | 10.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 6–12 | 50.0%† | 2–4 | 50.0%† | 0–1 | 0.0%† | 56.3%† | 54.7%† | 6.3%† | 3 | 3:48 −0:11 | 5.4% | 0.7 −0.4 |
| Abdullah AmzilUnder 100 minutes | 14 | 2:02 | 2.3% | 4.2 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 0–1 | 0.0%† | 1–4 | 25.0%† | 0–0 | — | 30.0%† | 30.0%† | 0.0%† | 2 | 0:52 −1:11 | 0.8% | 0.0 −0.2 |
| Jonathan NoudjihidiFew gamesUnder 100 minutes | 2 | 6:17 | 1.0% | 0.0 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 15.9 | 0–1 | 0.0%† | 0–0 | — | 0–1 | 0.0%† | 0.0%† | 0.0%† | 100.0%† | — | — | — | — |
| Team, games with logs · per 40 team minutes | 31 games | 75.5 | 32.2 | 15.0 | not published | 2.7 | 12.8 | not published | 516–994 | 51.9% | 263–765 | 34.4% | 537–713 | 75.3% | 51.8% | 56.9% | 40.5% | ||||||
| Sum of players | 75.5 | 28.4 | 14.9 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 12.4 | 18.3 | Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals. | |||||||||||||||
| Residual: team minus players | 0.0 | +3.7 | +0.0 | not published | 0.0 | +0.4 | not published | ||||||||||||||||
G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.
Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β
Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.
- Team Pool
- $315K
- 80% Range $115K to $820K
- Tier
- Low and other
- low evidence
- Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $260K to $340K
- Scenario medians
- Players with Figures
- 13
- 3 floor only
| Player | Poss. Share | Speculative Best Guess | 80% Range | Range Graphic | Median % of Team Pool | Scenarios Z1 to Z4 | Floor Part | Evidence and Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Sevilla | 75.2% | $26K | $3K to $90K | 10.9% | $21K to $27K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Marcus Wilson | 66.5% | $45K | $13K to $140K | 14.6% | $37K to $48K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Isaiah Chappell | 61.6% | $25K | $4K to $79K | 9.9% | $20K to $26K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Brayden Fagbemi | 60.7% | $30K | $5K to $98K | 11.1% | $25K to $33K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Niko Rocak | 58.7% | $82K | $25K to $275K | 24.0% | $68K to $89K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Nils Cooper | 49.1% | $19K | $3K to $65K | 7.9% | $16K to $21K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Carl Daughtery Jr. | 47.9% | $20K | $4K to $67K | 8.0% | $17K to $22K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Omer Suljanovic | 35.3% | $9K | $2K to $35K | 3.9% | $7K to $9K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Jalen Stokes | 26.3% | $11K | $2K to $35K | 4.3% | $9K to $11K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Cyril Franklin Jr. | 9.4% | $4K | $1K to $12K | 1.2% | $3K to $4K | $2K | Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Chase Rawlins | 5.7% | $2K | $1K to $7K | 0.8% | $2K in all four | $2K | Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Abdullah Amzil | 2.5% | $2K | $1K to $7K | 0.8% | $2K in all four | $2K | Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Jonathan Noudjihidi | 1.1% | $2K | $1K to $7K | 0.8% | $2K in all four | $2K | Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Team Pool | — | $315K | $115K to $820K | 100% | $260K to $340K | — |
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)
Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.
| Measure | School-Reported Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Men's basketball revenue | $2,779,115 | Equals expenses (budget identity) |
| Men's basketball expenses | $2,779,115 | |
| Athletics department expenses | $46,854,471 | |
| Athletics department revenue | $46,854,471 |
Team Totalsβ
Season per 40 minutes, 31 games, 2,227 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Per 40 uses 1250 game minutes, 5 per overtime period. Definitions
| Statistic | Team | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 75.5 | 75.4 |
| Field goals made | 24.9 | 25.8 |
| Field goals attempted | 56.3 | 56.9 |
| 3-pointers made | 8.4 | 7.3 |
| 3-pointers attempted | 24.5 | 21.7 |
| Free throws made | 17.2 | 16.5 |
| Free throws attempted | 22.8 | 22.3 |
| Offensive rebounds | 8.6 | 10.4 |
| Defensive rebounds | 23.6 | 25.4 |
| Total rebounds | 32.2 | 35.8 |
| Assists | 15.0 | 13.3 |
| Blocks | 2.7 | 3.3 |
| Turnovers | 12.8 | 14.1 |
| Steals | No team figure. Players sum to 232. | |
| Personal fouls | No team figure. Players sum to 572. | |
| Minutes (derived) | 200.0 | not published |
31 of 31 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions
| Statistic | Status | Team Total, Logged Games | Sum of Players | Residual | Tolerance | Team Total, Games Without Logs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | Reconciled | 2,358 | 2,358 | 0 | ±11.8 | 0 |
| Field goals made | Reconciled | 779 | 779 | 0 | ±3.9 | 0 |
| Field goals attempted | Reconciled | 1,759 | 1,759 | 0 | ±8.8 | 0 |
| 3-pointers made | Reconciled | 263 | 263 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| 3-pointers attempted | Reconciled | 765 | 765 | 0 | ±3.8 | 0 |
| Free throws made | Reconciled | 537 | 537 | 0 | ±2.7 | 0 |
| Free throws attempted | Reconciled | 713 | 713 | 0 | ±3.6 | 0 |
| Offensive rebounds | No player split | not published | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| Defensive rebounds | No player split | not published | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| Total rebounds | Residual shown | 1,005 | 888 | +117 | ±80.4 | 0 |
| Assists | Reconciled | 468 | 467 | +1 | ±2.3 | 0 |
| Blocks | Reconciled | 84 | 84 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | Reconciled | 399 | 388 | +11 | ±12.0 | 0 |
| Steals | No team figure | not published | 232 | not published | not published | not published |
| Personal fouls | No team figure | not published | 572 | not published | not published | not published |
| Minutes (derived) | Reconciled | 6,250 | 6,232 | +18.5 | ±125.0 | 0 |
Model-Implied Player Valueβ
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.
| Player | Poss. Share | Net and Rangeβ | Range Graphic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Sevilla | 75.2% | -0.3range -1.5 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | |
| Marcus Wilson | 66.5% | +1.3range +0.0 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | |
| Isaiah Chappell | 61.6% | +0.1range -1.0 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | |
| Brayden Fagbemi | 60.7% | +0.5range -0.9 to +1.7Sufficient evidence | |
| Niko Rocak | 58.7% | +3.4range +2.3 to +4.5Sufficient evidence | |
| Nils Cooper | 49.1% | -0.2range -1.3 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | |
| Carl Daughtery Jr. | 47.9% | +0.1range -1.2 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | |
| Omer Suljanovic | 35.3% | -1.0range -1.9 to -0.1Sufficient evidence | |
| Jalen Stokes | 26.3% | -0.2range -1.3 to +0.8Sufficient evidence | |
| Cyril Franklin Jr. | 9.4% | -1.6range -2.3 to -1.0Limited evidence | |
| Chase Rawlins | 5.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | |
| Abdullah Amzil | 2.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | |
| Jonathan Noudjihidi | 1.1% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence |
Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β
Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology
- Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions
- +9.8range +8.9 to +10.6Sufficient evidence
200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.
10 valued players hold 98.1% of on-court time. 3 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 1.9%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 1.9%.