Tennessee St.

OVC · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 107 · Raw net 4.0 · Tempo 70.8 · 30 Division I games · Through 2026-03-20

Record: 20–10; 20 wins
AdjNet: 0.7β; rank 161 of 365
AdjO: 109.4β; rank 145 of 365
AdjD: 108.7β; rank 191 of 365
AdjT: 70.8β
SOS: -3.6β; rank 280 of 363
NCSOS: 7.3β
WAB: -4.3β; rank 92 of 363
RR: 1.6β
Exp. W: 18.4β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	109.6142	105.699	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	50.0235	51.6192	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	16.7177	19.828	16.7
Offensive rebound %	34.852	30.6183	30.6
FTA / FGA %	33.4228	41.4317	35.0
Shooting
3P%	33.3207	34.0183	33.9
2P%	50.0253	52.0192	51.7
FT%	76.052	72.6188	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	30.7	35.9	39.5
Assists / FGM %	45.5	50.3	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	10.6	7.7	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	24.5	27.4	31.4
2-pointers %	55.3	50.0	48.8
Free throws %	20.2	22.6	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 8.2
Top Three Share of Minutes: 48%
Bench Share of Minutes: 28%
Players with Logged Minutes: 14

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-08	Belmont	L 79–87	81.1	Away	0–1
11-16	Western Ky.	L 82–95	76.7	Away	0–2
11-20	Tennessee	L 60–89	79.3	Away	0–3
11-25	UNC Asheville	W 75–73	73.7	Away	1–3
11-30	Chattanooga	W 70–64	65.4	Away	2–3
12-03	Alabama A&M	L 53–80	65.2	Away	2–4
12-13	UNLV	W 63–60	71.2	Away	3–4
12-18	UT Martin	W 78–71	70.7	Home	4–4
12-20	Southeast Mo. St.	L 82–91	76.4	Home	4–5
12-30	Tennessee Tech	W 88–76	70.3	Away	5–5
01-03	Little Rock	W 84–79	74.4	Away	6–5
01-08	Western Ill.	W 90–68	72.0	Away	7–5
01-10	Eastern Ill.	L 70–74	68.3	Away	7–6
01-15	Morehead St.	W 105–100 1OT	77.8	Home	8–6
01-17	Southern Ind.	W 73–67	67.5	Home	9–6
01-22	SIUE	L 66–74	63.2	Away	9–7
01-24	Lindenwood	W 96–86	78.1	Away	10–7
01-29	Little Rock	W 70–63	69.1	Home	11–7
02-02	Tennessee Tech	L 85–90	69.0	Home	11–8
02-05	Eastern Ill.	W 77–68	69.0	Home	12–8
02-07	Western Ill.	W 83–56	68.1	Home	13–8
02-12	Southern Ind.	W 73–71	66.2	Away	14–8
02-14	Morehead St.	L 86–94	69.2	Away	14–9
02-19	Lindenwood	W 89–80	79.3	Home	15–9
02-21	SIUE	W 80–53	63.7	Home	16–9
02-26	Southeast Mo. St.	W 79–71	73.6	Away	17–9
02-28	UT Martin	W 67–42	66.0	Away	18–9
03-06	UT Martin	W 68–55	61.1	Neutral	19–9
03-07	Morehead St.	W 93–67	69.8	Neutral	20–9
03-20	Iowa St.	L 74–108	78.4	—	20–10

Roster · 14 players

Player logs in 30 of 30 team games

Team roster, season totals
Column groups	Minutes			Season Totals							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Dante Harris	30	33:09	82.5%	348	102	138	50	0	58	64	115–270	42.6%	15–49	30.6%†	73–103	70.9%	43.1%	47.8%	32.3%	5	34:16 +1:07	85.7%	11.8 +0.2
Aaron Nkrumah	30	32:14	80.2%	530	165	89	83	14	71	60	129–275	46.9%	46–135	34.1%	134–170	78.8%	48.3%	54.7%	41.5%	5	32:06 −0:07	80.3%	17.6 −0.1
Travis Harper II	30	31:47	79.1%	513	109	31	33	12	45	44	89–165	53.9%	77–190	40.5%	104–121	86.0%	57.6%	62.8%	34.1%	5	34:20 +2:33	85.8%	15.6 −1.5
Jalen Pitre	30	24:34	61.1%	177	191	26	33	19	35	86	68–109	62.4%	1–5	20.0%†	38–46	82.6%	61.0%	65.9%	40.4%	5	24:33 −0:01	61.4%	3.8 −2.1
Antoine Lorick III	30	22:19	55.6%	306	153	33	34	45	43	90	107–184	58.2%	10–38	26.3%†	62–94	66.0%	55.0%	58.1%	42.3%	5	26:04 +3:45	65.2%	15.4 +5.2
Carlous Williams	29	18:46	45.2%	145	87	16	6	13	30	65	41–87	47.1%	14–45	31.1%†	21–28	75.0%	47.0%	50.2%	21.2%	5	21:16 +2:30	53.2%	5.6 +0.6
Khalil London	21	14:24	25.1%	118	30	20	8	3	23	29	27–70	38.6%	14–58	24.1%	22–28	78.6%	37.5%	42.0%	21.9%	—	—	—	—
Kavien Jones	27	10:31	23.6%	71	67	4	5	4	6	43	32–53	60.4%†	1–4	25.0%†	4–9	44.4%†	58.8%†	58.2%†	15.8%†	5	7:27 −3:05	18.6%	2.0 −0.6
Jabrion Spikes	28	9:57	23.1%	74	30	7	11	3	10	44	27–44	61.4%†	5–19	26.3%†	5–7	71.4%†	54.8%†	56.0%†	11.1%†	5	13:11 +3:14	33.0%	2.4 −0.2
Damon Howard Jr	18	7:26	11.1%	32	15	13	4	0	7	8	6–21	28.6%†	5–17	29.4%†	5–6	83.3%†	35.5%†	39.4%†	15.8%†	4	3:48 −3:39	7.6%	1.5 −0.3
JC Brooks	16	7:10	9.5%	19	25	4	1	1	6	20	4–9	44.4%†	2–6	33.3%†	5–10	50.0%†	46.7%†	49.0%†	66.7%†	3	2:40 −4:31	4.0%	1.3 +0.1
Alex GarciaFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	7	2:23	1.4%	3	1	0	0	0	2	2	0–0	—	1–6	16.7%†	0–0	—	25.0%†	25.0%†	0.0%†	3	2:40 +0:17	4.0%	0.0 −0.4
Jean Yvens LafleurFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	2	5:56	1.0%	2	5	0	2	0	1	5	1–2	50.0%†	0–0	—	0–0	—	50.0%†	50.0%†	0.0%†	—	—	—	—
Jayden JonesFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	2	2:51	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0–3	0.0%†	0–1	0.0%†	0–0	—	0.0%†	0.0%†	0.0%†	—	—	—	—
Team, games with logs · season totals	30 games			2338	1088	381	not published	115	356	not published	646–1292	50.0%	191–573	33.3%	473–622	76.0%	50.0%	54.7%	33.4%
Sum of players				2338	980	381	270	114	337	561	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0	+108	0	not published	+1	+19	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $205K; 80% Range $78K to $545K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $195K to $215K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 3 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Dante Harris	83.2%	$29K	$9K to $81K	15.6%	$27K to $30K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aaron Nkrumah	80.1%	$39K	$13K to $110K	18.2%	$37K to $40K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Travis Harper II	79.1%	$50K	$17K to $145K	22.6%	$47K to $52K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jalen Pitre	61.9%	$31K	$10K to $90K	14.7%	$30K to $33K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Antoine Lorick III	55.8%	$9K	$1K to $36K	6.0%	$9K to $10K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Carlous Williams	44.2%	$10K	$2K to $33K	6.1%	$9K to $10K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Khalil London	25.0%	$3K	$1K to $12K	1.1%	$3K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kavien Jones	23.7%	$7K	$2K to $21K	3.9%	$6K to $7K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jabrion Spikes	23.4%	$4K	$1K to $15K	2.5%	$4K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Damon Howard Jr	11.4%	$3K	$1K to $10K	1.9%	$3K to $4K	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
JC Brooks	9.0%	$3K	$1K to $8K	1.4%	$2K to $3K	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Alex Garcia	1.4%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jean Yvens Lafleur	1.1%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jayden Jones	0.5%	$1K	$0 to $4K	0.7%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$205K	$78K to $545K	100%	$195K to $215K	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Tennessee State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$1,633,260	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$1,633,260
Athletics department expenses	$18,622,127
Athletics department revenue	$18,708,180

Team Totalsβ

Season totals, 30 games, 2,133 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	2,338	2,252
Field goals made	837	769
Field goals attempted	1,865	1,689
3-pointers made	191	206
3-pointers attempted	573	606
Free throws made	473	508
Free throws attempted	622	700
Offensive rebounds	384	310
Defensive rebounds	704	720
Total rebounds	1,088	1,030
Assists	381	387
Blocks	115	99
Turnovers	356	423
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 270.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 561.
Minutes (derived)	6,025	not published

30 of 30 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,338	2,338	0	±11.7	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	837	837	0	±4.2	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,865	1,865	0	±9.3	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	191	191	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	573	573	0	±2.9	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	473	473	0	±2.4	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	622	622	0	±3.1	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	1,088	980	+108	±87.0	0
Assists	Reconciled	381	381	0	±2.0	0
Blocks	Reconciled	115	114	+1	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	356	337	+19	±10.7	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	270	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	561	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	6,025	6,013	+12.2	±120.5	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Dante Harris	83.2%	+1.3range +0.2 to +2.4Sufficient evidence
Aaron Nkrumah	80.1%	+2.1range +1.1 to +3.3Sufficient evidence
Travis Harper II	79.1%	+3.1range +1.6 to +4.3Sufficient evidence
Jalen Pitre	61.9%	+2.3range +1.1 to +3.6Sufficient evidence
Antoine Lorick III	55.8%	-0.7range -2.1 to +1.0Sufficient evidence
Carlous Williams	44.2%	+0.1range -0.8 to +1.3Sufficient evidence
Khalil London	25.0%	-2.5range -3.2 to -1.6Sufficient evidence
Kavien Jones	23.7%	+0.4range -0.8 to +1.6Sufficient evidence
Jabrion Spikes	23.4%	-0.9range -2.1 to +0.3Sufficient evidence
Damon Howard Jr	11.4%	-0.1range -0.8 to +0.6Limited evidence
JC Brooks	9.0%	-0.8range -1.4 to -0.2Limited evidence
Alex Garcia	1.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Jean Yvens Lafleur	1.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Jayden Jones	0.5%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +10.5range +9.7 to +11.5Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

11 valued players hold 99.4% of on-court time. 3 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 0.6%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 4.1%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value