Central Conn. St.

NEC · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 213 · Raw net -2.1 · Tempo 65.2 · 28 Division I games · Through 2026-03-04

Record: 16–12; 16 wins
AdjNet: -8.0β; rank 283 of 365
AdjO: 105.8β; rank 231 of 365
AdjD: 113.8β; rank 306 of 365
AdjT: 66.2β
SOS: -7.5β; rank 352 of 363
NCSOS: -0.4β
WAB: -8.5β; rank 196 of 363
RR: 1.8β
Exp. W: 14.2β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	107.7190	109.8218	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	51.6165	50.2111	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	16.2153	14.0336	16.7
Offensive rebound %	27.5281	30.4177	30.6
FTA / FGA %	31.2276	26.922	35.0
Shooting
3P%	35.868	33.4145	33.9
2P%	50.5231	50.3112	51.7
FT%	76.738	77.2358	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	34.9	39.3	39.5
Assists / FGM %	50.9	54.0	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	10.9	6.5	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	29.5	32.5	31.4
2-pointers %	51.7	50.4	48.8
Free throws %	18.8	17.1	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 8.7
Top Three Share of Minutes: 46%
Bench Share of Minutes: 29%
Players with Logged Minutes: 13

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-06	Quinnipiac	L 49–71	69.0	Away	0–1
11-11	Boston College	W 60–59	65.5	Away	1–1
11-16	Massachusetts	L 77–84	77.8	Away	1–2
11-21	Rutgers	W 67–54	62.2	Away	2–2
11-24	Sacred Heart	W 108–106 1OT	81.5	Home	3–2
12-03	Seton Hall	L 61–77	63.4	Away	3–3
12-07	Northeastern	L 56–73	68.4	Away	3–4
12-13	Binghamton	W 84–67	65.3	Away	4–4
12-18	Fairfield	L 70–84	66.2	Home	4–5
01-02	LIU	L 78–84	58.5	Away	4–6
01-04	New Haven	W 72–61	58.4	Home	5–6
01-08	Stonehill	W 76–69	66.3	Home	6–6
01-10	Le Moyne	W 69–59	71.0	Away	7–6
01-17	Saint Francis	W 98–90	68.3	Away	8–6
01-19	Mercyhurst	L 61–79	61.5	Away	8–7
01-23	FDU	L 66–76	58.7	Home	8–8
01-26	Stonehill	L 59–61	65.7	Away	8–9
01-29	Wagner	W 62–55	60.0	Away	9–9
01-31	LIU	L 59–80	66.2	Home	9–10
02-05	Chicago St.	W 78–67	62.3	Home	10–10
02-07	Wagner	W 84–67	65.7	Home	11–10
02-12	New Haven	W 81–76	69.0	Away	12–10
02-14	FDU	W 63–57	56.5	Away	13–10
02-19	Le Moyne	W 78–77	70.8	Home	14–10
02-21	Chicago St.	L 51–70	61.9	Away	14–11
02-26	Mercyhurst	W 80–78	68.0	Home	15–11
02-28	Saint Francis	W 69–64	64.9	Home	16–11
03-04	Wagner	L 60–70	61.4	Home	16–12

Roster · 13 players

Player logs in 28 of 28 team games

Team roster, season totals
Column groups	Minutes			Season Totals							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Darin Smith, Jr.	28	33:14	82.7%	577	148	32	18	7	48	50	131–277	47.3%	54–145	37.2%	153–171	89.5%	50.2%	58.0%	40.5%	5	35:20 +2:06	88.3%	22.8 +2.2
Jay Rodgers	28	30:09	75.0%	309	62	194	11	2	77	36	73–162	45.1%	32–89	36.0%	67–82	81.7%	48.2%	53.8%	32.7%	5	28:11 −1:58	70.4%	8.2 −2.8
Max Frazier	28	28:52	71.9%	335	198	24	25	50	39	70	143–220	65.0%	0–2	0.0%†	49–81	60.5%	64.4%	65.0%	36.5%	5	31:19 +2:27	78.3%	11.6 −0.4
James Jones	24	29:53	63.7%	98	135	31	19	16	21	22	32–79	40.5%	7–26	26.9%†	13–22	59.1%†	40.5%	42.7%	21.0%	5	31:42 +1:49	79.3%	4.4 +0.3
Melo Sanchez	27	25:09	60.4%	262	57	20	25	4	24	46	36–71	50.7%	56–131	42.7%	22–28	78.6%	59.4%	61.1%	13.9%	5	27:33 +2:24	68.9%	11.8 +2.1
Elijah Parker	27	14:20	34.4%	55	50	20	19	3	21	45	16–36	44.4%†	5–21	23.8%†	8–19	42.1%†	41.2%†	42.1%†	33.3%†	5	12:47 −1:33	31.9%	0.4 −1.6
Daniel Etiosa James	26	12:44	29.4%	82	78	9	8	5	10	44	25–44	56.8%†	5–20	25.0%†	17–23	73.9%†	50.8%†	55.3%†	35.9%†	5	7:41 −5:04	19.2%	0.6 −2.6
Roddy Jones	21	10:21	19.3%	79	9	3	5	1	4	3	2–6	33.3%†	25–67	37.3%	0–0	—	54.1%†	54.1%†	0.0%†	4	11:09 +0:48	22.3%	3.0 −0.8
Ashton Reynolds	21	10:04	18.8%	71	36	5	4	10	6	29	17–34	50.0%†	6–18	33.3%†	19–23	82.6%†	50.0%†	57.1%†	44.2%†	4	8:59 −1:05	18.0%	3.5 +0.1
Nico Ashley	16	9:00	12.8%	44	20	5	7	9	6	19	16–27	59.3%†	1–9	11.1%†	9–13	69.2%†	48.6%†	52.7%†	36.1%†	2	4:05 −4:55	4.1%	2.0 −0.8
Gabe SpinelliFew games	9	14:20	11.5%	31	12	4	5	0	9	12	9–21	42.9%†	2–6	33.3%†	7–7	100.0%†	44.4%†	51.5%†	25.9%†	—	—	—	—
Ja'Kobe WilliamsFew games	6	17:28	9.3%	18	15	11	4	0	6	8	5–17	29.4%†	1–7	14.3%†	5–8	62.5%†	27.1%†	32.7%†	33.3%†	—	—	—	—
Jayden MottUnder 100 minutes	12	8:19	8.9%	15	20	1	1	3	9	13	6–17	35.3%†	0–1	0.0%†	3–8	37.5%†	33.3%†	34.9%†	44.4%†	5	7:14 −1:05	18.1%	1.8 +0.6
Team, games with logs · season totals	28 games			1976	926	359	not published	110	298	not published	511–1011	50.5%	194–542	35.8%	372–485	76.7%	51.6%	55.9%	31.2%
Sum of players				1976	840	359	151	110	280	397	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0	+86	0	not published	0	+18	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $0 (assumed opted out); 80% Range $0 to $0 (assumed)
Tier: Low and other; low evidence

Assumed from one unverified press article that names schools that did not opt in. Methodology

No player figures. The Team Pool is $0.

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

No modelled Team Pool (opted out). Enter a pool of your own.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Central Connecticut State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$1,261,296	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$1,261,296
Athletics department expenses	$16,112,139
Athletics department revenue	$16,112,139

Team Totalsβ

Season totals, 28 games, 1,834 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	1,976	2,015
Field goals made	705	726
Field goals attempted	1,553	1,663
3-pointers made	194	218
3-pointers attempted	542	653
Free throws made	372	345
Free throws attempted	485	447
Offensive rebounds	247	297
Defensive rebounds	679	652
Total rebounds	926	949
Assists	359	392
Blocks	110	66
Turnovers	298	256
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 151.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 397.
Minutes (derived)	5,625	not published

28 of 28 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	1,976	1,976	0	±9.9	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	705	705	0	±3.5	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,553	1,553	0	±7.8	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	194	194	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	542	542	0	±2.7	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	372	372	0	±2.0	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	485	485	0	±2.4	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	926	840	+86	±74.1	0
Assists	Reconciled	359	359	0	±2.0	0
Blocks	Reconciled	110	110	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Residual shown	298	280	+18	±8.9	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	151	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	397	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	5,625	5,604	+20.8	±112.5	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Darin Smith, Jr.	82.6%	+0.9range -0.5 to +2.2Sufficient evidence
Jay Rodgers	75.3%	+0.5range -0.5 to +1.6Sufficient evidence
Max Frazier	72.1%	-0.1range -1.3 to +1.0Sufficient evidence
James Jones	64.9%	-0.0range -1.0 to +1.0Sufficient evidence
Melo Sanchez	59.2%	+0.3range -0.8 to +1.7Sufficient evidence
Elijah Parker	33.4%	-0.5range -1.8 to +0.9Sufficient evidence
Daniel Etiosa James	30.0%	-0.8range -1.7 to +0.3Sufficient evidence
Roddy Jones	18.9%	-0.5range -1.4 to +0.3Sufficient evidence
Ashton Reynolds	18.0%	-1.3range -2.4 to -0.3Sufficient evidence
Nico Ashley	13.5%	-0.2range -1.0 to +0.6Limited evidence
Gabe Spinelli	12.7%	-2.8range -3.7 to -2.0Limited evidence
Ja'Kobe Williams	10.7%	-1.0range -1.5 to -0.5Limited evidence
Jayden Mott	8.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +9.3range +8.4 to +10.3Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

12 valued players hold 98.3% of on-court time. 1 without a value (under 300 possessions) holds 1.7%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 7.4%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value