Little Rock
OVC · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 284 · Raw net -7.8 · Tempo 67.6 · 30 Division I games · Through 2026-03-04
Scouting Report
| Category | Offense | Defense | D-I Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | |||
| Efficiency / 100 poss. | 101.9305 | 109.7214 | 108.5 |
| Four Factors | |||
| Effective FG% | 49.4273 | 51.8200 | 51.4 |
| TO / 100 poss. | 18.4292 | 18.570 | 16.7 |
| Offensive rebound % | 31.5143 | 36.6357 | 30.6 |
| FTA / FGA % | 27.7345 | 33.1134 | 35.0 |
| Shooting | |||
| 3P% | 35.396 | 34.4212 | 33.9 |
| 2P% | 47.9313 | 51.9188 | 51.7 |
| FT% | 68.0326 | 69.226 | 72.5 |
| Style | |||
| 3PA / FGA % | 31.0 | 40.3 | 39.5 |
| Assists / FGM % | 52.2 | 53.7 | 52.6 |
| Blocks / opp. 2PA % | 12.5 | 5.6 | 9.5 |
| Point Distribution | |||
| 3-pointers % | 27.9 | 32.9 | 31.4 |
| 2-pointers % | 56.1 | 49.0 | 48.8 |
| Free throws % | 16.0 | 18.1 | 19.8 |
Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.
Rotation Depth
- Effective Rotation Size
- 7.6
- Top Three Share of Minutes
- 49%
- Bench Share of Minutes
- 23%
- Players with Logged Minutes
- 11
Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions
Schedule and Results
| Date | Opponent | Result | Poss. | Site | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-10 | Milwaukee | L 72–92 | 69.5 | Away | 0–1 |
| 11-12 | Marquette | L 49–89 | 66.9 | Away | 0–2 |
| 11-15 | Ball St. | W 68–62 | 67.1 | Away | 1–2 |
| 11-18 | Murray St. | L 68–89 | 66.3 | Away | 1–3 |
| 11-21 | Texas St. | L 56–65 | 64.6 | Away | 1–4 |
| 11-29 | Southern Ill. | L 65–74 | 63.9 | Away | 1–5 |
| 12-03 | Central Ark. | L 47–85 | 71.5 | Away | 1–6 |
| 12-06 | Arkansas St. | L 78–90 | 71.7 | Home | 1–7 |
| 12-09 | West Virginia | L 58–90 | 62.8 | Away | 1–8 |
| 12-16 | Morehead St. | L 64–78 | 74.4 | Away | 1–9 |
| 12-18 | Southern Ind. | W 77–62 | 67.3 | Away | 2–9 |
| 01-01 | Tennessee Tech | W 77–58 | 67.8 | Home | 3–9 |
| 01-03 | Tennessee St. | L 79–84 | 74.4 | Home | 3–10 |
| 01-08 | SIUE | W 73–70 | 62.7 | Away | 4–10 |
| 01-10 | Lindenwood | W 82–74 | 68.7 | Away | 5–10 |
| 01-15 | Eastern Ill. | W 74–63 | 64.4 | Home | 6–10 |
| 01-17 | Western Ill. | W 86–79 | 67.5 | Home | 7–10 |
| 01-22 | Southeast Mo. St. | L 65–70 | 68.0 | Away | 7–11 |
| 01-29 | Tennessee St. | L 63–70 | 69.1 | Away | 7–12 |
| 01-31 | Tennessee Tech | L 77–87 | 68.0 | Away | 7–13 |
| 02-03 | UT Martin | L 52–55 | 62.1 | Away | 7–14 |
| 02-05 | Lindenwood | L 74–79 | 67.8 | Home | 7–15 |
| 02-07 | SIUE | L 61–71 | 67.4 | Home | 7–16 |
| 02-12 | Western Ill. | W 77–58 | 70.9 | Away | 8–16 |
| 02-14 | Eastern Ill. | L 72–78 | 66.4 | Away | 8–17 |
| 02-19 | UT Martin | W 67–65 | 59.6 | Home | 9–17 |
| 02-21 | Southeast Mo. St. | L 65–70 | 68.2 | Home | 9–18 |
| 02-26 | Morehead St. | L 70–76 | 64.5 | Home | 9–19 |
| 02-28 | Southern Ind. | W 89–70 | 67.0 | Home | 10–19 |
| 03-04 | Lindenwood | L 62–72 | 77.4 | Neutral | 10–20 |
Roster · 11 players
Player logs in 30 of 30 team games
| Column groups | Minutes | Per 40 Minutes | Shooting | Last Five Team Games | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | MPG | Team Min% | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO | PF | 2P | 2P% | 3P | 3P% | FT | FT% | eFG% | TS% | FTA/FGA | G | MPG | Min% | Pts/G |
| Johnathan Lawson | 29 | 36:06 | 87.2% | 17.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 77–176 | 43.8% | 70–201 | 34.8% | 92–112 | 82.1% | 48.3% | 53.5% | 29.7% | 4 | 37:14 +1:09 | 74.5% | 15.5 −0.2 |
| Braxton Bayless | 30 | 33:11 | 82.9% | 12.4 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 85–194 | 43.8% | 30–91 | 33.0% | 49–69 | 71.0% | 45.6% | 49.0% | 24.2% | 5 | 33:12 +0:02 | 83.0% | 8.0 −2.3 |
| Kachi Nzeh | 30 | 28:43 | 71.8% | 16.2 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 81–164 | 49.4% | 46–114 | 40.4% | 48–69 | 69.6% | 54.0% | 56.4% | 24.8% | 5 | 31:52 +3:08 | 79.7% | 14.8 +3.2 |
| Cameron Wallace | 30 | 28:26 | 71.1% | 17.0 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 148–294 | 50.3% | 1–18 | 5.6%† | 64–112 | 57.1% | 47.9% | 50.2% | 35.9% | 5 | 33:09 +4:44 | 82.9% | 14.6 +2.5 |
| Tuongthach Gatkek | 27 | 31:12 | 70.2% | 11.5 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 101–170 | 59.4% | 1–4 | 25.0%† | 38–57 | 66.7% | 58.9% | 61.0% | 32.8% | 5 | 32:10 +0:58 | 80.4% | 8.8 −0.2 |
| Truman Claytor IV | 27 | 16:03 | 36.1% | 15.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 41–96 | 42.7% | 22–63 | 34.9% | 20–27 | 74.1% | 46.5% | 49.2% | 17.0% | 5 | 6:23 −9:40 | 16.0% | 2.8 −3.4 |
| Caleb Pennyfeather | 28 | 11:42 | 27.3% | 7.3 | 7.8 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 27–62 | 43.5%† | 1–1 | 100.0%† | 3–10 | 30.0%† | 45.2%† | 44.5%† | 15.9%† | 4 | 6:10 −5:32 | 12.3% | 0.5 −1.6 |
| Tracy Steele Jr. | 22 | 11:33 | 21.2% | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4–16 | 25.0%† | 8–18 | 44.4%† | 6–15 | 40.0%† | 47.1%† | 46.8%† | 44.1%† | 3 | 14:46 +3:13 | 22.1% | 3.7 +1.9 |
| Joseph Thomas | 12 | 11:00 | 11.0% | 12.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 4–16 | 25.0%† | 10–22 | 45.5%† | 4–5 | 80.0%† | 50.0%† | 52.2%† | 13.2%† | 5 | 19:09 +8:09 | 47.9% | 6.6 +3.1 |
| Terrion BurgessFew games | 5 | 23:23 | 9.7% | 12.7 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 12–16 | 75.0%† | 2–6 | 33.3%† | 7–9 | 77.8%† | 68.2%† | 71.3%† | 40.9%† | — | — | — | — |
| Christian HughesFew games | 7 | 16:03 | 9.4% | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 5.0 | 0–8 | 0.0%† | 1–6 | 16.7%† | 0–2 | 0.0%† | 10.7%† | 10.1%† | 14.3%† | — | — | — | — |
| Team, games with logs · per 40 team minutes | 30 games | 68.9 | 33.3 | 13.4 | not published | 4.4 | 12.5 | not published | 580–1212 | 47.9% | 192–544 | 35.3% | 331–487 | 68.0% | 49.4% | 52.5% | 27.7% | ||||||
| Sum of players | 68.9 | 30.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 11.6 | 15.9 | Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals. | |||||||||||||||
| Residual: team minus players | 0.0 | +3.4 | 0.0 | not published | 0.0 | +0.8 | not published | ||||||||||||||||
G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.
Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β
Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.
- Team Pool
- $180K
- 80% Range $69K to $505K
- Tier
- Low and other
- low evidence
- Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4
- $165K to $225K
- Scenario medians
- Players with Figures
- 11
The widest scenario range, $87K to $620K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology
| Player | Poss. Share | Speculative Best Guess | 80% Range | Range Graphic | Median % of Team Pool | Scenarios Z1 to Z4 | Floor Part | Evidence and Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnathan Lawson | 90.8% | $11K | $1K to $57K | 10.5% | $10K to $14K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Braxton Bayless | 83.5% | $5K | $1K to $33K | 1.4% | $4K to $6K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Kachi Nzeh | 71.3% | $22K | $2K to $79K | 14.3% | $20K to $27K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Cameron Wallace | 70.0% | $33K | $8K to $110K | 17.5% | $30K to $41K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Tuongthach Gatkek | 69.2% | $57K | $18K to $195K | 28.7% | $53K to $72K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Truman Claytor IV | 38.0% | $5K | $1K to $23K | 3.7% | $4K to $6K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Caleb Pennyfeather | 28.0% | $3K | $1K to $15K | 1.4% | $3K to $4K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Tracy Steele Jr. | 19.9% | $4K | $1K to $15K | 2.9% | $4K to $5K | $2K | Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Christian Hughes | 10.5% | $2K | $1K to $7K | 1.3% | $2K to $3K | $2K | Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Terrion Burgess | 10.5% | $5K | $1K to $15K | 2.9% | $4K to $6K | $2K | Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Joseph Thomas | 8.3% | $4K | $1K to $11K | 2.3% | $3K to $4K | $2K | Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data | |
| Team Pool | — | $180K | $69K to $505K | 100% | $165K to $225K | — |
What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ
Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.
School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)
Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.
| Measure | School-Reported Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Men's basketball revenue | $2,226,185 | Equals expenses (budget identity) |
| Men's basketball expenses | $2,226,185 | |
| Athletics department expenses | $12,718,000 | |
| Athletics department revenue | $12,718,000 |
Team Totalsβ
Season per 40 minutes, 30 games, 2,028 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Per 40 uses 1200 game minutes, 5 per overtime period. Definitions
| Statistic | Team | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 68.9 | 74.2 |
| Field goals made | 25.7 | 26.3 |
| Field goals attempted | 58.5 | 58.7 |
| 3-pointers made | 6.4 | 8.1 |
| 3-pointers attempted | 18.1 | 23.7 |
| Free throws made | 11.0 | 13.4 |
| Free throws attempted | 16.2 | 19.4 |
| Offensive rebounds | 11.1 | 12.8 |
| Defensive rebounds | 22.2 | 24.2 |
| Total rebounds | 33.3 | 37.0 |
| Assists | 13.4 | 14.1 |
| Blocks | 4.4 | 2.3 |
| Turnovers | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| Steals | No team figure. Players sum to 226. | |
| Personal fouls | No team figure. Players sum to 476. | |
| Minutes (derived) | 200.0 | not published |
30 of 30 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions
| Statistic | Status | Team Total, Logged Games | Sum of Players | Residual | Tolerance | Team Total, Games Without Logs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | Reconciled | 2,067 | 2,067 | 0 | ±10.3 | 0 |
| Field goals made | Reconciled | 772 | 772 | 0 | ±3.9 | 0 |
| Field goals attempted | Reconciled | 1,756 | 1,756 | 0 | ±8.8 | 0 |
| 3-pointers made | Reconciled | 192 | 192 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| 3-pointers attempted | Reconciled | 544 | 544 | 0 | ±2.7 | 0 |
| Free throws made | Reconciled | 331 | 331 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| Free throws attempted | Reconciled | 487 | 487 | 0 | ±2.4 | 0 |
| Offensive rebounds | No player split | not published | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| Defensive rebounds | No player split | not published | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| Total rebounds | Residual shown | 1,000 | 899 | +101 | ±80.0 | 0 |
| Assists | Reconciled | 403 | 403 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| Blocks | Reconciled | 131 | 131 | 0 | ±2.0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | Residual shown | 374 | 349 | +25 | ±11.2 | 0 |
| Steals | No team figure | not published | 226 | not published | not published | not published |
| Personal fouls | No team figure | not published | 476 | not published | not published | not published |
| Minutes (derived) | Reconciled | 6,000 | 5,975 | +25.2 | ±120.0 | 0 |
Model-Implied Player Valueβ
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.
Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.
| Player | Poss. Share | Net and Rangeβ | Range Graphic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnathan Lawson | 90.8% | -1.6range -2.6 to -0.3Sufficient evidence | |
| Braxton Bayless | 83.5% | -3.3range -4.6 to -2.2Sufficient evidence | |
| Kachi Nzeh | 71.3% | -0.2range -1.8 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | |
| Cameron Wallace | 70.0% | +0.7range -0.4 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | |
| Tuongthach Gatkek | 69.2% | +2.1range +0.8 to +3.1Sufficient evidence | |
| Truman Claytor IV | 38.0% | -1.8range -2.7 to -1.0Sufficient evidence | |
| Caleb Pennyfeather | 28.0% | -2.8range -4.1 to -1.5Sufficient evidence | |
| Tracy Steele Jr. | 19.9% | -1.5range -2.5 to -0.4Sufficient evidence | |
| Christian Hughes | 10.5% | -3.6range -4.2 to -2.8Limited evidence | |
| Terrion Burgess | 10.5% | -0.2range -1.2 to +0.9Limited evidence | |
| Joseph Thomas | 8.3% | -0.3range -0.8 to +0.2Limited evidence |
Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β
Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology
- Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions
- +8.6range +7.7 to +9.5Sufficient evidence
200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.
11 valued players hold 100.0% of on-court time. 0 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 0.0%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 5.9%.