Ark Little Rock

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Ark Little Rock, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Johnathan Lawson	90.8%	-1.6range -2.6 to -0.3Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.6 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $57KLoading
Braxton Bayless	83.5%	-3.3range -4.6 to -2.2Sufficient evidence	+3.1range +2.5 to +3.7Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $33KLoading
Kachi Nzeh	71.3%	-0.2range -1.8 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	+3.8range +3.2 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	$22KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $79KLoading
Cameron Wallace	70.0%	+0.7range -0.4 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.6 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$33KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $110KLoading
Tuongthach Gatkek	69.2%	+2.1range +0.8 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+4.5range +4.2 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	$57KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $195KLoading
Truman Claytor IV	38.0%	-1.8range -2.7 to -1.0Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.6 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $23KLoading
Caleb Pennyfeather	28.0%	-2.8range -4.1 to -1.5Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +0.9 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $15KLoading
Tracy Steele Jr.	19.9%	-1.5range -2.5 to -0.4Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.8 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $15KLoading
Christian Hughes	10.5%	-3.6range -4.2 to -2.8Limited evidence	+0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Limited evidence	$2KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $7KLoading
Terrion Burgess	10.5%	-0.2range -1.2 to +0.9Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.5 to +0.7Limited evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $15KLoading
Joseph Thomas	8.3%	-0.3range -0.8 to +0.2Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $11KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $180K; 80% Range $69K to $505K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $165K to $225K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 11

The widest scenario range, $87K to $620K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Johnathan Lawson	90.8%	$11K	$1K to $57K	10.5%	$10K to $14K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Braxton Bayless	83.5%	$5K	$1K to $33K	1.4%	$4K to $6K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kachi Nzeh	71.3%	$22K	$2K to $79K	14.3%	$20K to $27K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cameron Wallace	70.0%	$33K	$8K to $110K	17.5%	$30K to $41K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tuongthach Gatkek	69.2%	$57K	$18K to $195K	28.7%	$53K to $72K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Truman Claytor IV	38.0%	$5K	$1K to $23K	3.7%	$4K to $6K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Caleb Pennyfeather	28.0%	$3K	$1K to $15K	1.4%	$3K to $4K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tracy Steele Jr.	19.9%	$4K	$1K to $15K	2.9%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Christian Hughes	10.5%	$2K	$1K to $7K	1.3%	$2K to $3K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Terrion Burgess	10.5%	$5K	$1K to $15K	2.9%	$4K to $6K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Joseph Thomas	8.3%	$4K	$1K to $11K	2.3%	$3K to $4K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$180K	$69K to $505K	100%	$165K to $225K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Arkansas at Little Rock (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,226,185	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,226,185
Athletics department expenses	$12,718,000
Athletics department revenue	$12,718,000

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (93%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$2,226,185	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,226,185	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	11
3 or more days	18

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.6
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	10
Longest run of consecutive away games	7

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology