South Dakota St.

Sum · 2025–26 · Raw net rank 182 · Raw net -0.2 · Tempo 67.9 · 29 Division I games · Through 2026-03-05

Record: 11–18; 11 wins
AdjNet: -1.7β; rank 198 of 365
AdjO: 108.3β; rank 176 of 365
AdjD: 109.9β; rank 219 of 365
AdjT: 67.9β
SOS: -1.9β; rank 222 of 363
NCSOS: 3.4β
WAB: -11.9β; rank 259 of 363
RR: -4.0β
Exp. W: 15.0β

Scouting Report

Scouting report with national ranks
Category	Offense	Defense	D-I Average
Efficiency
Efficiency / 100 poss.	109.1157	109.3204	108.5
Four Factors
Effective FG%	52.0143	51.8205	51.4
TO / 100 poss.	16.1148	14.5321	16.7
Offensive rebound %	30.3186	25.19	30.6
FTA / FGA %	29.7316	34.5161	35.0
Shooting
3P%	34.0175	34.1191	33.9
2P%	52.7143	52.4219	51.7
FT%	72.0209	74.5296	72.5
Style
3PA / FGA %	38.8	47.0	39.5
Assists / FGM %	51.3	52.7	52.6
Blocks / opp. 2PA %	7.1	7.8	9.5
Point Distribution
3-pointers %	31.6	37.2	31.4
2-pointers %	51.4	42.9	48.8
Free throws %	17.1	19.9	19.8

Best · Median · Worst · Mark: further right is a better national rank, of 365 teams.

Rotation Depth

Effective Rotation Size: 8.0
Top Three Share of Minutes: 48%
Bench Share of Minutes: 26%
Players with Logged Minutes: 13

Bench: players outside the top five in minutes. Definitions

Schedule and Results

Schedule and results
Date	Opponent	Result	Poss.	Site	Record
11-03	Merrimack	W 75–66	70.1	Neutral	1–0
11-09	UNI	L 58–65	63.6	Away	1–1
11-12	Oregon	L 69–83	70.6	Away	1–2
11-21	Georgia St.	W 105–58	71.6	Home	2–2
11-25	Utah Valley	L 52–75	69.9	Neutral	2–3
11-26	UC Irvine	L 52–64	74.2	Neutral	2–4
12-03	Northern Ariz.	W 75–62	68.5	Away	3–4
12-06	Idaho	L 81–84	68.7	Home	3–5
12-09	Ball St.	W 68–64	63.4	Away	4–5
12-15	Wyoming	L 72–87	67.0	Neutral	4–6
12-19	Milwaukee	L 87–88	68.6	Neutral	4–7
12-29	Arizona	L 71–99	77.9	Away	4–8
01-01	Omaha	W 84–69	70.0	Home	5–8
01-03	North Dakota	L 87–90 1OT	69.7	Away	5–9
01-08	Denver	W 87–79	69.5	Home	6–9
01-14	North Dakota St.	L 65–76	64.7	Away	6–10
01-17	Kansas City	W 90–62	65.2	Home	7–10
01-22	St. Thomas (MN)	L 69–74	69.8	Away	7–11
01-28	Omaha	L 71–80	70.2	Away	7–12
01-31	Oral Roberts	W 95–72	73.3	Home	8–12
02-04	St. Thomas (MN)	L 62–77	62.4	Home	8–13
02-07	South Dakota	L 67–68	69.7	Home	8–14
02-12	Denver	L 61–79	63.4	Away	8–15
02-14	Oral Roberts	W 87–69	66.2	Away	9–15
02-18	North Dakota St.	L 66–74	65.5	Home	9–16
02-21	North Dakota	W 91–83	65.8	Home	10–16
02-26	Kansas City	W 73–59	64.1	Away	11–16
02-28	South Dakota	L 70–75	69.4	Away	11–17
03-05	St. Thomas (MN)	L 67–80	64.3	Neutral	11–18

Roster · 13 players

Player logs in 29 of 29 team games

Team roster, per game
Column groups	Minutes			Per Game							Shooting									Last Five Team Games
Player	G	MPG	Team Min%	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	TO	PF	2P	2P%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FTA/FGA	G	MPG	Min%	Pts/G
Joe Sayler	29	33:11	82.6%	14.8	3.6	2.2	0.4	0.1	1.9	1.5	87–198	43.9%	62–153	40.5%	68–81	84.0%	51.3%	55.3%	23.1%	5	36:25 +3:13	91.0%	17.4 +2.6
Jaden Jackson	29	32:23	80.6%	12.3	4.3	2.6	1.5	0.1	1.3	2.2	59–134	44.0%	63–198	31.8%	51–65	78.5%	46.2%	49.6%	19.6%	5	34:14 +1:51	85.6%	9.2 −3.1
Kalen Garry	29	29:42	73.9%	10.6	5.1	3.3	0.6	0.1	1.6	2.7	65–130	50.0%	49–138	35.5%	30–47	63.8%	51.7%	53.2%	17.5%	5	26:13 −3:29	65.6%	8.6 −2.0
Matthew Mors	29	28:14	70.3%	8.8	4.4	1.2	1.1	0.6	0.9	2.3	74–114	64.9%	23–73	31.5%	38–45	84.4%	58.0%	61.7%	24.1%	5	34:49 +6:35	87.0%	12.6 +3.8
Damon Wilkinson	29	24:24	60.7%	14.1	6.3	1.2	0.4	0.8	1.7	2.7	155–264	58.7%	0–1	0.0%†	99–139	71.2%	58.5%	62.7%	52.5%	5	26:39 +2:15	66.6%	16.0 +1.9
Alec Squires	29	14:28	36.0%	4.4	3.0	0.7	0.3	0.2	1.0	1.8	45–78	57.7%†	0–0	—	37–58	63.8%	57.7%†	61.3%†	74.4%†	5	12:58 −1:30	32.4%	4.2 −0.2
Luke Haertle	27	14:50	34.4%	3.7	2.9	1.3	0.6	0.1	1.1	1.2	25–59	42.4%†	9–34	26.5%†	23–38	60.5%	41.4%†	45.6%†	40.9%†	5	23:51 +9:01	59.6%	5.4 +1.7
Bubz Alvarez	18	14:54	23.0%	4.5	2.4	0.8	0.6	0.0	0.9	1.7	26–47	55.3%†	4–17	23.5%†	17–30	56.7%	50.0%†	52.5%†	46.9%†	—	—	—	—
Caleb Delzell	26	8:39	19.3%	1.2	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.3	1.1	5–15	33.3%†	7–21	33.3%†	0–3	0.0%†	43.1%†	41.5%†	8.3%†	5	4:07 −4:32	10.3%	0.0 −1.2
Jaden Rogers	12	8:36	8.9%	1.8	1.5	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	1.3	7–7	100.0%†	2–10	20.0%†	2–2	100.0%†	58.8%†	61.5%†	11.8%†	—	—	—	—
Trey BuchananFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	7	13:26	8.1%	5.3	1.1	1.0	0.4	0.0	1.6	1.4	5–5	100.0%†	8–22	36.4%†	3–3	100.0%†	63.0%†	65.3%†	11.1%†	—	—	—	—
Andrell Burton Jr.Few gamesUnder 100 minutes	2	1:56	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.5	1.5	1–1	100.0%†	0–0	—	0–0	—	100.0%†	100.0%†	0.0%†	—	—	—	—
Jadyn Cascio JensenFew gamesUnder 100 minutes	1	1:59	0.2%	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0–0	—	0–1	0.0%†	0–0	—	0.0%†	0.0%†	0.0%†	—	—	—	—
Team, games with logs · per game	29 games			74.4	36.4	13.8	not published	2.2	11.0	not published	554–1052	52.7%	227–668	34.0%	368–511	72.0%	52.0%	55.5%	29.7%
Sum of players				74.4	33.2	13.8	5.5	2.2	10.7	17.4	Shooting residuals: see Player Lines Against Team Totals.
Residual: team minus players				0.0	+3.2	0.0	not published	0.0	+0.3	not published

G: logged games. Team Min%: share of team minutes on court (40 per game plus overtime). 2P, 3P and FT show made–attempted. † Few attempts: under 100 FGA, 50 3PA or 25 FTA. Few G: under 10 games. <100 min: under 100 minutes. Last Five Team Games columns show change from the season value and hide on narrow screens.

Speculative Compensation · 2025–26β

Estimated share of the school's revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball. Not observed pay.

Team Pool: $260K; 80% Range $90K to $670K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $250K to $265K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Joe Sayler	81.5%	$26K	$5K to $81K	13.0%	$25K to $27K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaden Jackson	79.7%	$39K	$10K to $115K	15.9%	$37K to $39K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Kalen Garry	75.2%	$42K	$12K to $125K	16.3%	$41K to $43K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Matthew Mors	70.3%	$61K	$19K to $200K	21.6%	$59K to $62K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Damon Wilkinson	60.7%	$21K	$4K to $70K	9.9%	$20K to $21K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Alec Squires	36.0%	$12K	$3K to $40K	6.0%	$12K in all four	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Luke Haertle	35.1%	$10K	$2K to $34K	5.3%	$10K to $11K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bubz Alvarez	22.8%	$4K	$1K to $14K	1.2%	$3K to $4K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Caleb Delzell	20.4%	$5K	$1K to $20K	2.8%	$5K to $6K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Trey Buchanan	9.2%	$4K	$1K to $12K	1.8%	$4K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jaden Rogers	8.5%	$3K	$1K to $10K	1.5%	$3K in all four	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Andrell Burton Jr.	0.4%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jadyn Cascio Jensen	0.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.8%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$260K	$90K to $670K	100%	$250K to $265K	—

What-If Calculator · Speculativeβ

Re-runs the 4,000 joint draws with your inputs. The address saves your inputs.

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, South Dakota State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,622,597	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$2,622,597
Athletics department expenses	$28,715,906
Athletics department revenue	$28,715,906

Team Totalsβ

Season per game, 29 games, 1,977 possessions. Observed box-score sums, unadjusted. Definitions

Team and opponent season totals
Statistic	Team	Opponents
Points	74.4	74.5
Field goals made	26.9	25.2
Field goals attempted	59.3	57.6
3-pointers made	7.8	9.2
3-pointers attempted	23.0	27.1
Free throws made	12.7	14.8
Free throws attempted	17.6	19.9
Offensive rebounds	10.6	8.7
Defensive rebounds	25.8	24.4
Total rebounds	36.4	33.0
Assists	13.8	13.3
Blocks	2.2	2.8
Turnovers	11.0	9.9
Steals	No team figure. Players sum to 160.
Personal fouls	No team figure. Players sum to 505.
Minutes (derived)	200.9	not published

29 of 29 games have player logs. Residual is team total minus sum of players. Team rebounds and team turnovers have no player owner, so a residual is expected. Definitions

Player lines against team totals
Statistic	Status	Team Total, Logged Games	Sum of Players	Residual	Tolerance	Team Total, Games Without Logs
Points	Reconciled	2,157	2,157	0	±10.8	0
Field goals made	Reconciled	781	781	0	±3.9	0
Field goals attempted	Reconciled	1,720	1,720	0	±8.6	0
3-pointers made	Reconciled	227	227	0	±2.0	0
3-pointers attempted	Reconciled	668	668	0	±3.3	0
Free throws made	Reconciled	368	368	0	±2.0	0
Free throws attempted	Reconciled	511	511	0	±2.6	0
Offensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Defensive rebounds	No player split	not published	not published	not published	not published	not published
Total rebounds	Residual shown	1,057	964	+93	±84.6	0
Assists	Reconciled	401	401	0	±2.0	0
Blocks	Reconciled	63	63	0	±2.0	0
Turnovers	Reconciled	319	310	+9	±9.6	0
Steals	No team figure	not published	160	not published	not published	not published
Personal fouls	No team figure	not published	505	not published	not published	not published
Minutes (derived)	Reconciled	5,825	5,806	+19.2	±116.5	0

Model-Implied Player Valueβ

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals.

Open circle: limited evidence. Filled circle: sufficient evidence. Line: zero. No graphic: insufficient evidence.

Net points per 100 possessions, in possession-share order.
Player	Poss. Share	Net and Rangeβ
Joe Sayler	81.5%	+0.3range -0.6 to +1.1Sufficient evidence
Jaden Jackson	79.7%	+1.2range +0.0 to +2.2Sufficient evidence
Kalen Garry	75.2%	+1.4range +0.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence
Matthew Mors	70.3%	+2.8range +1.4 to +3.9Sufficient evidence
Damon Wilkinson	60.7%	+0.3range -0.8 to +1.4Sufficient evidence
Alec Squires	36.0%	+0.2range -1.1 to +1.6Sufficient evidence
Luke Haertle	35.1%	-0.1range -1.0 to +0.8Sufficient evidence
Bubz Alvarez	22.8%	-2.3range -3.5 to -1.5Sufficient evidence
Caleb Delzell	20.4%	-0.6range -1.6 to +0.3Sufficient evidence
Trey Buchanan	9.2%	-0.3range -1.3 to +0.6Limited evidence
Jaden Rogers	8.5%	-0.9range -1.9 to +0.2Limited evidence
Andrell Burton Jr.	0.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence
Jadyn Cascio Jensen	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence

Team Aggregate of Player Values, 2026β

Summary of the player values below. Split role: descriptive: not used in fit or gates. Model nil-value-v3. Definitions · NIL Methodology

Average value over five on-court slots, net points per 100 possessions: +10.2range +9.3 to +11.0Sufficient evidence

200 joint draws. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile. Player ranges cannot be added.

11 valued players hold 99.9% of on-court time. 2 without a value (under 300 possessions) hold 0.1%, counted at replacement level -9.5. Limited-evidence players hold 3.5%.

NIL Methodology · Scheduling and Model-Implied Value