Wisconsin

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Wisconsin, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
John Blackwell	81.5%	+5.1range +3.8 to +6.1Sufficient evidence	+7.9range +7.0 to +8.5Sufficient evidence	$780KspeculativeLoading	$530K to $1.20MLoading
Nick Boyd	78.8%	+3.7range +2.5 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	+6.9range +6.1 to +7.6Sufficient evidence	$575KspeculativeLoading	$370K to $865KLoading
Nolan Winter	65.8%	+6.0range +4.6 to +7.3Sufficient evidence	+6.8range +6.1 to +7.5Sufficient evidence	$765KspeculativeLoading	$480K to $1.35MLoading
Andrew Rohde	63.7%	+0.7range -0.5 to +2.0Sufficient evidence	+4.3range +3.7 to +4.9Sufficient evidence	$225KspeculativeLoading	$45K to $420KLoading
Aleksas Bieliauskas	52.7%	+2.3range +1.0 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	+4.1range +3.6 to +4.6Sufficient evidence	$300KspeculativeLoading	$120K to $485KLoading
Austin Rapp	49.0%	+2.9range +1.4 to +4.2Sufficient evidence	+4.0range +3.5 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	$305KspeculativeLoading	$165K to $480KLoading
Braeden Carrington	43.2%	+1.0range -0.4 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	+3.0range +2.5 to +3.5Sufficient evidence	$180KspeculativeLoading	$41K to $320KLoading
Jack Janicki	29.4%	+1.7range +0.6 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.9 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$155KspeculativeLoading	$60K to $255KLoading
Will Garlock	13.7%	-0.5range -1.5 to +0.5Limited evidence	+0.8range +0.7 to +0.9Limited evidence	$52KspeculativeLoading	$20K to $99KLoading
Hayden Jones	13.2%	-1.3range -2.0 to -0.4Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Limited evidence	$43KspeculativeLoading	$18K to $88KLoading
Zach Kinziger	5.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Jack Robison	1.6%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Riccardo Greppi	0.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading
Isaac Gard	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$25Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$14K to $40KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.60M; 80% Range $2.60M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.60M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 14; 4 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
John Blackwell	81.5%	$780K	$530K to $1.20M	21.5%	$780K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Nick Boyd	78.8%	$575K	$370K to $865K	16.2%	$575K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Nolan Winter	65.8%	$765K	$480K to $1.35M	20.9%	$765K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Andrew Rohde	63.7%	$225K	$45K to $420K	6.8%	$225K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aleksas Bieliauskas	52.7%	$300K	$120K to $485K	8.8%	$300K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Austin Rapp	49.0%	$305K	$165K to $480K	9.0%	$305K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Braeden Carrington	43.2%	$180K	$41K to $320K	5.3%	$180K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jack Janicki	29.4%	$155K	$60K to $255K	4.6%	$155K in all four	$25K	Sufficient evidence
Will Garlock	13.7%	$52K	$20K to $99K	1.5%	$52K in all four	$25K	Limited evidence
Hayden Jones	13.2%	$43K	$18K to $88K	1.2%	$43K in all four	$25K	Limited evidence
Zach Kinziger	5.8%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Jack Robison	1.6%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Riccardo Greppi	0.9%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Isaac Gard	0.7%	$25K	$14K to $40K	0.7%	$25K in all four	$25K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.60M	$2.60M to $4.95M	100%	$3.60M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, University of Wisconsin-Madison (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$19,869,281
Men's basketball expenses	$12,464,124
Athletics department expenses	$180,525,755
Athletics department revenue	$190,503,289

Coverage and exclusions

31 of 35 games passed lineup acceptance (89%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

4 of 35 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$19,869,281	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$12,464,124	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	3
3 or more days	31

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.5
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology